tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-56702681953572474392024-03-18T14:32:00.160-07:00新世纪 NewCenturyNet张伟国 By Zhang Weiguo (非赢利同仁园地,无广告、无稿费,所转文稿如有版权要求请联系博主)NCNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16079153443162336173noreply@blogger.comBlogger26108125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5670268195357247439.post-38190393655470882742024-03-18T13:51:00.000-07:002024-03-18T14:17:44.625-07:00余杰:习近平杀害刘晓波,普京杀害纳瓦尼<div dir="ltr">余杰 RFA 20240318</div><div dir="ltr"><br /><div><br /></div><div><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, 华文黑体, SimSun, 宋体, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">刘晓波与纳瓦尼都是飞蛾扑火的英雄</strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, 华文黑体, SimSun, 宋体, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, 华文黑体, SimSun, 宋体, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, 华文黑体, SimSun, 宋体, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><img alt="26708rfa8bc48bba2-p258-001-2.jpg" class="gmail-image-richtext gmail-image-inline gmail-captioned" src="https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/yujie/yj-02262024152958.html/26708rfa8bc48bba2-p258-001-2.jpg" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; float: left; height: auto; margin-right: 15px; margin-top: 10px; max-width: 100%; padding-bottom: 5px; vertical-align: middle; width: auto;" title="26708rfa8bc48bba2-p258-001-2.jpg" />二零二四年二月十六日,俄罗斯反对派领导人、人权律师纳瓦尼在靠近北极圈的监狱中突然死亡,终年四十七岁。他的去世被各界普遍认为是来自俄罗斯总统普京的政治暗杀。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, 华文黑体, SimSun, 宋体, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">三年多以前,纳瓦尼选择从德国返回俄罗斯、继续反对普京政权时,他就已预见到了自己将遭遇的一切。那必定是极为严酷而可怕的命运。普京从来不曾对批评他的人心慈手软。此前,纳瓦尼已遭受过数次暗杀,最严重的一次是他从托木斯克乘飞机返回莫斯科时,在飞机上出现中毒迹象,飞机紧急降落在鄂木斯克。随后,他被送往德国接受治疗。他在出院后首度接受媒体访问时,指控普京是对他下毒的幕后黑手,并发誓要返回俄罗斯继续推动反对运动。当他一飞抵莫斯科机场,立即遭到逮捕,然后就是日渐严苛的诉讼和审判,最后的终点是死亡。 </span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, 华文黑体, SimSun, 宋体, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><br /></p><div class="css-1dbjc4n r-18u37iz r-kzbkwu" style="-webkit-box-align: stretch; -webkit-box-direction: normal; -webkit-box-orient: horizontal; align-items: stretch; border: 0px solid black; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: row; flex-shrink: 0; margin: 0px; min-height: 0px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 12px; position: relative; z-index: 0;"><div class="css-1dbjc4n r-1ny4l3l" style="-webkit-box-align: stretch; 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margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"></span></p><div class="css-1dbjc4n" style="-webkit-box-align: stretch; -webkit-box-direction: normal; -webkit-box-orient: vertical; align-items: stretch; border: 0px solid black; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; margin: 0px; min-height: 0px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; z-index: 0;"><div class="css-901oao r-18jsvk2 r-1dqbpge r-1qd0xha r-adyw6z r-16dba41 r-135wba7 r-bcqeeo r-bnwqim r-qvutc0" data-testid="tweetText" dir="auto" lang="zh" style="border: 0px solid black; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0f1419; cursor: text; display: inline; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 20px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: 24px; margin: 0px; min-width: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; position: relative; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0" style="border: 0px solid black; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; display: inline; font: inherit; margin: 0px; min-width: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; white-space: inherit;">【俄罗斯开棺悼念反对派领袖, 中国的纳瓦利内在哪?】
数千 </span><span class="r-18u37iz" style="-webkit-box-direction: normal; -webkit-box-orient: horizontal; flex-direction: row;"><a class="css-4rbku5 css-18t94o4 css-901oao css-16my406 r-1loqt21 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0" dir="ltr" href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/%E4%BF%84%E7%BD%97%E6%96%AF?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1763669557841916241%7Ctwgr%5Eece940c25dd09dc823dfcc6a866b020bced736bf%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rfa.org%2Fmandarin%2Fpinglun%2Fyujie%2Fyj-02262024152958.html&src=hashtag_click" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" role="link" style="border: 0px solid black; box-sizing: border-box; color: #006fd6; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-width: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; white-space: inherit;" target="_blank">#俄罗斯</a></span><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0" style="border: 0px solid black; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; display: inline; font: inherit; margin: 0px; min-width: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; white-space: inherit;"> 民众不顾当局警告,上街告别狱中逝世的反对派领袖, 高呼“</span><span class="r-18u37iz" style="-webkit-box-direction: normal; -webkit-box-orient: horizontal; flex-direction: row;"><a class="css-4rbku5 css-18t94o4 css-901oao css-16my406 r-1loqt21 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0" dir="ltr" href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/%E7%BA%B3%E7%93%A6%E5%88%A9%E5%86%85?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1763669557841916241%7Ctwgr%5Eece940c25dd09dc823dfcc6a866b020bced736bf%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rfa.org%2Fmandarin%2Fpinglun%2Fyujie%2Fyj-02262024152958.html&src=hashtag_click" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" role="link" style="border: 0px solid black; box-sizing: border-box; color: #006fd6; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-width: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; white-space: inherit;" target="_blank">#纳瓦利内</a></span><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0" style="border: 0px solid black; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; display: inline; font: inherit; margin: 0px; min-width: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; white-space: inherit;">”,“你不怕,我们也不怕”,“没有普京的俄罗斯”等口号。《纽约时报》发文,将李老师,任志强,高智晟和 </span><span class="r-18u37iz" style="-webkit-box-direction: normal; -webkit-box-orient: horizontal; flex-direction: row;"><a class="css-4rbku5 css-18t94o4 css-901oao css-16my406 r-1loqt21 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0" dir="ltr" href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/%E5%88%98%E6%99%93%E6%B3%A2?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1763669557841916241%7Ctwgr%5Eece940c25dd09dc823dfcc6a866b020bced736bf%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rfa.org%2Fmandarin%2Fpinglun%2Fyujie%2Fyj-02262024152958.html&src=hashtag_click" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" role="link" style="border: 0px solid black; box-sizing: border-box; color: #006fd6; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-width: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; white-space: inherit;" target="_blank">#刘晓波</a></span><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0" style="border: 0px solid black; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; display: inline; font: inherit; margin: 0px; min-width: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; white-space: inherit;">…</span><a class="css-4rbku5 css-18t94o4 css-901oao css-16my406 r-1cvl2hr r-1loqt21 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0" data-testid="tweet-text-show-more-link" href="https://mobile.twitter.com/RFA_Chinese/status/1763669557841916241?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1763669557841916241%7Ctwgr%5Eece940c25dd09dc823dfcc6a866b020bced736bf%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rfa.org%2Fmandarin%2Fpinglun%2Fyujie%2Fyj-02262024152958.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" role="link" style="border: 0px solid black; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1d9bf0; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-width: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; white-space: inherit;" target="_blank"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0" style="border: 0px solid black; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; display: inline; font: inherit; margin: 0px; min-width: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; white-space: inherit;"> </span><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0" style="border: 0px solid black; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; display: inline; font: inherit; margin: 0px; min-width: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; white-space: inherit;">显示更多</span></a></div><div class="css-901oao r-18jsvk2 r-1dqbpge r-1qd0xha r-adyw6z r-16dba41 r-135wba7 r-bcqeeo r-bnwqim r-qvutc0" data-testid="tweetText" dir="auto" lang="zh" style="border: 0px solid black; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0f1419; cursor: text; display: inline; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 20px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: 24px; margin: 0px; min-width: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; position: relative; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></div></div><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, 华文黑体, SimSun, 宋体, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ruilJr4fObs" width="320" youtube-src-id="ruilJr4fObs"></iframe></div><br /><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, 华文黑体, SimSun, 宋体, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">七年前去世的刘晓波也是这样一位明知不可为而为之的英雄。一九八九年的春天,当邓小平磨刀霍霍、厉兵秣马之际,刘晓波却放弃在美国哥伦比亚大学做访问学者、隔岸观火、岁月静好的日子,毅然搭机返回中国,与广场上疲惫而沮丧的学生和市民们同呼吸、共命运。那一天,从纽约飞往北京的班机上只有屈指可数的几个乘客。在日本转机时,有匆匆逃离中国的人士劝他说,北京即将出现烈火焚城、玉石俱焚的惨剧,千万不要回去做牺牲品。但刘晓波还是一咬牙,继续他的航程。后来的故事就众所周知了:天安门广场上的绝食、与戒严部队的谈判、被秘密警察绑架、入狱、审判,然后是一次又一次的入狱,以及如影随形的监控。他再也没有过上一天像当初在美国那样的自由日子,直到他在全世界众目睽睽之下骨瘦如柴的死亡。</span></p><div class="gmail-twitter-tweet gmail-twitter-tweet-rendered" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; display: flex; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, 华文黑体, SimSun, 宋体, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.9px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 10px; max-width: 550px; width: 550px;"></div><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, 华文黑体, SimSun, 宋体, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">刘晓波与纳瓦尼具有相似的人格特质,那就是烈士精神与殉道激情,那就是对各自的国家和人民的无穷无尽的爱。在一九八九年回国前夕,刘晓波就说过:"要下地狱,就不能抱怨黑暗。"在法庭上的最后陈词中他又说:"为践行宪法赋予的言论自由之权利,当尽到一个中国公民的社会责任,我的所作所为无罪,即便为此被指控,也无怨言。"而拉瓦尼也早已知道普京会对他做什么:"如果他们决定杀掉我,这表示我们确实够强大,因此我们要善用这股力量,绝不屈服。我们还不了解自己实际上有多强大。"</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, 华文黑体, SimSun, 宋体, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">刘晓波与纳瓦尼都知道他们面对是一个何等邪恶的政权。刘晓波说:"自从中共掌权以来,中共历代独裁者最在乎的是手中的权力,而最不在乎的就是人的生命。"拉瓦尼说:"我鄙视普京的统一俄国党,这是一个腐败的党,盗贼和骗子的党,行动起来,消灭这个党,是每一个爱国公民的责任。"</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, 华文黑体, SimSun, 宋体, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">刘晓波和纳瓦尼都认为,改变的力量在民间、在自身。刘晓波写过一本书,书名就叫《未来自由中国在民间》。他说:"自由中国的出现,与其寄希望于统治者的'新政',远不如寄希望于民间'新力量'的不断扩张,民间尊严在观念上和法律上得以确立之日,就是国人的人权得到制度性保障之时。"纳瓦尼也说:"你们绝不要放弃,要记住我们是一支巨大的力量,只是因为我们没有意识到自己有多么强大,我们才困于这些卑鄙小人的重轭。"他还说:"邪恶的胜利只需要善良人们的无动于衷。因此,我们绝不能无动于衷。"</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, 华文黑体, SimSun, 宋体, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">刘晓波和纳瓦尼都从不曾放弃希望。刘晓波说:"我期待我的国家是一片可以自由表达的土地,在这里,每一位国民的发言都会得到同等的善待。……我期待,我将是中国绵绵不绝的文字狱的最后一个受害者,从此之后不再有人因言获罪。"而纳瓦尼曾经写道:"我知道黑暗终将消失,我们终将获胜,俄罗斯终将成为一个和平、光明和幸福的国家。"</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, 华文黑体, SimSun, 宋体, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, 华文黑体, SimSun, 宋体, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, 华文黑体, SimSun, 宋体, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">习近平与普京都是残民以逞的独裁者</strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, 华文黑体, SimSun, 宋体, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, 华文黑体, SimSun, 宋体, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, 华文黑体, SimSun, 宋体, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">在刘晓波与纳瓦尼的对立面,是自以为雄才大略、为所欲为的习近平和普京。