黄安伟 报道 2012年11月15日
北京——周四，以习近平为首的新一届领导班子集体亮相，中国共产党完成了执政60多年来的第二次平稳权力交接。习近平的父亲是一位受人尊崇的革命领袖和经济改革家，他本人也将担负重任，领导中国走向更有可持续性的增长模式，使中国崛起为全球强国。
对于这个13亿人口的大国来说，这一次的权力移交相当动荡，其间充满了丑闻和激烈的政治斗争，让中共承受了1989年学生运动以来最大的一次挑战。周四中午12点前的几分钟，在新一届中央委员会进行确认投票之后，59岁的习近平信步走上人民大会堂铺着红毯的讲台。和他一起的是新一届中共中央政治局常委会的其他六名成员，这一精英团体将会对中国经济、外交政策和其他重大问题做出关键决策。他们亮相前，官方通讯社新华社宣布了新一届领导班子的组成。
按图放大
Mark Ralston/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
中共新一届领导核心今天上午在习近平的带领下集体亮相，习近平时代揭开序幕。从左到右依次为：张高丽、刘云山、张德江、习近平、李克强、俞正声、王岐山。
按图放大
Ding Lin/Xinhua, via Reuters
中共新一届领导核心今天上午在习近平的带领下集体亮相，习近平时代揭开序幕。从左到右依次为：习近平、李克强、张德江、俞正声、刘云山、王岐山、张高丽。
身穿深色西装、系着酒红色领带的习近平神情轻松，他说，“我们完全有理由自豪，但我们自豪而不自满。我们党面临着许多严峻挑战，党内存在着许多亟待解决的问题。尤其是一些党员干部中发生的贪污腐败、脱离群众、形式主义、官僚主义等问题。”他还补充说，“打铁还需自身硬。”
习近平和其他一些“红色贵族”成员登上党内顶层，意味着所谓的“太子党”已经确立了突出政治力量的地位。由于他们的出身，他们认为自己是1949年革命成功的继承人，拥有与生俱来的权威。
“我认为，这次换届的重点是连续性，而不是改变，”新加坡国立大学(National University of Singapore)的中国政治学者包子岳说。
中国精英阶层的呼声日渐强烈，要求习近平支持中国经济和政治体制的进一步开放。批评人士指出，尽管中国已经崛起为世界第二大经济体和影响力不断加大的地区强国，但在即将离职的党总书记胡锦涛治下的十年间，中国的经济和政治体制改革停滞不前。
周四， 69岁的胡锦涛也把中央军事委员会主席一职交给了习近平，这是自1976年命运多舛的华国锋接任最高领导人以来，中国领导人首次同时就任党和军队的最高领导人。这夯实了习近平借此巩固权力的根基，尽管他还需要和党内元老的残余势力进行斗争。
在新一届领导人亮相的前一天，为时一周的中共十八大拉下帷幕。在闭幕式上，胡锦涛最后一次以党总书记的身份现身，七名政治局常务委员也退位离职。
习近平以为人低调且善于建立共识闻名。他在北京的领导人大院里度过了童年，后来却被迫在陕西省的窑洞村子过了七年艰苦生活，因为他的父亲在文化大革命期间遭到整肃。
他的第一份工作是给北京的一名高级将领当助手，随后在省级官场中扶摇直上，包括福建省和浙江省，这两个沿海省份以私营企业和对台交流著称。习近平的职位和家庭背景也让他和一些军方领导人建立了紧密的私人关系。他的妻子是著名歌手彭丽媛。他们的女儿以假名字在哈佛大学就读。
胡锦涛放弃军委主席之举为以后的权力交接提供了重要的制度先例，还可能让其政治遗产更加受人称道。在中国政治中，领导人在退休后仍会尽量扩大自身的影响力，直到年事已高，他们或是紧握职位不放，或是在重大决策中发出自己的声音。
胡锦涛之前的党总书记和国家主席江泽民就做到了这两样：他在2002年让出党内职位后还紧握军队职权长达两年，导致党内矛盾加剧。在最近几个月中，他极力安插亲信进入常委会，该机构的成员通常是通过党内元老和现任领导人讨价还价来确定。
常委会成员由九名削减到七名。这一变化的原因之一是，包括习近平在内的一些党内领导人认为，各方利益在常委会当中的过度体现会导致决策过程出现僵局。缩小的常委会也让控制国家安全力量的职权有所降低，一些官员称这一职权已变得过于强大。
在新一届常委会的七个席位中，江泽民的盟友占了五个，说明他依然拥有相当大的权力，尽管他曾在去年罹患严重疾病。胡锦涛的亲信李克强预计将在明年春天获得国家总理的职位，届时习近平会当上主席。上一届常务委员会即将卸任，李克强和习近平是唯一留任的成员。
在新一届常委会中，其他官员的排名顺序及其将来的职权分别是：全国人大常委会委员长张德江、政协主席俞正声、副主席兼宣传部门主管刘云山、中纪委书记王岐山，以及协助管理经济的国务院常务副总理张高丽。
按照早些时候的传闻，太子党成员薄熙来本来是常委席位的一名竞争者，但他已经在今年春天倒台，起因是他妻子被控谋杀一名英国商人所引发的丑闻。
进入这一阵容的都是保守派和年纪较大的官员。关于共产党领导人年龄限制的不成文规则意味着他们中的一些人必须在2017年的下届党代会上退休，届时习近平将有机会任命他的其他盟友。
新华社宣布，王岐山将担任中国共产党中央纪律检查委员会书记，这个机构负责调查腐败和其他违纪行为。
几个月来，有传言称，王岐山将主管经济事务，但是，他似乎已经被排挤出了这方面的工作。一些分析人士称，这一局面对经济进一步自由化不利。不过，王岐山在金融行业有着可观的背景，他在其中的关系网可以成为反腐调查的一件利器。
王岐山和习近平一样，是人们预计会成为常委的三到四个太子党当中的一员。太子党并不是一个步调一致的政治派系，他们当中充斥着私人关系和意识形态的竞争，但他们的家庭关系或许会增强他们的信心，让他们敢于行使权力、强力推动大胆变革。与此同时，在中国的政治经济环境下，这一类人已经发展得非常富有。在中国，官员和国有企业携手掠夺利益，常常伴随着私营企业的牺牲。即便是那些支持经济或政治体制自由化的太子党，依然坚信党应该拥有主导地位。人们认为，他们推动的各种改革，目的都是确保党的生存。
“那些跟习近平走得很近的顾问确实想进行改革，前提却是他们必须维护共产党的统治。”一名前部长的儿子、历史学家章立凡说。“他们认为共产党及其统治是他们父辈的遗产。所以他们不愿冒险失去党的统治。他们心目中的改革是有限度的。”
习近平将不得不把他任期的头几年用来建设一个权力基础，这将限制他实施重大政策措施的机会。政治知情人士表示，在他的第一个五年任期里，他可能会支持经济的进一步开放。假如他或其他领导人想在政治制度上做些实验，最早也得等到他的第二个任期，尽管真正的经济改革同时需要政治改革。
习近平和即将上任的领导人也将不得不应对党内元老的持续影响，包括胡锦涛和江泽民。十八大在本周三结束之后，现在已经有了大约20名退休常委，他们中的许多人都想在重大决策中拥有话语权。