习近平说:"普京总统是我最好的知心朋友。"普京说:"习近平主席是世界公认的领导者。"历史,中俄两国领导人从未如此惺惺相惜。普京以斯大林为师,习近平以毛泽东为师,这两个暴君又彼此为镜像和榜样,展开一场杀戮异己的屠夫友谊赛。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, 华文黑体, SimSun, 宋体, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">多年来,普京的双手上已沾满鲜血。他在杀人榜单上的位置虽然还赶不上斯大林,但他还在奋勇直追、不断靠近中。被他杀害的人士包括:揭黑记者、人权活动家、反对派政治人物、少数族裔等等。其中,最具代表性的人物有:二零零四年,一直大声批评普京的女记者安娜·波利特科夫斯卡娅在俄罗斯航空公司的航班上喝下了有毒的茶水,但活了下来。两年后,她在自己公寓楼的电梯里中枪身亡。二零一五年二月二十七日,叶利钦时代曾任政府第一副总理的涅姆佐夫、普京的最猛烈的批评者之一,在克里姆林宫附近的一座桥上,被人从背后射入四颗子弹而死亡。此案一直没有告破,因为所有的线索都指向普京,没有人敢往下查。二零一八年二月二十七日,美国首都华盛顿哥伦比亚特区正式将俄罗斯使馆前广场改名为"涅姆佐夫广场"。二零零九年十一月十六日,因揭发俄罗斯政府的腐败而被关押的税务会计马格尼茨基在监狱中死亡。他的死亡促使美国和多个西方国家通过了《全球马格尼茨基人权问责法》,依据此法律,可以对独裁国家侵犯人权的官员及其直系亲属展开制裁。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, 华文黑体, SimSun, 宋体, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">俄罗斯的暴政,从沙皇到斯大林再到普京,都是赤裸裸的,疯狂的,血腥的;中国的暴政,从秦始皇到毛泽东再到习近平,都有一层东方专制主义的面纱,更伪善,也更隐蔽。如果说俄国是一枪致命,那么中国是凌迟处死。习近平一般不使用明目张胆的暗杀手段,却让他不喜欢的人在监狱中慢慢腐烂。这就是北极熊与大红龙的差异。二零一四年三月,人权捍卫者曹顺利、西藏政治犯果秀洛桑相继去世,死亡时已被折磨得形销骨立、不成人形。二零一五年,备受藏人尊重的藏族僧侣丹增德勒仁波切在狱中去世,他因莫须有的"爆炸罪"、"煽动分裂国家罪"被判处无期徒刑,身患重病却被狱方剥夺适当的医疗,且不被允许保外就医。二零一六年,政治反对人士彭明死于狱中,他在十多年前被中国特工从缅甸绑架回国,后被以"组织和领导恐怖组织罪"判处无期徒刑。二零一八年,八十二岁高龄的《古兰经》维吾尔文译者、维吾尔宗教领袖穆罕默德·萨利赫·阿吉在拘押中去世。同一年,由于长期遭受酷刑虐待,西藏四十一岁的政治犯雪努班丹死于狱中。二零一七年,异议作家杨天水去世,他因"颠覆国家政权罪"被判处十二年有期徒刑。二零一九年六月,维吾尔族作家努尔穆罕默德·土赫提从新疆拘留营被释放后不久去世,据报他在狱中被剥夺基本的医疗。这张名单只是习近平时代千千万万极权主义受害者中的沧海一粟。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, 华文黑体, SimSun, 宋体, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">刘晓波与纳瓦尼的死亡不是他们的失败。正如法国汉学家白夏所说:"刘晓波到死也没有获得自由,但是他的精神遗产我们可以这样概括:活在真实中,做独立自主的人,谴责遇到的不公正,不要恐惧。"也正如俄语独立媒体美杜莎所说:"纳瓦尔尼像一个英雄那样活着。又像一个英雄那样死去。他的例子告诉我们,就算一个没有任何权力的人,也可以翻转整个世界。"而作为暴君和小丑的普京与习近平,等待他们的只有历史的耻辱柱。</span></p></div></div> NCNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16079153443162336173noreply@blogger.com0Russia61.52401 105.31875633.213776163821151 70.162506 89.834243836178842 140.475006tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5670268195357247439.post-51644572047614546992024-03-18T07:00:00.000-07:002024-03-18T14:30:59.871-07:00奥斯卡 2024:奥斯卡本身就是一部 American Fiction<p><a class="styles_name__Rl9nx" data-test-id="digest/user/rich/display-name" href="https://matters.town/@whynot_wainao" style="-webkit-box-orient: vertical; -webkit-line-clamp: 1; background-color: white; background-position: 50% center; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: cover; border-collapse: inherit; box-sizing: inherit; display: inline !important; font-family: -apple-system, blinkmacsystemfont, "Helvetica Neue", "Segoe UI", roboto, arial, "PingFang TC", "PingFang SC", "Noto Sans TC", "Noto Sans SC", "Noto Sans CJK TC", "Noto Sans CJK SC", "Source Han Sans TW", "Source Han Sans CN", "Microsoft JhengHei", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: var(--font-size-sm); font-weight: var(--font-weight-medium); line-height: 1rem; margin-bottom: -0.12rem; overflow: hidden; padding-bottom: 0.12em; text-decoration-line: none; transition-duration: 0.2s; transition-property: opacity; transition-timing-function: ease-in-out;">歪脑</a> Matters 20240318</p><p><br /></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: grey; font-family: -apple-system, blinkmacsystemfont, "Helvetica Neue", "Segoe UI", roboto, arial, "PingFang TC", "PingFang SC", "Noto Sans TC", "Noto Sans SC", "Noto Sans CJK TC", "Noto Sans CJK SC", "Source Han Sans TW", "Source Han Sans CN", "Microsoft JhengHei", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>什么时候开始奥斯卡变得索然无味呢?或者说,什么时候电影开始变得索然无味呢?比如《周处除三害》在中国大陆走红之后,不少人跳出来分析它以台湾电影身份而成功的密码。这某种程度上回答了第二个问题。第一个问题,可能是当你发现“谁值得赢”的理由到底谁说了算的时候。或者用广东话来讲,它不仅是话事权问题,它还被“搬龙门”。</b></span></span></p><figure class="image" style="background-color: white; background-position: 50% center; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: cover; border-collapse: inherit; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: -apple-system, blinkmacsystemfont, "Helvetica Neue", "Segoe UI", roboto, arial, "PingFang TC", "PingFang SC", "Noto Sans TC", "Noto Sans SC", "Noto Sans CJK TC", "Noto Sans CJK SC", "Source Han Sans TW", "Source Han Sans CN", "Microsoft JhengHei", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin: var(--spacing-x-loose) 0; position: relative; text-align: center;"><picture style="background-position: 50% center; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: cover; border-collapse: inherit; box-sizing: inherit;"><img height="355" loading="lazy" src="https://imagedelivery.net/kDRCweMmqLnTPNlbum-pYA/prod/embed/4588cb33-d0cb-4f7e-af74-4c73e488c511.png/public" srcset="https://imagedelivery.net/kDRCweMmqLnTPNlbum-pYA/prod/embed/4588cb33-d0cb-4f7e-af74-4c73e488c511.png/w=1376,h=5504,fit=scale-down" style="background-position: 50% center; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: cover; border-collapse: inherit; border-style: none; box-sizing: inherit; display: block; margin: 0px auto; max-width: 100%;" width="640" /></picture><figcaption style="background-position: 50% center; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: cover; border-collapse: inherit; box-sizing: inherit; color: var(--color-grey); font-size: var(--font-size-sm-s); line-height: 1.5; margin-top: var(--spacing-x-tight); padding: 0 var(--spacing-base); white-space-collapse: preserve;"></figcaption></figure><p style="background-color: white; background-position: 50% center; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: cover; border-collapse: inherit; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: -apple-system, blinkmacsystemfont, "Helvetica Neue", "Segoe UI", roboto, arial, "PingFang TC", "PingFang SC", "Noto Sans TC", "Noto Sans SC", "Noto Sans CJK TC", "Noto Sans CJK SC", "Source Han Sans TW", "Source Han Sans CN", "Microsoft JhengHei", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin: var(--spacing-loose) 0; padding: 0px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><a href="https://www.wainao.me/wainao-reads/Oscars-are-American-fictions-03132024" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: 50% center; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: cover; border-bottom: 1px solid; border-collapse: inherit; box-sizing: inherit; padding-bottom: 2px; text-decoration-line: none; transition-duration: 0.2s; transition-property: opacity; transition-timing-function: ease-in-out;" target="_blank">原文刊载于歪脑</a></p><p style="background-color: white; background-position: 50% center; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: cover; border-collapse: inherit; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: -apple-system, blinkmacsystemfont, "Helvetica Neue", "Segoe UI", roboto, arial, "PingFang TC", "PingFang SC", "Noto Sans TC", "Noto Sans SC", "Noto Sans CJK TC", "Noto Sans CJK SC", "Source Han Sans TW", "Source Han Sans CN", "Microsoft JhengHei", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin: var(--spacing-loose) 0; padding: 0px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></p><p style="background-color: white; background-position: 50% center; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: cover; border-collapse: inherit; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: -apple-system, blinkmacsystemfont, "Helvetica Neue", "Segoe UI", roboto, arial, "PingFang TC", "PingFang SC", "Noto Sans TC", "Noto Sans SC", "Noto Sans CJK TC", "Noto Sans CJK SC", "Source Han Sans TW", "Source Han Sans CN", "Microsoft JhengHei", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin: var(--spacing-loose) 0; padding: 0px; white-space-collapse: preserve;">文|郑侑安<br class="smart" style="background-position: 50% center; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: cover; border-collapse: inherit; box-sizing: inherit;" />原文发布时间|03/13/2024</p><p style="background-color: white; background-position: 50% center; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: cover; border-collapse: inherit; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: -apple-system, blinkmacsystemfont, "Helvetica Neue", "Segoe UI", roboto, arial, "PingFang TC", "PingFang SC", "Noto Sans TC", "Noto Sans SC", "Noto Sans CJK TC", "Noto Sans CJK SC", "Source Han Sans TW", "Source Han Sans CN", "Microsoft JhengHei", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin: var(--spacing-loose) 0; padding: 0px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></p><p style="background-color: white; background-position: 50% center; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: cover; border-collapse: inherit; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: -apple-system, blinkmacsystemfont, "Helvetica Neue", "Segoe UI", roboto, arial, "PingFang TC", "PingFang SC", "Noto Sans TC", "Noto Sans SC", "Noto Sans CJK TC", "Noto Sans CJK SC", "Source Han Sans TW", "Source Han Sans CN", "Microsoft JhengHei", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; margin: var(--spacing-loose) 0; padding: 0px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span style="font-size: medium;">什么时候开始奥斯卡变得索然无味呢?或者说,什么时候电影开始变得索然无味呢?比如《周处除三害》在中国大陆走红之后,不少人跳出来分析它以台湾电影身份而成功的密码。这某种程度上回答了第二个问题。第一个问题,可能是当你发现“谁值得赢”的理由到底谁说了算的时候。或者用广东话来讲,它不仅是话事权问题,它还被“搬龙门”。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; background-position: 50% center; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: cover; border-collapse: inherit; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: -apple-system, blinkmacsystemfont, "Helvetica Neue", "Segoe UI", roboto, arial, "PingFang TC", "PingFang SC", "Noto Sans TC", "Noto Sans SC", "Noto Sans CJK TC", "Noto Sans CJK SC", "Source Han Sans TW", "Source Han Sans CN", "Microsoft JhengHei", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; margin: var(--spacing-loose) 0; padding: 0px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; background-position: 50% center; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: cover; border-collapse: inherit; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: -apple-system, blinkmacsystemfont, "Helvetica Neue", "Segoe UI", roboto, arial, "PingFang TC", "PingFang SC", "Noto Sans TC", "Noto Sans SC", "Noto Sans CJK TC", "Noto Sans CJK SC", "Source Han Sans TW", "Source Han Sans CN", "Microsoft JhengHei", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; margin: var(--spacing-loose) 0; padding: 0px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span style="font-size: medium;">奥斯卡早期公布结果的时候,嘉宾会说“the winner is…”,后来不知道谁建议,绝大部分人都改成为“the oscar goes to…”,以此彰显大家并非争个输赢,这个形容大有“命运使然”的意思,因为输赢就要有计分和扣分方法,可是运气不需要如此。The Oscar Goes to…像是在描述一个客观中立的事实。由得我们这些看客去争吧,谁好,谁不好。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; background-position: 50% center; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: cover; border-collapse: inherit; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: -apple-system, blinkmacsystemfont, "Helvetica Neue", "Segoe UI", roboto, arial, "PingFang TC", "PingFang SC", "Noto Sans TC", "Noto Sans SC", "Noto Sans CJK TC", "Noto Sans CJK SC", "Source Han Sans TW", "Source Han Sans CN", "Microsoft JhengHei", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; margin: var(--spacing-loose) 0; padding: 0px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; background-position: 50% center; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: cover; border-collapse: inherit; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: -apple-system, blinkmacsystemfont, "Helvetica Neue", "Segoe UI", roboto, arial, "PingFang TC", "PingFang SC", "Noto Sans TC", "Noto Sans SC", "Noto Sans CJK TC", "Noto Sans CJK SC", "Source Han Sans TW", "Source Han Sans CN", "Microsoft JhengHei", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; margin: var(--spacing-loose) 0; padding: 0px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span style="font-size: medium;">另一点是,当我们谈起奥斯卡“想要怎么样”时,听起来像是把整个学院形容成了一个蜂巢,实际上它是由数量庞大的各自为营的会员们组成。奥斯卡想怎么样?它不想怎么样,它最终是一个统计结果,它本身没有意识。这些不是2024年的奥斯卡,它其实是每一年的奥斯卡。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; background-position: 50% center; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: cover; border-collapse: inherit; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: -apple-system, blinkmacsystemfont, "Helvetica Neue", "Segoe UI", roboto, arial, "PingFang TC", "PingFang SC", "Noto Sans TC", "Noto Sans SC", "Noto Sans CJK TC", "Noto Sans CJK SC", "Source Han Sans TW", "Source Han Sans CN", "Microsoft JhengHei", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; margin: var(--spacing-loose) 0; padding: 0px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; background-position: 50% center; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: cover; border-collapse: inherit; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: -apple-system, blinkmacsystemfont, "Helvetica Neue", "Segoe UI", roboto, arial, "PingFang TC", "PingFang SC", "Noto Sans TC", "Noto Sans SC", "Noto Sans CJK TC", "Noto Sans CJK SC", "Source Han Sans TW", "Source Han Sans CN", "Microsoft JhengHei", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; margin: var(--spacing-loose) 0; padding: 0px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span style="font-size: medium;">只不过,我们每年都在努力迎合这一场秀。奥斯卡没有意识,但却有阶层。能够让发行商反覆行销到让学院会员们记住,本身已经是一种特权,学院才是the zone of interest。於是才有人为《芭比》叫屈,为《奥本海默》叫好,串词说得好,这两部电影是monster hit(特指《芭比》),当Kimmel用笑话形容《芭比》的成功时,他说电影重启了这个玩具的命运,他的太太曾经根本不会想要买。这是一个残酷的事实,这一部被广大女性渴望能够发挥作用,赋予收获的电影,终极效应是提升了玩具的销量。同时,学院非常擅长控制奥斯卡舞台的大小,一旦拉开帷幕,所有人就只会去看去讨论镁光灯下的那几部戏。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; background-position: 50% center; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: cover; border-collapse: inherit; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: -apple-system, blinkmacsystemfont, "Helvetica Neue", "Segoe UI", roboto, arial, "PingFang TC", "PingFang SC", "Noto Sans TC", "Noto Sans SC", "Noto Sans CJK TC", "Noto Sans CJK SC", "Source Han Sans TW", "Source Han Sans CN", "Microsoft JhengHei", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; margin: var(--spacing-loose) 0; padding: 0px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; background-position: 50% center; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: cover; border-collapse: inherit; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: -apple-system, blinkmacsystemfont, "Helvetica Neue", "Segoe UI", roboto, arial, "PingFang TC", "PingFang SC", "Noto Sans TC", "Noto Sans SC", "Noto Sans CJK TC", "Noto Sans CJK SC", "Source Han Sans TW", "Source Han Sans CN", "Microsoft JhengHei", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; margin: var(--spacing-loose) 0; padding: 0px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span style="font-size: medium;">这像是一场巨大的障眼法,当然,什么才是好电影没有可以参考的客观可量化的标准,但是当好电影的名额只剩五部或者十部,最后只有一个单位可以胜出时,它确实就在粗暴地下定义。比如今年,奥斯卡定义的“最佳”就是调动排山倒海的资源来满足白人男性的救世主心态,《奥本海默》是普罗米修斯,同时它也是《沙丘》(并非今年入围作),只是导演重新修饰了什么叫做“贵族”,在《奥本海默》导演Nolan的规则里,掌握物理科学就是贵族的条件,最好再悲天悯人,心怀天下。电影想要打动谁,最终成功了没有,这些都是残忍的。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; background-position: 50% center; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: cover; border-collapse: inherit; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: -apple-system, blinkmacsystemfont, "Helvetica Neue", "Segoe UI", roboto, arial, "PingFang TC", "PingFang SC", "Noto Sans TC", "Noto Sans SC", "Noto Sans CJK TC", "Noto Sans CJK SC", "Source Han Sans TW", "Source Han Sans CN", "Microsoft JhengHei", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; margin: var(--spacing-loose) 0; padding: 0px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; background-position: 50% center; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: cover; border-collapse: inherit; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: -apple-system, blinkmacsystemfont, "Helvetica Neue", "Segoe UI", roboto, arial, "PingFang TC", "PingFang SC", "Noto Sans TC", "Noto Sans SC", "Noto Sans CJK TC", "Noto Sans CJK SC", "Source Han Sans TW", "Source Han Sans CN", "Microsoft JhengHei", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; margin: var(--spacing-loose) 0; padding: 0px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span style="font-size: medium;">媒体煞有介事地介绍说,这是事隔多年之后才有票房大片获得奥斯卡最佳影片奖。但这确定不是一次讽刺吗?最终市场上电影票投票的结果,和奥斯卡评审的投票结果一致,讨论度最高的影片也是唯二最大卖的影片,在这个维度上,留给我们讨论的角度非常有限。电影到底还是一种自上而下的商品呀,奥斯卡有不可反抗的框架,不可质问的规则,不容质疑的标准。比如给出了极佳表演的海外演员,以陪跑的姿态陪坐,看客们不会觉得有问题,反而都可以分析一万条理由,为什么这些海外的好演员(尤其非英语母语)不会拿奖,说完一万条再看,没有一条是跟电影和表演艺术有关的。而大家觉得这天经地义,这位演得很好没错,但是不会赢。无形之中,奥斯卡塑造了我们的价值观,且可以是完全抛离电影标准的塑形。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; background-position: 50% center; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: cover; border-collapse: inherit; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: -apple-system, blinkmacsystemfont, "Helvetica Neue", "Segoe UI", roboto, arial, "PingFang TC", "PingFang SC", "Noto Sans TC", "Noto Sans SC", "Noto Sans CJK TC", "Noto Sans CJK SC", "Source Han Sans TW", "Source Han Sans CN", "Microsoft JhengHei", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; margin: var(--spacing-loose) 0; padding: 0px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; background-position: 50% center; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: cover; border-collapse: inherit; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: -apple-system, blinkmacsystemfont, "Helvetica Neue", "Segoe UI", roboto, arial, "PingFang TC", "PingFang SC", "Noto Sans TC", "Noto Sans SC", "Noto Sans CJK TC", "Noto Sans CJK SC", "Source Han Sans TW", "Source Han Sans CN", "Microsoft JhengHei", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; margin: var(--spacing-loose) 0; padding: 0px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span style="font-size: medium;">是好电影,好的电影人就必须赢吗?或者只有赢,才值得讨论吗?在这个基础上,也难怪奥斯卡提名影片的水平一直只能在某个区间徘徊,因为稍微真的有所冒犯的电影,就上不了这个舞台,无法冒犯的艺术形式,终究将会枯萎。这整件事都像被《American Fiction》说中了,在奥斯卡这个体系里,符合这个社群“好电影”的框架才有可能突围。甚至人们对所谓“好电影”有了某种刻板印象,那些特地写出来的黑人题材小说只有迎合才可以成功,因为满足了白人庸俗的想像,而变得叫好叫座。奥斯卡同样以某些固定的公式接纳着不同投资等级的电影,今年奥斯卡的公式和电影市场的公式重合了,它点出了那个我们忽略的事实,奥斯卡才是真正的“American fiction”。某程度也说明,这个游戏更困难了。否则以奥斯卡过去的傲慢,万万不会青睐这个体量的商业作品,即便有类似的人格书写和价值确认,《奥本海默》和《芭比》这样的大片本来应该很难被大奖认可,不过电影都被AI打到门口了,蓝光都被串流帝国打到希望全无了,有这样的“格局担当”“票房担当”,学院脸上会好过一些。《可怜的东西》当仁不让是“品味担当”,我有时真的怀疑那些谈吐迷人的电影创作者在学院里到底是怎样的存在啊?他们也走错了同温层吧?</span></p><p style="background-color: white; background-position: 50% center; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: cover; border-collapse: inherit; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: -apple-system, blinkmacsystemfont, "Helvetica Neue", "Segoe UI", roboto, arial, "PingFang TC", "PingFang SC", "Noto Sans TC", "Noto Sans SC", "Noto Sans CJK TC", "Noto Sans CJK SC", "Source Han Sans TW", "Source Han Sans CN", "Microsoft JhengHei", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: var(--spacing-loose); padding: 0px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><a href="https://www.wainao.me/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: 50% center; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: cover; border-bottom: 1px solid; border-collapse: inherit; box-sizing: inherit; padding-bottom: 2px; text-decoration-line: none; transition-duration: 0.2s; transition-property: opacity; transition-timing-function: ease-in-out;" target="_blank">歪脑网站</a></p>吴一舟http://www.blogger.com/profile/04733222055917760641noreply@blogger.com0Hollywood, Los Angeles, CA, USA34.0928092 -118.32866145.7825753638211523 -153.4849114 62.403043036178843 -83.1724114tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5670268195357247439.post-81643757953938681902024-03-18T01:45:00.000-07:002024-03-18T14:19:29.966-07:00顏純鈎:以往昔的浮世繪,諷喻當今世道的不堪——王家衛《繁花》的批判現實主義<div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail-xdj266r gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(5,5,5);font-size:15px"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit">(作者臉書)</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><br></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" style="" color="#000000"> 因為王家衛,看了長篇電視劇《繁花》,可惜沒有看過金宇澄的小說原著。</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" color="#000000"> <span style="font-family:inherit"><a tabindex="-1" style="font-family:inherit"></a></span> 整部電視劇熱鬧有趣,人物形象鮮明,情節高潮迭起,鏡頭講究有韻味,這是一個通俗的故事,被王家衛用藝術手法認真包裝了,稱得上雅俗共賞。</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" color="#000000"> 這是改革開放初期上海灘的人情世故。剛剛從政治高壓下解放出來的中國人,像饑民一樣滿社會流竄,到處尋找發財機會。他們膽子大,想法多,周圍鑽營,用盡一切人際關係,踩入政治邊界,追逐到手的機會。</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" color="#000000"> 男主角阿寶是改革弄潮兒,最先覺醒的一批,有幸找到一個爺叔作生意和人生指導,得風氣之先。先從做服裝買賣開始,到做外貿﹑買賣股票,再到玩金錢遊戲等等,一度撈得風生水起,最後與金融大鱷交手,險險保住底盤,黯然退出。</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" color="#000000"> 圍繞阿寶身邊四個女人,一個初戀情人稍稍帶過,一個酒樓老闆李李,飽經風霜深藏不露,一個外貿公司辦事員汪小姐,工作拚命為人有擔當,還有一個小飯館老闆林子,冷眼觀世經營小天地。阿寶在黃河路上出入,與三個女人結下不解之緣,彼此情意深蘊,而似有似無的情愛關係終於都沒有開花結果。</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" color="#000000"> 當年渾沌初開,什麼都在變,什麼都有可能,什麼都出彩,人只要膽子大,鼻子靈,社會每個角落都有機會。大玩家玩得風生水起,小市民也能混一口飯吃,國營企業在探頭變革,民間與官方互相借力,那時的社會,真是充滿活力,充滿想像,也充滿對未來的信心。</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" color="#000000"> 據聞《繁花》曾得中宣部青睞,被安排在中央電視台作全國性播出。中宣部出於什麼用心,容忍《繁花》登堂入室,這倒令人費解。整部戲不只是對市場初開的國情民情作淋漓盡致的舖排,其中更暗含不少情節密碼,偷運批判當今現實的真貨色。中宣部官員目迷五色倒自己米,本來應該追究政治責任,但現在習近平等高層周身蟻,已經顧不上這點小事了。</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" color="#000000"> 看這部戲的觀眾,會被改革初期那種全民興奮追求幸福未來的衝動深深感染。那是一個創造奇跡的時代,人人都可以有夢想,都可以到初開的市場中去冒險,人人都相信黨和政府的政策為所有人提供了一個公平的發財機會。在法律允許的範圍內,你想做什麼﹑怎麼做,都沒有人會阻止你。</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" color="#000000"> 億萬人中爆發出來的創業激情,今日還有多少殘餘呢?看看周遭的人就明白。政府打擊私企無所不用其極,外資已經卻步,老闆在捲錢跑路,小商販被城管壓榨到跪地求饒,大學畢業生紛紛失業,年輕人時興躺平,四不主義盛行於世。</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" color="#000000"> 人心死了,市場也死了,希望死了,理想也死了。與改革初年相比,當年的生龍活虎,變成今日的死蛇爛蟮,那麼《繁花》究竟是在歌頌改革,還是在反諷今日不堪的世道?</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" color="#000000"> 當年的國家機構,比如外貿公司,幹部還一心一意在開發市場,為私企老闆提供服務,幹部奉公守法,甚至還未流行「走後門」的陋習,汪小姐在外面買一對耳環,還引起收受賄賂的大風波。如此清廉的衙門,官民共融的商業環境,今日何處尋?是市場敗壞了政府,還是政府敗壞了市場?</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" color="#000000"> 當年還在傳統人情社會的最後階段,阿寶與身邊的男人女人還保持著很多互相體貼﹑有福同享有難同當的溫情。阿寶與汪小姐在爭奪生意的要害關頭,還不忘互相擔待,為對方留一線機會。這種民間社會彌足珍貴的真性情,在今日恨不得你吃了我我吃了你的冷酷社會,已經渺不可尋。</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" color="#000000"> 社會本質的敗壞,不是市場經濟的本質造就的,是官場的腐敗傳染到社會上來,人吃人的叢林規則,腐蝕了基本人性。有心的觀眾不免會問,即使經濟好起來了,收入增加了,機會還有,但以今日的黨性與民心,還有一個理想的未來在等待中國人嗎?</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" color="#000000"> 當年的社會還有法,雖然草創,但有就是有;社會還有規矩,規矩有新有舊,但有就是有;人與人之間還有人情,雖然人情在利害面前備受考驗,但有還是有。今日法律和規矩多如牛毛,但都被專制政府用來對付人民,人情一早被貪婪的社會腐蝕殆盡,取而代之的是無恥﹑冷酷和麻木。《繁花》的懷舊,只是映襯出現實的不堪,中宣部居然連這一點都沒看出來,他們是嫌中國人對現實還不夠反感嗎?</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" style="" color="#000000"> 以王家衛的藝術包裝,將一個改革開放初期的上海灘人生百態,作一番浮世繪式的呈現,電視劇拍得熱鬧好玩,細節經營中時見王家衛的匠心。但這個劇為當今中國留下什麼啟示呢?只有一句話:中國折騰四十年,一朝回到改革前,不但回到當初,甚至社會更凶險,人心更惡濁,未來更渺茫了。