不过，江泽民授权传记的作者、依然与高级官员关系密切的美国商人罗伯特・劳伦斯・库恩(Robert Lawrence Kuhn)预测，习近平可能会让那些预计他会延续现状的人失算。压力将迫使他很快行动，因为中国需要构建一个更具可持续性的经济体系，这个体系较少地依赖大型项目投资和出口，更多地依赖国内消费和私营企业。“到了现在，不改革的风险已经高于改革的风险，”库恩说。
黄安伟(Edward Wong)是《纽约时报》驻京记者。安思乔(Jonathan Ansfield)对本文有报道贡献。
翻译：林蒙克、陶梦萦
——纽约时报
Xi Jinping Takes China's Helm as New Poliburo Unveiled
November 15, 2012
BEIJING — Completing only its second orderly hand-over of power in more than six decades of rule, the Chinese Communist Party on Thursday unveiled a new leadership slate headed by Xi Jinping, the son of a revered revolutionary leader and economic reformer, who will face the task of guiding China to a more sustainable model of growth and managing the country’s rise as a global power.
For this nation of 1.3 billion, the transition culminates a tumultuous period plagued by scandals and intense political rivalry that presented the party with some of its greatest challenges since the student uprising of 1989. Minutes before noon on Thursday, after a confirmation vote by the party’s new Central Committee, Mr. Xi, 59, strode onto a red-carpeted stage at the Great Hall of the People accompanied by six other party officials who will form the new Politburo Standing Committee, the elite group that makes crucial decisions on the economy, foreign policy and other major issues. Before their appearance, the new lineup was announced by Xinhua, the state news agency.
按图放大
Mark Ralston/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
The Communist Party of China's new Politburo Standing Committee, the nation's top decision-making body. From left: Zhang Gaoli, Liu Yunshan, Zhang Dejiang, Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, Yu Zhengsheng and Wang Qishan.
“We have every reason to be proud — proud, but not complacent,” said Mr. Xi, looking relaxed in a dark suit and a wine-red tie. “Inside the party, there are many problems that need be addressed, especially the problems among party members and officials of corruption and taking bribes, being out of touch with the people, undue emphasis on formalities and bureaucracy, and other issues.” He added, “To be turned into iron, the metal itself must be strong.”
The ascension of Mr. Xi and other members of the “red nobility” to the top posts means that the so-called princelings have come into their own as a prominent political force. Because of their parentage, they believe themselves to be the heirs of the revolution that succeeded in 1949, endowed with the mandate of authority that that status confers.
“I think the emphasis is on continuity over change this time around,” said Bo Zhiyue, a scholar of Chinese politics at the National University of Singapore.
Mr. Xi is facing a growing chorus of calls from Chinese elites to support greater openness in China’s economic and political systems, which critics say have stagnated in the last decade under the departing party chief, Hu Jintao, despite the country’s emergence as the world’s second-largest economy and a growing regional power.