</font></div></div></div> NCNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16079153443162336173noreply@blogger.com0Shanghai, China31.230416 121.4737012.9201821638211563 86.317451 59.540649836178844 156.629951tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5670268195357247439.post-89570400623091119342024-03-18T00:08:00.000-07:002024-03-18T00:08:52.896-07:00蘇小玲:在追求獨立與自由中改變——回憶李慎之先生<p> 蘇小玲</p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; color: #383838; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 19px; margin-bottom: 0.875em; margin-top: 0px;">原载無心劍 <a style="background-color: transparent; color: #0087be;">20-03-04 </a></p><div class="wp-block-image" style="background-color: white; color: #383838; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 19px; margin: 0px 0px 1em;"><figure class="aligncenter size-large" style="clear: both; display: table; margin: 0px auto;"><img class="wp-image-162" data-attachment-id="162" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-caption="" data-image-description="" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="g1583146986904" data-large-file="https://56cunpeople.files.wordpress.com/2020/03/g1583146986904.jpg?w=554" data-medium-file="https://56cunpeople.files.wordpress.com/2020/03/g1583146986904.jpg?w=300" data-orig-file="https://56cunpeople.files.wordpress.com/2020/03/g1583146986904.jpg" data-orig-size="554,402" data-permalink="https://56cunpeople.wordpress.com/g1583146986904/" height="290" sizes="(max-width: 554px) 100vw, 554px" src="https://56cunpeople.files.wordpress.com/2020/03/g1583146986904.jpg?w=554" srcset="https://56cunpeople.files.wordpress.com/2020/03/g1583146986904.jpg 554w, https://56cunpeople.files.wordpress.com/2020/03/g1583146986904.jpg?w=150 150w, https://56cunpeople.files.wordpress.com/2020/03/g1583146986904.jpg?w=300 300w" style="border-radius: 3px; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" width="400" /></figure></div><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><span style="font-size: medium;">1.</span></span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em; outline: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">思想家李慎之先生已離開我們多年了,可每當想起中國知識界的種種離奇的現象和其困境,便會自然地回憶起這位以自由主義進行精神重構,并努力超越體制、試圖推動社會整體思想進步的探索者。今天在整理書稿時,一篇當年發在外面的悼念文章讓我再次心動,并做了些删改将它編輯重發,也算再次表達自己對已故先生的深度敬意。況且,我們又正在遭遇瘟疫,某種老舊的教訓我們沒怎麽記住。 </span></p><p class="inline-ad-slot" data-adtags-visited="true" data-adtags-width="740" id="inline-ad-0" style="background-color: white; float: left; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; height: 0px; margin: 0px auto; overflow: hidden; width: 740px;"></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">先生走的那年正遇北京爆發令人驚慌的“非典”。雖然疫情造成了許多人的意外死亡,但最終依然沒有引起社會對某種制度文化應有的反思。實際上,中國的歷史社會,所遭遇的各種嚴峻問題遠比突然的一場災難更加使人不知所措,解決之道也更加充滿艱辛而令人疲憊不堪。尤其是,當一個人或極少數人企圖通過不同方式的努力,去糾正整個社會及其巨大的群體所偏離的意志與方向時,那種掙紮與痛苦的程度便可想而知。 </span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><span style="font-size: medium;">2.</span></span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">曾有個機會,參與了一次深入的、類似于社會學家的“田野調查”,也獲得了一場風雨同行的深刻體驗:中國農民與中國知識分子,正是這個社會在物質與精神兩個不同層面的“弱勢群體”。一個沒有掌握土地的自由,另一個缺乏表達思想的自由,這屬于兩個中國社會跨世紀的重大難題。也一直是我這個非主流的思考者揮之不去的一個沉重心結。誠然,民主的缺失所引發的局部抗争是難免的。在農村,出現了部分因失地等而自發的“維權人士”,盡管成效并不顯著,畢竟這是鄉村社會一種生存自衛的舉動,是改善底層命運的某種希望。 </span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">至于城市的知識界,對存在價值的自我認同,顯然會比鄉村農民更能展現知識分子對生存意義上的尋求,表達對個人生命尊嚴的維護。他們比起頭腦簡單、适應了長期堅忍生存的農民似乎也更加脆弱不堪。就比如,安徽小崗村的十幾個農民可以豁出性命、按下手印去争取土地承包,給在貧困與苦難的鄉親們找一條最後的活路。而知識分子呢,心中透亮着戊戌六君子的形象,起碼也在頭頂掠過竹林七賢的魏晉之風。但是,為了妥妥地摟住眼前所獲,維護既得的成果,他們更多學會的是隐忍,在察言觀色中自我消磨。</span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">所有的社會與時代,都有極少數的一部分人顯得與眾不同。他們致力于對現實世界各種關系的思考,以人類普世價值的眼光,不斷觀察和揭示個人歷史命運與社會現實政治之間的重要關系,從而得出自己獨特的結論、形成更深層次的命題,引發人們對相關制度與文化的廣泛關注。就中國而言,慎之先生,便是其中令人尊敬的代表性人物。數次對他直接與間接的接觸了解實在獲益巨大,讓我對體制内外的所謂“知識分子”多出一份區分,也獲得了某種必要的覺悟意識。 </span></p><p class="inline-ad-slot" data-adtags-visited="true" data-adtags-width="740" id="inline-ad-1" style="background-color: white; float: left; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; height: 0px; margin: 0px auto; overflow: hidden; width: 740px;"></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">在我的心目中,先生身上所體現出的學識與品格、思想與實踐的鮮明同一性,也可以提煉出如何判别現實中真偽知識分子的一項指标。他為我提供了一個重要文化原則的參照系,即一種真思考、真覺悟、真行動,不論在任何一個時代、任何一個社會、任何一個空間,其存在的思想都具有不可否定的進步性。深陷體制内矛盾掙脫了幾十年的先生,在晚年的意識梳理中發現幾乎走到了絕境。但是,他最終還是以自由主義給自己做了歷史性地澄清,盡管一生都沒有疏離與馬克思主義的復雜關聯。 </span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><span style="font-size: medium;">3.</span></span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">先生離世不久,就讀到《紀念李慎之》文集。這是一次非主流的社會價值觀念的集合體,代表的是自由主義的方向。人們從不同角度對先生的思想與行為做出簡潔、深刻的回憶、評價與發揮。從中看出,這些知識人的思考在同先生吻合的同時,也表露了與體制思維的巨大差異。在這些人當中有先生的知遇者和同仁,有愛戴或尊敬他的學術與人品的思想者。所有悼念的心聲都是讓人感動的。其中就有于光遠、杜潤生、茅于轼、徐友漁、朱學勤、秦晖等人。 </span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">一本書,就如一把黑夜中照明的火炬。社會不正常,一些不得不習慣在枷鎖中思考的人們,忽然能以集體的力量掙脫開來,在體制之外把一個特立獨行的思想家的觀念與其人生的精華一并鮮明展示,讓一種靈魂的光芒格外閃現,是對非凡的生命一次表達榮耀的禮贊,也是當下知識界的難能可貴的一場壯舉。盡管還能感覺到其中不能暢達的思想缺憾,但透過紀念,已彰顯了先生思想的影響,哪怕尚未超出知識界,也未能促進上層建築發生積極的變革。 </span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">作為一個具有深刻哲學洞見的知識分子,先生不斷要反思這個國家的政治與文化制度的過去與現在。對現實制度與文化的參與和探索,在贊揚“馬克思主義”科學成分、認同執政黨最初理想的同時,也大力鼓吹自由主義,宣揚完整的民主憲政與市場經濟的重要性、批判政治與文化上的專制主義——這對從延安“出爐”的他又談何容易?也許,先生只能讓自己先成為一個人道主義者,來觀察一個國家的政治文明生态,才能擺脫歷史思維的糾結? </span></p><p class="inline-ad-slot" data-adtags-visited="true" data-adtags-width="740" id="inline-ad-2" style="background-color: white; float: left; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; height: 0px; margin: 0px auto; overflow: hidden; width: 740px;"></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><span style="font-size: medium;">4.</span></span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">先生生前為知名學者,鄧小平的國際問題顧問,中國社會科學院的原副院長。但并不因其思想深刻、學術公正、社會威望而得以分享一個“現代公民”的基本權利——言論與出版的憲法自由。除極少數知識分子外,想必絕大多數中國人都并不了解他。這似乎也不算什麽奇怪。翻閱一下現當代史,人們很難看到活着的和死去的思想家有多少占據主流的尊貴地位。我們的民族,幾乎更擅長對權力意志的領悟和焠鍛,而不太善于繼承或催生某種真正偉大的思想。 </span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">即便是清末,那位以大翻譯大思想欲以現代文明改變沉疴中國的大學者、中國的自由主義鼻祖嚴復先生,包括新文化運動時期的胡适先生,也都沒有獲得多少應有的社會尊榮,而只成為少數歷史研究者熱議的對象。或許有個大例外,這就是魯迅。作為思想家,他能夠實現一個人的跨時代“吃香”,并成為政治需要的文化符號,也是一種歷史的陰差陽錯。然而,再牛的魯迅,是不可以再做一個活人進入他未知的世界。 </span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">想當初,政府的确也寬宏大量,思想家可以繼續借助文學,對中國人人性的醜陋、文化的龌龊加以冷嘲熱諷或大放厥詞,甚至批判與攻擊堂堂的總理大臣也安然無恙!這份珍貴,對于歷史自然十分稀罕。至于到了所謂新社會,死去的魯迅則是一種被擰巴地出爐。作為中共以往的事業同情與支持者,思想家成了“工具理性”,拿來印證現實所以進步的重要文化注腳。立場決定了他的“民族脊梁”的象征存在,以過去式的形态繼續“得天獨厚”下來。 </span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">現在的魯迅只屬于文學家活在中國的民間。人們也看到文學或電影中阿Q的傻,而非阿Q的悲。魯迅曾經的思想不過是一塊“半殖民地”裏的愛國硬骨頭,也有豐富的民族主義血肉。當然,對于復雜的魯迅,人們可以見仁見智,各種批評的說法也不乏其人。但我卻記住了他在否定傳統以外的一種特别的肯定:自古以來,我們就有為民請命的人,有舍身求法的人——這是民族的脊梁。而魯迅自身毫無疑問是其中一根粗壯的脊梁。 </span></p><p class="inline-ad-slot" data-adtags-visited="true" data-adtags-width="740" id="inline-ad-3" style="background-color: white; float: left; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; height: 0px; margin: 0px auto; overflow: hidden; width: 740px;"></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><span style="font-size: medium;">5.</span></span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">而李慎之先生,當然也是一根當代社會的民族脊梁。作為知識界、也是體制内少有的歷史文化與現實政治的反思精英,先生的思想存在對社會進步的真正意味,卻并非活動在文化層面上的人們都能體會。這不是說先生神秘難以靠近和解讀,當然不是。要真正理解也非難事,那就是将公民的社會權利與歷史的發展進程連在一起,将深刻的人道主義精神與人類最基本的生存現實連在一起,将他李慎之和我們時代的生活、人的價值與尊嚴連在一起。 </span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">就是說,要了解一個真實的思想家,這需要完成一種思想同現實的鏈接。而真正能完成這種鏈接、并能形成借力再創造的,大概屬于那些具備完整的現代常識的知識分子。依靠理性與邏輯的力量,就不可能不理解這個開放與探索時代所需要的李慎之。人們不時要議論:當代中國有無思想家,或者說有無一個真正的思想界?這問題聽起來似乎讓人感到有所驚駭聽聞或有故弄玄虛之嫌。從實而論,寥寥無幾,幾近可悲! </span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">實際上,别說偌大的中國與悠久的文明積蓄,就是将當下那些專門拿着國家俸祿,以研究學問或教學為業的學者們集中起來,也足以站成一片森林了,何以構不成一個完整的、蔚為大觀的思想界?但事實卻是,人們從未看到一種思維自由的、擺脫了權力政治糾纏的思想界,哪怕只是一個公開而獨立的“思想沙龍”;也沒感受到任何一個思想群體的重拳連擊,不斷推動時代向前的一種自由強大的精神意志力的存在! </span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">在我們少有思想家的大環境中,存在着一個注意力難以集中、形體顯得支離破碎、精神渙散無力的“思想界”。換句話說,就是在當今的中國社會裏,思想界的成長狀态是真正的獨木不成林!也許是這一人文社會的地理、氣候原因,或者就是我們精神上被異化的民族在主觀上并不需要一個什麽思想界。學者們的話語權還是當政者有限的施舍,而非一種憲法精神下的神聖賦予。思想、言論的寬松自由,依然還是可望而不可及的理想而非現實,整個社會的聲調還依然是壓抑大量異同的一種“大和諧”——面對21世紀人類的如此之怪現象,我們的知識分子們也許不可能不顯得“牢騷滿腹”,并且還擅長“引而不發”! </span></p><p class="inline-ad-slot" data-adtags-visited="true" data-adtags-width="740" id="inline-ad-4" style="background-color: white; float: left; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; height: 0px; margin: 0px auto; overflow: hidden; width: 740px;"></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><span style="font-size: medium;">6.</span></span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">但是,這樣的局限令人無能為力。由于沒一個可以依賴的獨立的思想界,也沒多少可以承載不同思想的自由媒體,我們有許多富有思想創見與精神發現的個體,就只好選擇了隐晦表達或幹脆沉默。或許也深谙“槍打出頭鳥”的道理,更多知識界、文化界、學術界乃至文學藝術界的人士,寧願隐忍現實與有負歷史,也不願将自己擺放到“槍口”之上。如此的環境與相互間的示範作用,人們個個有望成為所謂“驚弓之鳥”,而非手握思想的利器,進行大膽理性地問題揭示與社會批判。 </span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">和許多仰慕先生學問與人品的人們一樣,我是通過拜讀先生那些見地深刻、凜然大義之雄文,如《獨立之精神 自由之思想——論作為思想家的陳寅恪》、《風雨蒼黃五十年》等等,才知道中國的知識界居然還存在一把不老的思想寶刀,還有如此無私無畏的博學之士。當你去細細品嘗那一篇篇用良心造就出的文章時,便能從中感受到什麽叫振聾發聩,什麽是思想真實的力量!這種特别的力量,在我以往認識的學者身上很少遇見,盡管他們之中不乏著名或标杆式的學術人物。這是一種久違了的良知震撼,每一回的遇見、每一次的翻閱,也總有深深地抓住它們營養自己的願望,正如身陷一片茫茫沙漠中的綠洲尋求者。 </span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">2000年初夏,在歷史學家、上海大學教授朱學勤先生介紹下,我和友人、學者唐繼無一道,在中科院宿舍拜訪了李慎之老先生。待彼此坐定後,他聽我們再做一次自我介紹和來訪的目的後,便開始談起自己對“公民教育”問題的看法。先生思路一打開便是一番天南地北,話題從眼前追溯到過去,從北京現狀到延安時期,從莫斯科到西柏坡;從1848年的法國大革命到1949的中國紅色革命,從伏爾泰們的啟蒙主義運動到梁啟超們的君主立憲理想,從艾思奇的大眾哲學到前蘇共日丹諾夫的哲學報告;再從當代中國的新儒家和自由主義之争到德國的哈貝馬斯等西方新的哲學探索……盡管話題繁雜、涉及廣闊,但先生的思辮十分嚴謹,圍繞着“現代公民”這一主題,對我們進行了一次歷史、政治、文化上的邏輯梳理。</span></p><p class="inline-ad-slot" data-adtags-visited="true" data-adtags-width="740" id="inline-ad-5" style="background-color: white; float: left; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; height: 0px; margin: 0px auto; overflow: hidden; width: 740px;"></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">先生認為:中國要成為一個真正的公民社會,其前提是必須建立起真正的民主政治制度。否則,要實現現代意義上的公民社會及民主自由就是一句空話。因此,未來還有一節很長的路要走。三十年,五十年或是更遠。法國啟蒙主義思想家盧梭說過一句話:“只有當我成為一個社會公民的時候,知道自己才是一個真正的人。”的确,由于我們太過缺少一種如同先生所大力倡導的“現代公民教育”,對于今天的中國人而言,絕大多數欠缺或幾乎沒有“公民”的常識,恰恰習慣于“人民”這種泛政治化稱謂,而無法明确自己身份的一種憲法定位。“老百姓”才是被上下熱衷使用的、凸顯傳統等級與愚民色彩的普遍稱呼。 </span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">甚至,今天的外部世界、外國人,都并不十分了解和理解我們這個民族和社會有何種深刻的願望或危機。她并非僅僅需要物質意義上的全球化、GDP快速增長的經濟數據和意識形态領域的滿滿自信,再聽到中國人能對外國人吼上幾個“不”字,而是需要從根本上轉變傳統的文明觀念與現實文化、政治、社會的結構。簡單地說,中國更需要的是一種類似美國與日本國家與民族那樣的創造力、凝聚力與自信力。而這一切都需要得益于國家經濟在有序發展的同時,其政治制度得到變革、各種社會優質力量正常均衡地發展,包括進一步确立法治的權威、淡化過盛的政權意識,積極而全面復興現代教育與文化科學等等。 </span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><span style="font-size: medium;">7.</span></span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">先生找出一本有他參與、由經濟學家于光遠主編的《太平洋學報》送給我。說這份雜志的頁碼不多,但它刊發的文章卻都是頗有分量的!我看到上面有一篇用先生的筆名“李中”刊發的文章,是針對中國專制主義傳統進行剖析與批判的。他說已有很長時間不在國内的報刊上發東西了,許多文章也只能放到海外去登。他還說我們的意識形态領域太僵化陳舊,其實也沒有必要對不同的新思想太過敏感,“百家争鳴是好事、是幸事”,“做到全天下只剩一種聲音那是很可怕、也是很糟糕的事情!” </span></p><p class="inline-ad-slot" data-adtags-visited="true" data-adtags-width="740" id="inline-ad-6" style="background-color: white; float: left; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; height: 0px; margin: 0px auto; overflow: hidden; width: 740px;"></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">聽先生表述問題看法的确是種享受。他能讓你進入到一個十分舒暢的精神氣場裏,其間不斷地感受到一種罕見的思想躍動與鮮活生命。他所展開的思維羽翼,扇動的是同這個民族與人類命運密切相關的大政治與大文化,而決非某些淺嘗辄止的理論家們對現代文明所做的平庸曲解、對權力文化所施的主義意淫。實際上,中國數次的思想解放,并未形成一種自上而下的社會進步運動,缺乏足夠的“革命性”分量。許多開放的讨論,内容不涉及根本,形式也拘泥于圈子領域。 </span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">對現代歷史的回顧可以發現,中國改革缺少真正的社會性與公眾性,即便是1980年代開啟的思想啟蒙準運動最終也是半途而廢。這些問題,先生自然會有答案。第二次拜會,持續了兩個半鐘頭。而且我感覺得出來,雖然夠不成一個水平面上的對話交流,但感覺彼此始終都是愉快的。如不算打攪先生,對我這晚輩來說實在是種莫大寬慰!我之前準備的幾個問題,如中國知識分子問題、西方新馬問題、前蘇聯理論家布哈林評價問題等等,都得到了先生的一一解答和指教!那些關于自由主義要義、人類現代性的歷史解讀,關于包含犬儒主義、工具理性的現實批判,正是許許多多中國人,特别是青年知識分子和政府公務員需要深刻感受的信息。 </span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><span style="font-size: medium;">8.</span></span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">我曾帶上自己一本出版不久的新書送給先生。他接過後換了副眼鏡看目錄,又翻到扉頁看了看我給他的贈言。随後便說:“你還寫散文呀?以前我也喜歡文學藝術,後來看得少了,沒時間。不過真正寫作也不容易,不小心也會寫出問題來。我自己也是這樣又寫又說成右派的,你可要當心喲!”說罷自己便仰頭大笑。先生智慧,且風趣幽默!人們知道,他曾當過二十年的“右派”,付出了極高的人生代價!在“摘帽”平反後,他依然堅持講真話,不迷信某種思想,置疑現實權威。而且,批判比以往更加尖銳! </span></p><p class="inline-ad-slot" data-adtags-visited="true" data-adtags-width="740" id="inline-ad-7" style="background-color: white; float: left; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; height: 0px; margin: 0px auto; overflow: hidden; width: 740px;"></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">先生回顧說:“以前的胡風案,‘三家村’的鄧拓、吳晗他們,都是作‘錯’了文章而受罪的。對了,還有一個遼寧的張志新。不過,現在好多了,共產黨進步了。我還在努力寫文章,批評某些人的觀點和做法,雖然像我這樣的老頭說的話人家也實在不愛聽!”先生頓了頓後接着說:“我雖然說得上是個自由主義者,但也還算是很堅定的馬克思主義者嘛。搞學術最怕的就是不講道理,不實事求是……”先生這樣說。我自然相信,先生對于馬克思主義的曾經信仰或發生懷疑都是真實的。而他經歷了一個十分痛苦的思想過程! </span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">在先生為《顧準文集》作的序言中讀到過這樣的評價:“《顧準文集》,它使人們在人家問起二十世紀下半期中國有沒有獨立的、創造性的思想家的時候,我們可以沒有愧色地回答:‘我們有顧準’。” 而對于陳寅恪的評價,則是特别強調與闡釋了陳氏自身倡導的“獨立之精神,自由之思想”。我們也從中看出了先生對知識分子品格、氣節的審美意志。他的那句“不在刺刀下做官”,道出的是一種剛正的政治人格,實在令人振聾發聩! </span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">圈内人都明白,為了使理論學術及知識分子走向更加正常與純粹,先生與多方發生過矛盾與沖突。當他談起學術界裏的某些人拿着雞毛當令箭、将學術引向歧途時,從他的表情可以看出思想探索被誤導的氣憤。他同時也認為,一九五六、五七年是中國知識界最好的年份,因為,那時候大家都能抱着一顆赤誠之心,對黨和人民說出自己的心裏話。如今,敢講真話的知識分子很少了,似乎文化人都已學乖巧了。 </span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><span style="font-size: medium;">9.</span></span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">慎之先生還這樣抱怨說:現在有些知識分子連一般官僚政客都不如!我可以體味到先生的憂心與痛心,因為自己也親眼目睹許多有知識的中國人在抛棄必要的社會信仰與責任,在不自覺地參與了對民族精神世界的漸進損毀!先生無疑是中國知識界“敢為天下先”的楷模。作為一個有着深刻定見的學者,他的著述并不算多,但是每一次文章的問世總是觀點鮮明、主張飽滿、态度客觀、邏輯嚴謹,所闡述的問題也總是大是大非、發人深省而啟迪深遠。 </span></p><p class="inline-ad-slot" data-adtags-visited="true" data-adtags-width="740" id="inline-ad-8" style="background-color: white; float: left; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; height: 0px; margin: 0px auto; overflow: hidden; width: 740px;"></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">不論是對國内問題的剖析還是對國際問題的評論,讀者都能從中得到一種深刻的啟蒙教益,這也是對時下流行的立場暧昧與精神媚俗的抵制。一種知識分子的風骨良知躍然其間。先生這樣對我們說:“你們這一代知識分子有一種使命值得去努力,那就是為促進中國民主政治的實現,去做‘現代公民’的啟蒙工作。”先生說這話時,那種神态和語氣略有沉重之感,其意味深長我是能夠體會到的。 </span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">盡管尚未談及中國的自由主義問題,但我知道先生在這方面所下的工夫。我對政治學與哲學并無什麽專門研究,可還是了解西方自由主義對整個人類社會所做出的特殊貢獻。因此也能夠理解:在中國人的民族文化、社會信仰與價值觀念嚴重缺失的今天,自由主義乃不失為一劑良方。就如同與其相生相伴的市場經濟一樣,它可以給中國人的生存提供相對可靠的過渡形态。其所具有的普世意義,已被人類社會證明是不可廢棄的歷史經驗。 </span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">以理性的态度重申或重釋自由主義的現實價值,同我們重新在哲學角度上解讀馬克思主義的當代意義是一樣的道理。我們需要綜合人類任何過去的、合理的,有益于中國社會、民眾與正常國家利益的主義與思想。而馬克思主義也好、自由主義也好,包括西方的新馬克思主義和中國的所謂“現代新儒學”也好,都是可供利用的思想資源。通過對其真偽辯認、理性整合,或許就可能最大程度地避免各種不足與局限,來盡可能為社會進步提供解決問題的科學方法。 </span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><span style="font-size: medium;">10.</span></span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">我以為,要想實現國家強盛、社會公正、人民富裕,靠回歸傳統是難以奏效的。而對于當下的中國,可資利用的新舊思想與文化資源,無論如何都算不上富足,或總被打過嚴重的折扣!傳統的儒學,已被政治的欲望打磨得只剩下權力與物欲的幽光;馬克思主義,也似乎再次成為亞洲上空的幽靈;至于自由主義,經歷了百余年中國的歷程,其思想話語已經融入我們的經濟與文化生活,并無形消解着消極的社會意識。雖然如此,大多數中國人,也包括不少文化人在内,實際上都并不了解什麽是現代自由主義的真實含義。 </span></p><p class="inline-ad-slot" data-adtags-visited="true" data-adtags-width="740" id="inline-ad-9" style="background-color: white; float: left; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; height: 0px; margin: 0px auto; overflow: hidden; width: 740px;"></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">因為種種原因,更多時候被憂郁地困守在一個很小的專業圈或學術範圍裏,因而不能充分與社會大眾一道來分享自由的思想。其常識的重要性也只被極少數人認知到位。我們無從考證:那些知識界的沉默的大多數,是否也一樣需要一種無形的精神生命的質量指數;或需要在實踐層面上,證明自己無愧于做一個人類良知的發現者?我們需要自由主義這樣的思想,來對社會文化進行新的奠基。故此,也希望有像李慎之先生這樣有力量的學者、知識分子,來推動一種學術與理論風向的改變。 </span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">記得某日,我突然接到慎之先生的一個電話。原來他看了我書中的一篇關于評論一位歷史學家的文章。其中在闡述中國傳統文化的現實危害時,用了“封建主義”這一概念。先生認為這是一個重要的學術問題,也是歷史觀問題。準确無誤的應該是“專制主義”,這樣就不會產生理論上的混淆。他甚至追究到馬克思的《共產黨宣言》中的“封建主義”,以其原本含意來說明目前學術界存在的普遍疏忽!再後來,我又接到先生一封信,那是搬家信息與新的聯絡電話。看來,先生還是記住了我這個幼稚但還算真誠的後生! </span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">幾天後我也給先生電話,告訴他自己寫作中正遇上一個哲學史的問題需要讨教。先生回答說:“是嗎?那挺好!不過,我接下去很長一段時間将會比較忙的,我們能不能約在秋天?”這當然令我期待。我說“太好了,到時我再去看您!”但萬萬沒料到,沒能等到秋天來臨,2003年“非典”肆虐北京城。而在此4月間,李慎之先生卻也因病醫治無效,最終與世長辭。我之前曾委托書法家朋友為他準備好的一幅“獨立之精神,自由之思想”的立軸,也沒能送到先生的面前,表達一種敬仰。 </span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">2005.9定稿、發表</span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">2020.3.3删改重發</span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em; text-align: right;"><span style="font-size: medium;">——网友推荐</span></p>吴一舟http://www.blogger.com/profile/04733222055917760641noreply@blogger.com0Beijing, China39.904211 116.40739511.593977163821151 81.251145 68.214444836178842 151.563645tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5670268195357247439.post-75876195672904444082024-03-17T23:21:00.000-07:002024-03-17T23:21:03.279-07:00何瑞恩:美國有跨黨派共識嗎?<div style="text-align: left;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #111111; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", 微軟正黑體; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 35px; margin: 0px 0px 30px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">◎何瑞恩(Ryan Hass) <br /></strong><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", 微軟正黑體; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 35px; margin: 0px 0px 30px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="color: #666666;">自由時報-星期専論</span><span style="color: #999999;"> 20240317</span></strong></div><p><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #111111; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", 微軟正黑體; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 35px; margin: 0px 0px 30px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #111111; font-family: 微軟正黑體, 新細明體, sans-serif, Arial; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 35px; margin: 0px 0px 30px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">美國聯邦眾議員蓋拉格(威斯康辛州共和黨籍)和克利胥納莫提(伊利諾州民主黨籍),二月下旬率領一個跨黨派代表團訪問台灣。在與台灣各界領袖的多場會晤中,這支美國代表團從不錯過任何機會,強調他們在台灣和中國相關議題上,展現跨黨派共識的力量。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #111111; font-family: 微軟正黑體, 新細明體, sans-serif, Arial; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 35px; margin: 0px 0px 30px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">蓋拉格和克利胥納莫提是眾議院中國共產黨特別委員會的領袖。他們在執掌該委員會時做出的指示,是希望在對於各類議題嚴重分歧的華盛頓,中國議題可以做為跨黨派合作的最後堡壘。他們在極大程度上遵守了自己的承諾。可是,他們在兌現承諾的過程中,採取的行動宛如在暴風中點燃一根蠟燭。這是一項了不起的壯舉,但確實發揮作用了嗎?</p><h4 style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #111111; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", 微軟正黑體; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 35px; margin: 0px 0px 30px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">美國總統大選 成為幾近平手僵局</h4><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #111111; font-family: 微軟正黑體, 新細明體, sans-serif, Arial; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 35px; margin: 0px 0px 30px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">這個特別委員會已經提出一長串的跨黨派建議,但其中大部分都不了了之。原因很簡單,這個特別委員會從未被賦予立法的權力。立法的職責仍由國會的常設委員會負責。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #111111; font-family: 微軟正黑體, 新細明體, sans-serif, Arial; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 35px; margin: 0px 0px 30px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">在國會對於中國議題的論辯之外,美國內部嚴重撕裂。總統選戰成為幾近平手的僵局。未來幾個月將是一場動員負面情緒的腥風血雨。兩位總統候選人都會試圖恐嚇他們的支持者,讓他們相信除非自己當選,否則美利堅合眾國將會陷於危殆。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #111111; font-family: 微軟正黑體, 新細明體, sans-serif, Arial; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 35px; margin: 0px 0px 30px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">在這些存在主義爭論的背後,民主、共和兩黨之間,正在浮現更深刻的哲學斷層。拜登總統認為,美國是世界上的為善正能量,他試圖召喚美國的良知良能,為那些受到攻擊的人挺身而出,反擊侵略者,在烏克蘭尤其如此。拜登本質上是一個國際主義者。他將美國在世界各地的盟友和夥伴,視為力量乘數(force multipliers)和重要資產,而不是負債。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #111111; font-family: 微軟正黑體, 新細明體, sans-serif, Arial; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 35px; margin: 0px 0px 30px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">前總統川普則企圖復歸一個不同的時代。正如《紐約時報》政治評論家布魯克斯(David Brooks)所言,川普已經讓共和黨重返一九三○年代的孤立主義窠臼。川普及其支持者提出一種「美國浩劫」(American carnage)的想像,認為這個國家支離破碎、道德淪喪,無法領導世界。他們開出的處方是「美國優先」(America first)。換句話說,他們認為美國應該將有限的資源,集中在解決自己的問題上,讓其他國家去面對自己的挑戰。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #111111; font-family: 微軟正黑體, 新細明體, sans-serif, Arial; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 35px; margin: 0px 0px 30px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">二○二三年,大多數共和黨人首次表示,美國應該置身於國際事務之外,而不是積極參與。這種情緒正在影響共和黨領袖對烏克蘭的態度。共和黨反對支持烏克蘭,並不表示他們熱中於支持台灣。相反地,這是一種信念的延伸,即美國應該專注於處理自身事務。</p><h4 style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #111111; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", 微軟正黑體; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 35px; margin: 0px 0px 30px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">如何強化對台支持 存在尖銳分歧</h4><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #111111; font-family: 微軟正黑體, 新細明體, sans-serif, Arial; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 35px; margin: 0px 0px 30px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">美國外交政策的辯論,也延伸到中國和台灣議題。在國會跨黨派團結的表象背後,對於美國應該如何應對中國的挑戰,以及是否或如何強化對台灣的支持,存在著尖銳的分歧。川普自己在擔任總統時,還曾經質疑過美國是否應該保衛台灣。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #111111; font-family: 微軟正黑體, 新細明體, sans-serif, Arial; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 35px; margin: 0px 0px 30px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">在接下來的幾個月裡,川普會主張,美國需要將對中國課徵的關稅提高到六十%。在戰術層面上,川普將藉由這種策略圍剿拜登,並將拜登的形象塑造成在對抗中國時表現軟弱和膽怯。即使川普對六十%的關稅缺乏信念,但他的顧問,例如前美國貿易代表萊特海澤(Robert Lighthizer),相信這些關稅有助於抑制美中貿易失衡。他們認為,這類計畫會加速美國和中國經濟「脫鉤」(decoupling),並在此過程中削弱中國的工業產能。他們的目標是讓製造業和就業機會重新回流到美國。他們受到民族主義和本土主義精神的引導。他們優先考慮的並不是古典經濟學家大衛.李嘉圖(David Ricardo)的比較優勢理論,推動價值鏈回流對台灣產生的任何間接影響,也不是他們的主要關切所在。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #111111; font-family: 微軟正黑體, 新細明體, sans-serif, Arial; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 35px; margin: 0px 0px 30px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">即使如此,現代國際體系的結構,仍是由美國的積極領導維繫而成的。如果美國被自身陷入衰落的恐懼所吞噬,並且向內退縮,權力真空就會出現。一旦出現這種真空,復仇主義和修正主義大國將窮盡一切力量,尋求填補這些真空。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #111111; font-family: 微軟正黑體, 新細明體, sans-serif, Arial; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 35px; margin: 0px 0px 30px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">需要闡明的是,我的主要論點並不是促進對於美國二○二四年大選的任何黨派偏好。恰恰相反,我的目的是要戳破美國兩大政黨在台灣和中國議題上存在平靜和諧的幻想。這種水乳交融是不存在的。</p><h4 style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #111111; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", 微軟正黑體; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 35px; margin: 0px 0px 30px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">交好美政壇新秀 對台至關重要</h4><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #111111; font-family: 微軟正黑體, 新細明體, sans-serif, Arial; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 35px; margin: 0px 0px 30px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">面對這種不確定性,台灣的領導者積極爭取與美國兩黨領袖建立關係是明智的,反之亦然。對台灣領導者來說,與美國下一代領導者建立關係也很重要。無論是拜登還是川普在二○二四年贏得大選,他們都將在二○二八年受到任期的限制。正如當年名不見經傳的阿肯色州年輕州長比爾.柯林頓(Bill Clinton),台灣應該與美國正在崛起的政壇新秀建立關係,他們將推動這種關係向前發展。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #111111; font-family: 微軟正黑體, 新細明體, sans-serif, Arial; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 35px; margin: 0px 0px 30px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">與此同時,台灣將睿智地在力所能及的範圍內,控管兩岸關係擦槍走火的可能性。台北無法控制北京擴大對台施壓的決策,但它可以剝奪北京執意咄咄逼人的正當性。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #111111; font-family: 微軟正黑體, 新細明體, sans-serif, Arial; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 35px; margin: 0px 0px 30px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">最後,即將就任的賴清德政府,將承接持續與世界其他主要大國建立關係的機遇。台灣愈是能夠與其他重要國家建立密切關係,就愈不容易受到北京的孤立和恫嚇。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #111111; font-family: 微軟正黑體, 新細明體, sans-serif, Arial; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 35px; margin: 0px 0px 30px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">對台灣來說,好消息是它在美國享有廣泛而深厚的跨黨派支持。在川普總統和拜登總統任內,美台關係都有所成長。美國的政治發展並不是導向宿命論的理由。然而,這些政局演變應該足以讓台北對美國政治辯論的不穩定性,進行清晰思考,即使來訪的國會議員持續鼓吹美國在中國和台灣議題上達成跨黨派共識這類令人寬慰的故事。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #111111; font-family: 微軟正黑體, 新細明體, sans-serif, Arial; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 35px; margin: 0px 0px 30px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">(作者何瑞恩/<span style="color: #666666; font-size: 17px;">Ryan Hass</span>為美國智庫布魯金斯研究所資深研究員、中國中心主任、辜振甫暨辜嚴倬雲台灣研究講座;國際新聞中心陳泓達譯)</p>吴一舟http://www.blogger.com/profile/04733222055917760641noreply@blogger.com0Taiwan23.69781 120.960515-4.612423836178845 85.804265 52.008043836178842 156.116765tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5670268195357247439.post-2404622617935758192024-03-17T01:47:00.000-07:002024-03-17T01:47:52.569-07:00謝錦芳:伯恩斯談美中競爭的戰鬥核心(附:我們不想生活在一個由中國人主導的世界)<p> 謝錦芳 / 風傳媒 20240317</p><p><br /></p><p aid="61" class="first_p" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 15px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.05em; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">美國眾議院13日通過「TikTok剝離法案」,要求TikTok中國大陸母公司字節跳動必須在半年內拆分TikTok,否則將面臨美國禁令。