Mr. Hu, 69, also turned over the post of civilian chairman of the military on Thursday to Mr. Xi, which made this transition the first time since the promotion of the ill-fated Hua Guofeng in 1976 that a Chinese leader had taken office as head of the party and the military at the same time. That gives Mr. Xi a stronger base from which to consolidate his power, even as he grapples with the continuing influence of party elders.
The unveiling came the day after the weeklong 18th Party Congress ended as Mr. Hu made his final appearance as party chief at a closing ceremony and seven standing committee members stepped down.
Mr. Xi is known for shunning the spotlight and being a skilled consensus builder. He spent his childhood in the leadership compounds of Beijing, but was forced to toil in a village of cave homes in Shaanxi Province for seven years during the Cultural Revolution, when his father was purged.
His first job was as an aide to a top general in Beijing. He then rose through the party ranks in the provinces, including Fujian and Zhejiang, two coastal regions known for private entrepreneurship and exchanges with Taiwan. Mr. Xi’s jobs and family background have allowed him to build personal ties to some military leaders. He is married to a celebrity singer, Peng Liyuan, and they have a daughter attending Harvard under a pseudonym.
Mr. Hu’s abdication of the military chairmanship sets an important institutional precedent for future successions and may put his legacy in a more favorable light. In Chinese politics, retired leaders try to maximize their influence well into old age, either by clinging to titles or by making their opinions known on important decisions.
Jiang Zemin, Mr. Hu’s predecessor as party chief and president, did both: he held on to the military post for two years after giving up his party title in 2002, which led to heightened friction within the party. And in recent months, he has worked to get his protégés installed on the standing committee, which is usually assembled through horse trading by party elders and leaders.
The committee was trimmed to seven members from nine. One reason for that change is that some party leaders, including Mr. Xi, believe that an overrepresentation of interests on the committee has led to gridlock in decision making. The smaller committee has also resulted in a downgrading of the party post that controls the security apparatus, which some officials asserted had grown too powerful.
The new standing committee has allies of Mr. Jiang in five of seven seats, reflecting his considerable power despite being hit by serious illness. Li Keqiang, a protégé of Mr. Hu’s, is expected to get the state title of prime minister next spring, when Mr. Xi becomes president. Mr. Li and Mr. Xi were the only members on the departing standing committee who are remaining part of the group.
The other officials on the new committee in order of ranking and their expected portfolios are Zhang Dejiang, head of the National People’s Congress; Yu Zhengsheng, who will run a similar advisory body; Liu Yunshan, vice president and overseer of propaganda; Wang Qishan, the head of an anticorruption agency; and Zhang Gaoli, the executive vice premier, who helps manage the economy.
One princeling said earlier to be a contender for the committee, Bo Xilai, was felled last spring by a scandal after his wife was accused of killing a British businessman.
The lineup is stocked with conservatives and older officials. An unspoken age limit for party leaders means that several of them will retire at the next party congress, in 2017, at which point Mr. Xi might have an opening to get other allies appointed.
Xinhua announced that Mr. Wang is the new head of the party’s Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, a group charged with investigating corruption and other infractions.
For months, there was talk that Mr. Wang would get an economic portfolio, but he appears to have been pushed aside for that job, which some analysts have said bodes ill for further economic liberalization. But Mr. Wang’s network in the finance industry, where he has considerable experience, could be a powerful tool in corruption investigations.
Mr. Wang joins Mr. Xi as one of three or four princelings on the projected committee. The princelings are not a coherent political faction, and their ranks are rife with personal and ideological rivalries. Their family connections may mean a greater confidence with wielding power and pressing for bolder changes. At the same time, that class has grown wealthy off China’s political economy, in which officials and state-owned enterprises work together to reap benefits, often at the expense of private entrepreneurship. Even those princelings who support liberalizing the economy or the political system still believe in the primacy of the party, and their push for various reforms is seen as an effort to ensure the party’s survival.
“These people around Xi Jinping who advise him and with whom he’s close, they do want reform, but on the condition that they maintain the rule of the Communist Party,” said Zhang Lifan, a historian and son of a former minister. “They consider the Communist Party and its rule a heritage from their fathers. So they’re not willing to risk losing it. They have limitations on how far they want reform to go.”
Mr. Xi will have to spend his first years building a power base, limiting the opportunity to make major policy moves. He might, however, support a further opening of the economy in his first five-year term, some political insiders said. If he or other leaders want to experiment with the political system, they would do that in his second term, even though true economic changes need political transformations as well.
Mr. Xi and the incoming leaders will also have to contend with the continuing influence of party elders, including Mr. Hu and Mr. Jiang. With the end of the 18th Party Congress on Wednesday, there are now about 20 retired standing committee members, and many of them want a say in major decisions.
But Robert Lawrence Kuhn, an American businessman who wrote an authorized biography of Jiang Zemin and remains close to senior officials, predicted Mr. Xi would surprise those expecting him to adhere to the status quo. The pressures on China to create a more sustainable economic system — one that relies less on investment in large projects and exports and more on domestic consumption and private business — will compel him to act soon. “The risks of not reforming are now higher than the risks of reforming,” Mr. Kuhn said.
没有评论:
发表评论