中國官方強烈抗議,強調將採取必要措施,堅決維護自身合法權益。然而,美國駐中國大使伯恩斯(Nicholas Burns)則表示,「美國科技軟體包括Google、Facebook、Instagram一直被禁止在中國境內發展,而中國14億人口也無法使用TikTok,這不是很諷刺嗎?」</span></p><div class="article_ads_p_wrapper" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 7.5px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><p aid="62" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">美國駐中國大使伯恩斯14日應美國智庫東西中心(East-West Center)邀請以視訊演講,談美中關係的挑戰。他指出,未來10年,中國一直會是美國外交政策的重點,中國是美國系統性的競爭對手。美中競爭的戰鬥核心就是科技,科技發展不論是人工智慧、機器學習、量子科技、生化科技等,不僅改善全球經濟與人類的生活,很多新科技可用於發展軍事科技,將定義未來的權力平衡。</p></div><div class="dnd-atom-wrapper type-image context-smg_800x533_wm atom-align-center" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; display: table; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px auto; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><div class="dnd-drop-wrapper" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><img alt="美國駐中國大使伯恩斯(Nicholas Burns)。(謝錦芳攝)" height="417" src="https://image.cache.storm.mg/styles/smg-800x533-fp-wm/s3/media/image/2024/03/17/20240317-120544_U19368_M939984_530c.jpg?XWVwYOYJMKmSO96pFwQ4XShahtn_daf5&itok=0DQgNQTF" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: auto; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: middle; width: 700px; word-break: break-word;" title="美國駐中國大使伯恩斯(Nicholas Burns)。(謝錦芳攝)" typeof="foaf:Image" width="625" /></div><div class="dnd-legend-wrapper" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; caption-side: bottom; display: table-caption; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><div class="meta" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #999999; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 10px 0px 20px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">美國駐中國大使伯恩斯(Nicholas Burns)。(謝錦芳攝)</div></div></div><h2 class="subtitle2" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #ff3838; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 22px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: 500; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.4em; margin: 20px 0px 10px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 40px 0px 15px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">美國對中國去風險化 伯恩斯:中國早就這樣做</h2><p aid="63" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 15px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">伯恩斯指出,「這就是為何美國管制尖端科技、用於AI的先進半導體產品輸出到中國,主要目的是確保這些尖端科技不會落入中國人民解放軍手上。美國政府也禁止美國企業投資專研AI領域的中國企業。我們把這些政策稱為去風險化政策(de-risking),然而,中國早就對美國去風險化。」</p><p aid="64" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 15px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">伯恩斯表示,如果中國企業在美國投資領域屬於敏感項目,與美國國家安全有關,必須經過美國政府審核。拜登政府明確表示,不支持那些可能幫助中國發展情報與軍事的美國科技出口到中國。反過來看,我們對於可能對國家安全產生負面衝擊的投資案,必須仔細地檢驗。</p><div class="article_ads_p_wrapper" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 7.5px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><p aid="65" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">伯恩斯指出,「我們必須從新冠疫情學到教訓,改變我們所需關鍵原料、礦物的供應鏈,讓這些供應鏈靠近美國本土或是可信賴的盟友。」</p></div><p aid="66" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 15px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">對於中國官方一直抱怨美國的去風險化政策,伯恩斯表示,「中國政府早就採取相同的政策。他們禁止攸關國家安全的核心科技出口美國,而中國採取去風險化政策的時間比美國來得早。」</p><p aid="67" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 15px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">近期美國眾議院通過「TikTok剝離法案」,中國官方提出強烈抗議。伯恩斯指出,「美國許多科技軟體如Google、Facebook、Instagram都不能在中國境內發展,中國也禁止14億人使用TikTok,而中國政府一直批評美國對TikTok進行的辯論,這不是很諷刺嗎?」</p><div class="dnd-atom-wrapper type-image context-smg_800xauto_er" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; display: table; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><div class="dnd-drop-wrapper" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><img alt="美國加州的TikTok辦公室。(美聯社)" height="390" src="https://image.cache.storm.mg/styles/smg-800xauto-er/s3/media/image/2024/03/14/20240314-062519_U1085_M939271_1404.jpg?T_unsj1r4V6W8WwX0pw5oIiRtf63WOrB&itok=FNy6Z3K3" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: auto; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: middle; width: 700px; word-break: break-word;" title="美國加州的TikTok辦公室。(美聯社)" typeof="foaf:Image" width="587" /></div><div class="dnd-legend-wrapper" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; caption-side: bottom; display: table-caption; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><div class="meta" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #999999; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 10px 0px 20px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">美國加州的TikTok辦公室。(美聯社)</div></div></div><div class="article_ads_p_wrapper" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 7.5px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><p aid="68" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.05em; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">對於美中在經濟實力上的競爭,伯恩斯指出,「過去十年許多人預測,中國的經濟規模將超越美國。事實上,美中的經濟實力差距一直在擴大中,美國依然是全球經濟龍頭,現在許多經濟學家認為,中國經濟規模要超越美國恐怕更難了。」</span></p></div><p aid="69" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 15px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">他指出,過去40年來,中國的經濟成長的確創造了紀錄,不過,現在中國經濟成長速度趨緩,不少經濟學者預期中國今明兩年的GDP成長率可能只有2~3%。中國面臨一些結構性問題,包括國內消費力不足、房地產泡沫危機、老化與超低生育率等,這些因素顯示中國經濟進入了另一個階段。相較之下,美國經濟表現相當好,在科技發展上,從生物科技、AI到量子科技等,美國一直處於領先。</p><h2 class="subtitle2" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #ff3838; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 22px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: 500; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.4em; margin: 20px 0px 10px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 40px 0px 15px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">美國關注 中國產能過剩導致低價傾銷議題</h2><p aid="70" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 15px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">然而,中國經濟成長趨緩對美國與世界帶來什麼新挑戰?伯恩斯回答提問時指出,「中國兩會剛結束,因應經濟成長趨緩,中國政府將大幅提升製造力,以創造更多就業機會。如果中國真得大幅提升製造產能,製造更多太陽能板、電動車,那麼令人擔心的是,未來可能導致產能過剩。」</p><p aid="71" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 15px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">「美國政府非常關注這項政策的後果。」他指出,「如果中國把這些產品以低價傾銷到各國,那將打亂全球貿易體系。」他認為,這項政策相當不智,未來如果中國低價產品傾銷到各國,將引發其他國家的反彈,以歐盟為例,正在對中國輸出歐盟的電動車進行調查。</p><p aid="72" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 15px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">伯恩斯表示,「中國的企業接受地方政府、中央政府的各種補貼,可以較低的價格銷售,造成不公平貿易,這將是今年很重要的議題。」</p><p aid="73" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 15px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">美中在高度競爭之際,更重要的是負責地處理雙方的歧見,避免衝突。伯恩斯強調,美中高度競爭,這必須是和平競爭,同時要避免衝突。雙方在氣候變遷、公共健康、食品安全等議題上可以合作,共同解決人類面臨的問題。</p><p aid="73" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 15px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">附:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/yOQC-lQtVe0" width="320" youtube-src-id="yOQC-lQtVe0"></iframe></div><p aid="73" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 15px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><br /></p><h1 id="article_title" style="background-color: whitesmoke; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 30px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: 500; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.3; margin: 0px 0px 20px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">美國駐華大使伯恩斯:我們不想生活在一個由中國人主導的世界</h1><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><p aid="61" class="first_p" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 15px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><span style="font-size: medium;">美國哥倫比亞廣播公司(CBS)新聞節目「60分鐘」(60 Minutes Overtime)近期曾前往北京採訪美國駐華大使伯恩斯(Nicholas Burns)。伯恩斯在採訪中表示,擁有龐大消費群體的中國在過去幾十年間一直對美國企業充滿吸引力,但是現如今在中國做生意已經變得令人擔憂且充滿危險——中國通過盜竊知識產權和擴大反間諜法恐嚇商界,以至於一些美國公司為在華業務按下了暫停鍵。</span></p><div class="article_ads_p_wrapper" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 7.5px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><p aid="62" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><span style="font-size: medium;">伯恩斯在採訪中表示:「40年來,流出中國的資金首次超過來自美、日、歐、韓投資者的投資。」他分析說,中國政府對外傳遞的信息存在矛盾。一方面,中國政府表示願意繼續商業開放,希望外資企業留在中國,但是另一方面又通過了內容非常籠統的反間諜法修正案,此間又突襲檢查了數家美國在華企業。他表示,美國商界擔心,在世界其它地區完全合法且可接受的做法現在在中國可能會被指控從事間諜活動。</span></p></div><p aid="63" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 15px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><span style="font-size: medium;">伯恩斯說,過去10年,中共權力不斷集中,對人民的鎮壓加劇,中國國家主席習近平推翻了許多制造了中國經濟奇跡的市場改革措施,這些成為重要的發展趨勢。</span></p><p aid="64" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 15px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><span style="font-size: medium;">他說:「但在習近平主席的領導下,由於經濟疲軟和政府嚴厲的政策,中國去年損失了價值超過1200億美元的長期外國投資,這讓美國公司在中國的未來充滿不確定性。</span></p><div class="article_ads_p_wrapper" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 7.5px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><p aid="65" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><span style="font-size: medium;">不過他也強調說,中國是世界第二大經濟體,依舊是一個巨大的市場,所以「一些美國公司離開了(中國市場),但大多數都留下來了」,「也許他們不會離開,但他們不會投資,他們不會進行重大投資,直到他們能夠準確地看出(中國)政府的走向」。</span></p></div><h2 class="subtitle2" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #ff3838; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: 500; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.4em; margin: 20px 0px 10px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 40px 0px 15px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><span style="font-size: medium;">「美中關係是目前世界上最重要、最具競爭性和最危險的關係」</span></h2><p aid="66" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 15px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><span style="font-size: medium;">伯恩斯說,他對未來持謹慎態度,因為中美之間根本性的競爭和不信任正在動搖商界的信心,並將兩國關係推至半個世紀以來的最低點。</span></p><p aid="67" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 15px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><span style="font-size: medium;">伯恩斯說:「這是美國目前在世界上最重要、最具競爭性和最危險的關係,我認為在未來十年左右還會持續如此。」</span></p><div class="article_ads_p_wrapper" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 7.5px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><p aid="68" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><span style="font-size: medium;">採訪伯恩斯的女記者斯塔爾(Lesley Stahl)回應說:「不過你說過,『離婚不是一個選項』。」</span></p></div><p aid="69" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 15px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><span style="font-size: medium;">伯恩斯回答說:「是的。我們兩國必須共同生活。我認為,這是美中關係中最大的緊張局勢。中國是我們最重要的競爭對手,同時,中國也是我們的第三大貿易伙伴——這關係到美國75萬個就業崗位。中國是美國農產品的最大市場。我們所有出口農產品的五分之一都運往中國。去年這一數字為409億美元。」</span></p><p aid="70" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 15px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><span style="font-size: medium;">他補充說:「有些人說:『好吧,我們與中國的競爭如此激烈,我們應該結束經濟關係。』那麼,這樣做的後果將是75萬個美國家庭將無法解決晚餐問題。因此,這使得我的工作中的平衡變得異常困難。」</span></p><p aid="71" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 15px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><span style="font-size: medium;">女記者斯塔爾說:「你正如同走鋼絲。」</span></p><p aid="72" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 15px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><span style="font-size: medium;">伯恩斯回應說:「我們在這裡有相互競爭的利益,平衡這些利益是美中關係的現實。我們要競爭。我們必須負責任地競爭並維護兩國間的和平。但我們也必須參與其中。」</span></p><h2 class="subtitle2" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #ff3838; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: 500; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.4em; margin: 20px 0px 10px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 40px 0px 15px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><span style="font-size: medium;">「我們不想生活在一個中國人佔主導地位的世界」</span></h2><p aid="73" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 15px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><span style="font-size: medium;">在談到去年「間諜氣球」事件過後宛若雲霄飛車般的美中關係時,伯恩斯說:「我認為中國最終希望超越美國,成為主導全球的國家。我們不希望這種情況發生。我們不想生活在一個中國人佔主導地位的世界。」</span></p><p aid="74" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 15px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><span style="font-size: medium;">伯恩斯補充說,將現如今和上世紀的冷戰相比,區別就在於:「蘇聯擁有強大的軍事力量和核武器。但蘇聯的經濟非常疲弱,根本無法與我們競爭。可是中國的經濟非常強勁。我們面對的是一個對手,一個比20世紀40年代、50年代、60年代、70年代和80年代的蘇聯還要強大的競爭對手——中國。」</span></p><p aid="75" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 15px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><span style="font-size: medium;">記者問伯恩斯,如果現在也是一場冷戰,那麼他覺得這是怎樣的一場冷戰。伯恩斯回答說:「這是一場思想的競爭,一場思想的鬥爭。我們的理念是美國關於民主社會和人類自由的偉大理念,而中國則認為共產主義國家比民主國家更強大。我們不相信這一點。因此,這裡存在著一場關於誰的思想應該引領世界的爭論。我們相信,答案是美國的思想。」</span></p></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ODbq_I9--O8" width="320" youtube-src-id="ODbq_I9--O8"></iframe></div><br /><div><br /></div>吴一舟http://www.blogger.com/profile/04733222055917760641noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5670268195357247439.post-3699651737342032912024-03-17T01:20:00.000-07:002024-03-17T01:20:19.495-07:00林庭瑤:「愛國賊」獵巫新三害,莫言怎能無言?<p> 林庭瑤 / 風傳媒 20240316</p><p><br /></p><p aid="61" class="first_p" data-gtm-vis-first-on-screen7300752_206="2924" data-gtm-vis-has-fired7300752_206="1" data-gtm-vis-recent-on-screen7300752_206="2924" data-gtm-vis-total-visible-time7300752_206="100" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 15px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">台灣電影《周處除三害》引爆對岸的「周處熱」方興未艾。不料,中國小粉紅卻在此際高高貼出了「新三害」的標籤:農夫山泉創辦人鍾睒睒、中國作家莫言和清華大學。「新三害」遭到愛國賊集體出征,口誅筆伐,趁勢掀起了一場民族主義愛國狂潮,甚至有擴大之勢,甚至聲討另外一個風頭正勁的民企、比亞迪總裁王傳福。這是新文革再現嗎?</p><h2 class="subtitle2" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #ff3838; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 22px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: 500; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.4em; margin: 20px 0px 10px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 40px 0px 15px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">別來春半,觸目柔腸斷:「反動」標籤任意亂貼</h2><div><br /></div><div class="article_ads_p_wrapper" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 7.5px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><p aid="62" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">「新三害」之首是中國作家莫言,頂著諾貝爾文學獎的光環也無法豁免。立場屬於毛左、在新浪微博有20多萬粉絲的網紅吳萬爭(網名:「說真話的毛星火」),指莫言的《紅高粱》等作品醜化了抗日戰爭期間的「八路軍」、抹黑中國人民,而且頒給他諾貝爾文學獎,是因為其作品「符合西方的政治正確」。吳萬爭要求法院判決莫言向每個中國人道歉及賠償人民幣1元的名譽損失費,共人民幣15億元。</p></div><p aid="63" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 15px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">雖然吳萬爭的提告迄未獲法院受理,但他對莫言的批評引來許多小粉紅追捧。3月4日,中國駐巴西里約熱內盧總領事李楊也加入鬧劇,指稱莫言為「遼瀋戰役紀念館」撰寫的題詞內容:「炮火連天,只為改朝換代;屍橫遍野,俱是農家子弟」,李楊指稱此為「政治反動言論」。</p><div class="dnd-atom-wrapper type-image context-smg_800xauto_er atom-align-center" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; display: table; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px auto; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><div class="dnd-drop-wrapper" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><img alt="《周處除三害》的電影海報。(翻攝官方臉書)" height="271" src="https://image.cache.storm.mg/styles/smg-800xauto-er/s3/media/image/2024/03/13/20240313-114045_U1085_M939065_9a22.jpg?cLO_PxS6Vi_665jpj7XekHHWmCIQY2tQ&itok=nlMkUbEz" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: auto; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: middle; width: 700px; word-break: break-word;" title="《周處除三害》的電影海報。(翻攝官方臉書)" typeof="foaf:Image" width="618" /></div><div class="dnd-legend-wrapper" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; caption-side: bottom; display: table-caption; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><div class="meta" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #999999; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 10px 0px 20px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">台灣電影《周處除三害》引爆對岸的「周處熱」方興未艾。圖為《周處除三害》的電影海報。(翻攝官方臉書)</div></div></div><p aid="64" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 15px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">在莫言之後,這股新義和團的妖風,竟然燒到了北京清華大學。理由是美國政府先前制裁了包括「國防七子」在內的多所中國的大學,但中共前領導人胡錦濤、習近平的母校清華大學,竟然得以倖免於難,其中必有貓膩。</p><h2 class="subtitle2" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #ff3838; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 22px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: 500; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.4em; margin: 20px 0px 10px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 40px 0px 15px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">路遙歸夢難成:槍口對內「發賣國卡」</h2><div class="article_ads_p_wrapper" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 7.5px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><p aid="65" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">「新三害」還有中國飲用水大廠「農夫山泉」的創辦人鍾晱晱。他三度榮膺胡潤富豪榜的首富,但富甲一方的他,最近慘遭網民以「不愛國」為由圍剿,導致產品銷量暴跌了九成,股價狂摔。農夫山泉被圍剿的原因,竟是2011年推出「東方樹葉原味茶」的產品包裝。這個產品的背景圖案是日本廣島五重塔,說是傷害了民族感情;鯉魚旗是日本元素,意圖吹捧日本軍國主義;底部紋路是日本天皇的徽章;紅蓋子代表了日本國旗。這個賣了十多年的商品,沒想到現在居然成了「媚日」產品,就是要把農夫山泉打入十八層地獄,永難翻身。</p></div><p aid="66" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 15px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">這些網友還指控,鍾睒睒創立農夫山泉後,與宗慶后成為競爭對手,甚至互相提告,鍾睒睒有「忘恩負義」之嫌。又有網友指稱,鍾睒睒的兒子鍾墅子已入籍美國,買農夫山泉,形同在跟美國人買水喝。鍾睒睒面對質疑,3月3日發表<a href="https://weibo.com/1778777264/O3kbp8nF5" rel="nofollow" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #ff3838; display: inline; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">〈我與宗老二三事〉</a>文章說,自己的第一桶金並非來自娃哈哈,也從未在娃哈哈領薪;農夫山泉與娃哈哈雖曾有訴訟,但最終握手言和。而他「對宗老(宗慶后)企業家精神的尊敬,卻從沒有動搖過」。</p><div class="dnd-atom-wrapper type-image context-smg_800xauto_er atom-align-center" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; display: table; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px auto; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><div class="dnd-drop-wrapper" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><img alt="農夫山泉鐘睒睒擠下馬雲登上中國首富!(圖/網路截圖)" height="419" src="https://image.cache.storm.mg/styles/smg-800xauto-er/s3/media/image/2020/09/25/20200925-104819_U7321_M641658_d0c2.jpg?nWOTthD7HxGyWERbY9rrM8_7xcNIvrfL&itok=_seRaUUU" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: auto; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: middle; width: 700px; word-break: break-word;" title="農夫山泉鐘睒睒擠下馬雲登上中國首富!(圖/網路截圖)" typeof="foaf:Image" width="625" /></div><div class="dnd-legend-wrapper" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; caption-side: bottom; display: table-caption; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><div class="meta" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #999999; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 10px 0px 20px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">農夫山泉鐘睒睒擠下馬雲登上中國首富,最近慘遭網民以「不愛國」為由圍剿,導致產品銷量暴跌了九成,股價狂摔。(圖/網路截圖)</div></div></div><p aid="67" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 15px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">鍾睒睒為了平息風波,低調辭去旗下子公司的法定代表人。離譜的是,身陷輿論風暴的鍾睒睒喪母,3月14日舉行告別式時。鍾睒睒13日在微信朋友圈直指,母親原本身體健康,但「因為我被莫名網暴,累及母親,為我所憂」而去世,萬分悲痛。歷經喪母之痛的鍾睒睒,竟然還遭到小粉紅的無情出征與圍剿。</p><h2 class="subtitle2" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #ff3838; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 22px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: 500; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.4em; margin: 20px 0px 10px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 40px 0px 15px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">離恨恰如春草:胡錫進也看不下去</h2><div><br /></div><div class="article_ads_p_wrapper" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 7.5px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><p aid="68" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">不僅如此,中國電動汽車生產商比亞迪董事長王傳福也被盯上,被指婚內出軌女高管,兩名私生子女均為美國籍。3月9日,在網上流傳的一段影片中,鬆散機車創始人張小雷實名舉報王傳福婚內出軌女高管,並指女高管以及兩名私生子女均為美國籍,私生子現已經參與比亞迪業務,將導致數百萬比亞迪車主的個資被「美國人」掌控。但舉報影片已在抖音平台遭刪除。</p></div><p aid="69" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 15px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">中國民族主義的集體瘋狂,發作愈趨猖獗。民族主義是一把雙面刃,在被欺壓的弱小國家,它是對抗強權的法寶;但當帝國崛起,它又成了侵凌弱小國家的利器。如同日本評論家加藤嘉一在《愛國賊》書中分析,中國曾發起抵制日貨、抵制家樂福等反日、仇外運動,這些都是狹隘、極端民族主義的展現,與賣國賊一樣,愛國適足以「害國」。</p><div class="dnd-atom-wrapper type-image context-smg_800xauto_er atom-align-center" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; display: table; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px auto; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><div class="dnd-drop-wrapper" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><img alt="比亞迪創辦人兼執行長王傳福。(美聯社)" height="409" src="https://image.cache.storm.mg/styles/smg-800xauto-er/s3/media/image/2024/03/06/20240306-061810_U1085_M937374_5906.jpg?Ah.MgzvniglDK_6Un0fEEAO7hMEhYvBG&itok=-CsgPwJD" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: auto; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: middle; width: 700px; word-break: break-word;" title="比亞迪創辦人兼執行長王傳福。(美聯社)" typeof="foaf:Image" width="613" /></div><div class="dnd-legend-wrapper" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; caption-side: bottom; display: table-caption; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;"><div class="meta" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #999999; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 10px 0px 20px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">比亞迪創辦人兼執行長王傳福,被指婚內出軌女高管,兩名私生子女均為美國籍。(美聯社)</div></div></div><p aid="70" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 15px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">而中國官方媒體也批評,「碰瓷愛國騙流量,不是愛國是害國」。連中共鷹派官媒《環球時報》前總編輯胡錫進也向中國小粉紅發出安撫,他強調,網上不應形成「反美」、「反日」才是愛國主義的壓倒性輿論。胡錫進更呼籲,應該讓一些以愛國主義為名,攻擊民營企業的「網上刺客」們付出代價。</p><p aid="71" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 15px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">更何況,中國總理李強在兩會時說要提升「新質生產力」。當一個企業,它的困境不是因為產品質量、不是因為經營策略、不是因為市場選擇,而僅僅是因為民族情緒、輿論操控的時候,那麼正常的企業該如何生存?沒有企業家精神,沒有良好的投資環境,如何提升「新質生產力」?</p><h2 class="subtitle2" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #ff3838; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 22px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: 500; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.4em; margin: 20px 0px 10px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 40px 0px 15px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">更行更遠還生:泱泱大國虛有其表</h2><p aid="72" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 15px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">誠如荷蘭漢學家馮客在《毛澤東之後的中國》書中指出,從歷史檔案資料來看,中共領導人並沒有明確的長遠規劃,也不清楚該如何引領這個國家一步步走向繁榮。打個比方來說,中國就像一艘油輪,遠遠看上去顯得高大氣派,船長和副手們驕傲地站在艦橋上,可是甲板下的水手正在拚命地抽水和堵破洞,以避免船艦沉沒。根本沒有什麼「宏偉計畫」,也沒有「秘密戰略」,有的只是無數偶發事件,以及無法預料的後果、出人意外的反轉,以及幕後無休止的權力鬥爭。</p><p aid="73" data-gtm-vis-first-on-screen7300752_205="38815" data-gtm-vis-first-on-screen7300752_209="38794" data-gtm-vis-has-fired7300752_205="1" data-gtm-vis-has-fired7300752_209="1" data-gtm-vis-recent-on-screen7300752_205="38815" data-gtm-vis-recent-on-screen7300752_209="38794" data-gtm-vis-total-visible-time7300752_205="100" data-gtm-vis-total-visible-time7300752_209="100" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 15px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">聲稱「新文革」是言過其實,但當下中國確有潛流在蠢蠢欲動。中國面對通貨緊縮和經濟下滑,官方顯然也不希望「仇恨民企」情緒高漲。但小粉紅網民的姿態越來越像文革時的紅衛兵,反智且暴力,這股愛國賊的妖風邪氣,想尋找「尊者」開槍爆頭。但歷史的教訓不能忘記,否則文革悲劇又會重演!</p>吴一舟http://www.blogger.com/profile/04733222055917760641noreply@blogger.com0Beijing, China39.904211 116.40739511.593977163821151 81.251145 68.214444836178842 151.563645tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5670268195357247439.post-54661064180587474032024-03-16T23:57:00.000-07:002024-03-16T23:57:37.101-07:00夏明:习近平开启“新毛时代”,中国进入寒冬腊月<p> 夏明 法广 20240316</p><p><br /></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #313131; font-family: Roboto, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">2024年中国人大政协两会落下帷幕。这次会议既没有宣布重大的人事任免,也没有出台振兴经济的有力措施,在经济放缓的背景下,国家安全议题却被提上首位。与往年的会议相比,今次会议似乎较为平淡,并在十分低调的氛围下闭幕。但是,从取消会议闭幕后的记者会、一改持续了30多年的传统做法;到总理政府工作报告中打破纪录地近20次提及习近平的名字等种种迹象中不难看出:习近平的个人权力得到了进一步的加强。如何评判2024年的人大会议?我们请纽约市立大学研究生中心政治学教授夏明先生来阐述一下他的看法。</span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #313131; font-family: Roboto, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><div class="t-content__body u-clearfix" style="-webkit-box-flex: 0; background-color: white; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; flex: 0 1 auto; font-family: Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px auto 20px; max-width: 850px; padding: 0px;"><p style="-webkit-box-flex: 0; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; flex: 0 1 auto; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px 0px 28px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-weight: 700;">法广:</span>首先请您点评一下2024年的中国人大会议?与历届会议相比,今年的人大有什么不同之处?</span></p><p style="-webkit-box-flex: 0; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; flex: 0 1 auto; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px 0px 28px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-weight: 700;">夏明:</span>是,今年的人大至少-因为我正好是研究人大的-和我所梳理的1954年到当下-除了文革以外,因为文革人大是被终止了-可以这样说,今天的刚结束的人大,跟中国人的关系<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>普通老百姓的关系基本上是越来越远了。也就是跟其他的相比,它的价值<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>作用是走到了低点。但是另一方面,因为今年也正好是中国的人大的建立70周年-因为54年宪法-,也是政协建立75周年-政协是跟着中华人民共和国1949年一起诞生的-。所以人大跟政协两会的召开,如果是照一个正常的政治的氛围的话,应该说今年的人大和政协都应该是比较重要的,因为它标志着它的70周年<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>75周年。但是,今年的这个人大和政协两会反而开成了一次自我阉割的会议。也就是说我们看到了人大的权力<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>甚至政协的权力出现了完全的颠覆。习近平达到了他完全的个人权力集中,不仅是坚持党的绝对领导,而且是要坚持党的集中领导,是要以习近平的“新时代的社会主义思想”<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>什么“中国特色的社会主义思想”等等来指导。</span></p><p style="-webkit-box-flex: 0; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; flex: 0 1 auto; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px 0px 28px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">其实呢,这次许多的作为是完全颠覆了1982年的宪法。我以前提出过中国在1982年制定的宪法,其实到了习近平上台以后-也就是2012年以后-尤其是深化改革的决议出现,后来国家安全委员会的建立,就其实已经出现了宪法政变了。今天当然是完全完成了过去10年的宪法政变<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>一步一步。所以今天我们可以说,中国在1954年宪法建立的“议行合一”的人民代表大会制度完全被颠覆,现在变成一种权力皆归朝廷。从某种程度上来说,跟朱元璋当时又一次废相是可以比的。所有的这些做的许多的事情,把一个代议<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>咨议机构-咨议机构是政协,代议机构当然就是人大。从理论上来说,它们其实是代表现代的一个政治观念,就是人民主权,但是当下这个两会明确无误的宣誓:它完成了一个宪法政变,就把这么一个代表人民主权的咨议<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>代议机构-两会, 完全变成了一个膜拜党魁元首的道场。</span></p><p style="-webkit-box-flex: 0; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; flex: 0 1 auto; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px 0px 28px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">这是一个颠覆,这些颠覆里边是由具体的几个事情来完成的。其实最大的,当然就是修订国务院的组织法。国务院在强化它的权力的同时,就是国务院强化对地方政府的人员任命和领导,国务院强化对副部级干部的直接任命和领导,国务院在它的体系内部是在集权,尤其是针对地方在集权。但是,国务院相对于中共中央来说,又在不断地自我阉割,也就是说,李强在又一次废相的过程中,就完全的把权力交给了朝廷,成为了朝廷的<span style="font-weight: 700;">-</span>也就是习近平的-一个听命的命官。</span></p><p style="-webkit-box-flex: 0; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; flex: 0 1 auto; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px 0px 28px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">国务院组织法-说是四十年没有修订-,但是这次修订,完全地把国务院作为一个在“议行合一”人大制度下,作为一个中国的政府最高的机关<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>也是中国的人大的执行机关,其实把它给颠覆了,直接变成党的这么一个执行机关。与此相关的,当然就是总理的新闻发布会被取消,也可以看到,当赵乐际在主持人大,有高院<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>检察院,他们在进行汇报工作的时候,有人指出:他里边有词句可能不好,那么习近平当然就开始在会场上训话,对赵乐际<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>对周边的人就开始下指示。因为这个会议开得非常的沉闷,总理的新闻发布会都被取消了。所有的这些政府官员<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>人大代表,个个都是噤若寒蝉,没有一个敢说真话,更不要说还敢代表人民表达民意了。所以看到这些官方的代表个个都在背稿子,许多稿子也背不出来,也都在献丑。人民代表大会的代表跟记者-不要说跟外国记者-跟自己国内的人民日报的记者都基本上完全停止了这种互动。这种表现,再加上在最后我们看到的经济部门的这些首脑,他们的记者招待会上,人民日报的一位记者-据目前反映的情况-是里边的某一位部长的一位情妇,在情妇喊冤。结果又重现了中国反腐要靠情妇<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>要靠小三。</span></p><p style="-webkit-box-flex: 0; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; flex: 0 1 auto; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px 0px 28px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">同时就在两会要结束的时候,在中南海的新华门前,也出现了有人驾着豪车去冲撞新华门。据说这车子是非常好的。据目前的情况来说,是官二代。所以你可以看到,无论是在会场内<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>还是会场外,都反映出了中国的政治在走向一种非常危险的方向,也就是说,有一种豪车撞墙的这种氛围。</span></p><p style="-webkit-box-flex: 0; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; flex: 0 1 auto; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px 0px 28px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-weight: 700;">法广:</span>您怎样看待中国突出关注安全议题?</span></p><p style="-webkit-box-flex: 0; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; flex: 0 1 auto; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px 0px 28px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-weight: 700;">夏明</span>:对,习近平这次显然对安全-因为习近平提出了一个绝对的安全观,提出一种全面的新安全观-,当然他是非常的重视这种绝对的安全观<span style="font-weight: 700;">。</span>新安全观,当然是管天<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>管地<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>管空气<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>管五湖四海<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>管海外的华人<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>管生态<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>金融等等。他的表达-你可以看到-有两点显示的非常清楚:第一个,是习近平专门走访了解放军和武警的代表团的全体会议。这里边当然就显示出了一个非常明确的信息即:他对解放军和武警的重视。其他的团他都没有去走访;第二个,就是他强化军费开支。今天,当下中国的经济,国务院政府工作报告或者官方的统计说(增长)是大概是5%左右。但是根据中国的实际的观察,或者说有经济学家或者国外的思想库进行各种的研究认为:中国经济去年的增长绝不会超过3%,甚至有的人认为还是负增长。在这样的情况下,军费的开支远远超过国民经济增长。而且当下在中国,老百姓普遍的面临着有的还是在返贫,中产阶级面临着大面积的破产,而连中国的精英阶层<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>富裕的阶级其实也在进行某种紧缩。但这个时候军费的开支以7.2%的速度增加,当然显示出习近平是非常关注这个安全议题的。这个安全议题的强化对内的镇压功能,因为我们知道1989年天安门事件,最后是用解放军来收场的。当然我认为更重要的,是他在安抚镇压机器,就是说:练兵千日<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>用兵一时;养兵千日<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>用兵一时。今天给你吃得好,明天你就要干得好。习近平不断地强化对安全的考虑,这种强化当然也会引起中国在国外对对外的<span style="font-weight: 700;">,</span>尤其是对海外华人<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>对台湾<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>对周边这些邻近的小国-尤其在南海-,他可能都会有继续的一些粗暴的<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>或者战狼外交的各种做法。但是有一点,无论他怎么做这个安全的议题,因为中国当下最大的问题还是民生问题<span style="font-weight: 700;">,</span>最大的问题还是中国的经济能不能走出目前的危机的问题<span style="font-weight: 700;">。</span>中国经济现在陷入一个不仅是中等国家陷阱,还有人口的陷阱,可能会进入这么一种“L”的长期的停滞<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>甚至衰败。</span></p><p style="-webkit-box-flex: 0; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; flex: 0 1 auto; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px 0px 28px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">中国现在面临着一个以经济的冲突<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>也就是它的以强化安全利益,用安全来压倒一切-以前是稳定压倒一切,现在是变成了绝对安全压到一切-。其实它在不断地强化习近平喜欢讲的“治国理政”,在强化他的治理成本。同样的,因为经济的各种问题,他用安全的方式来去解决,也就是说杀鸡用牛刀。对安全的问题,他的过度的重视,其实就是在牺牲地方的活力<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>牺牲人民的创新性<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>牺牲企业家的各种的安全感。这样的话,他其实使得整个治理的收益又在不断地下降。所以他不断地飘升的治理成本反映在军费的开支,和他的治理收益的不断地下降,表现在他的经济的普遍危机和房地产的普遍的崩盘,形成这个剪刀差,让中国的-无论是执政党来说<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>还是中国的普通老百姓来说-恐怕今天是在过去的45年以来,最不应该有安全感的<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>恐怕是最有大的风险的这么一个时期的到来,从某种程度上来说,我们也可以说是习近平在过去十几年-当然也不完全只是习近平,其实从习近平以前中共的领导人-就在酿这杯苦酒。今天我看到这个照片,英国《卫报》发表的习近平在人代会上有两个杯子,据人们分析,一个杯子是茶,另一个杯子是药,习近平喝了一个杯子,脸部表情非常痛苦的样子。我们就可以想象是不是习近平身体出了什么问题?进入到一种病夫治国的状态?或者说习近平今天坐在舞台上,这个舞台上过去演绎了许多故事<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>最近的就是胡锦涛被强制送出场外,李克强完成他的任期,最后人间蒸发了。习近平何尝又不是在吞自己酿的这个苦酒?所以我觉得,习近平和李克强他们都说过的一句话就说“人在做<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>天在看”。这里边,恐怕是关注中国当下安全还是非安全议题,应该记住的一句话</span></p><p style="-webkit-box-flex: 0; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; flex: 0 1 auto; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px 0px 28px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-weight: 700;">法广:</span>最后请谈谈,2024年的人大会议传出了怎样的信息?</span></p><p style="-webkit-box-flex: 0; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; flex: 0 1 auto; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px 0px 28px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-weight: 700;">夏明:</span>是,我注意到2024年的人大会议有两个比较重要(的地方),也值得我们大家关注。一个,就是他不断地强调“全过程的民主”;另外一个,就是提出中国要加强“新质的生产力”的建设等等。这两个就完全变成另一种笑话,而且有一种黑色幽默感。因为从我们刚才讨论的对国务院组织法的完全的修订,把国务院变成一个完全的<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>没有任何权力的<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>或者就是说,过去在中国共产党<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>甚至在苏共的整个历史期间,都还有一种三架马车的这么一种格局就是:党跟国家领导人<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>还有政府首脑,三者由不同的人来担任,三者还形成一定的集体领导<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>分工合作。今天就全部都给颠覆了。习近平建立了一种以他的国家元首<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>以他的党<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>国<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>军三位一体,在所谓的五个统一的下边<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>两个维护,就完全把他所说的“全过程民主”演绎成了全过程的党主,而这个党主,其实就由党魁习近平来主导,这是非常具有讽刺意义的。因为我们在经常讲到中国历史进程的时候,我们在西方经常会说“毛时代”。后来毛泽东死了以后,邓小平以后就到了“后毛时代”。但是现在,显然习近平已经走出了“后毛时代”,习近平其实又进入到了“新毛时代”。从这个角度来说,中国的寒冬腊月正好在到来。</span></p><p style="-webkit-box-flex: 0; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; flex: 0 1 auto; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px 0px 28px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">另外一个,习近平也很清楚,中国的经济面临着一个非常大的危机,他想走出来。但是你会发现:他没有找到很好的药方。因为他们没有找准这个问题,更没有找准这个问题的根源。这个问题的根源就在于:他们执政的政策和他们执政的根本的方向和处理跟经济、尤其跟民营经济和外资的关系、处理跟西方大国<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>周边国家的关系、处理跟世界上目前跨国公司所主导的整个全球生产链条<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>价值链条<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>供应链条的关系,他都没有处理好,带来了当下经济的全方位的危机。但是他提出了一个非常高大上的所谓的“新质生产力”,其实这个非常荒诞,就在于:无论他所说的什么“新质生产力”,最近我们就看过去三年的中美科技竞争,在每一项重要的竞争中,中国都输给了美国。我们首先看新冠疫苗:中国输给了美国;如果再看芯片战争:中国也输给了美国;我们再看最近的比较热闹的人工智慧:中国现在也是远远落在美国的后面。另外我们再看所谓的中国想用电动车来弯道超车,在汽车生产上能够超过西方国家。但是除了 “量”上超过,从质量上<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>从整个在生产的过程中和市场上获得的利润上,中国生产的这些汽车,无论如何不能跟欧美的汽车相比,(不能和)日本的相比。所以这里边他所谓的“新质生产力”,因为中国现在在跟整个西方国家在作对,也就是说,中国现在逐渐地被西方国家所排挤出整个的科学<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>合作<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>竞争开发的体系,尤其在高科技和高利润的区域里边排挤中国加入生产链条。所以对习近平来说,他现在一切的做法,在包括所谓的要清除西方的科技,其实不是他主动清除的问题,西方国家就在主动在排挤中国。我们在教育领域里边就看得非常清楚:中国的留学生要在美国的关键领域来获得博士学位,现在我们这些教授的跟中美的交流<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>留学生交流基本上陷入一种完全的停滞状态。整个由西方国家主导的科技体系,在中国在进行一种非常大的惩罚。所以当中国失去这种体系的优势,想搞所谓“独立自主”的开发体系,这跟毛泽东的“大跃进”和“自力更生”其实是会殊途同归。</span></p><p style="-webkit-box-flex: 0; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #454545; flex: 0 1 auto; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px 0px 28px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">所以我觉得再看这个人大-我的一个感觉-就是,尤其是作为一个研究中国的(学者),在海外看到有许多的中国通也会犯对中国的许多的误判,那么我有四个感想:第一个,不要相信中共党国体制是大而不倒的,它其实就是一个泥足巨人,它垮(下来)是有非常高的可能的;第二,不要迷信最高领导无处不及<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>无所不能,不要以为最高领导把所有的权力集中在手中,他就可以命令每一个人跟他跳舞,但不是这样的;最后我们可以看到一个病夫治国,我们可以看到一个专制者的困境,我们可以看到有官员躺平<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>有老百姓躺平<span style="font-weight: 700;">、</span>有各种抵制。另外,我也觉得大家不要自设陷阱,盲目地以为中共在这些所有的做法中又在下险棋、又在玩大招,其实有时他们是很被动,其实在应付,没有这么积极的什么三十六计、孙子兵法,不要自己吓自己;最后,当我们看到总理的记者招待会被取消,习近平当然也不会愿意跟记者见面的,其实我们就不要低估了中共领导治理能力的短板,其实会是很低的。所以我们不要低估了中共领导治理能力丧失和它溃败的速度。观察两会,给我许多的启示,我希望对我们的听众朋友也有些启示。</span></p></div><div class="t-content__authors" style="-webkit-box-flex: 0; background-color: white; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; flex: 0 1 auto; font-family: Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px auto 40px; max-width: 850px; padding: 0px;"><div class="m-author-n-reading-time" style="-webkit-box-align: center; -webkit-box-flex: 0; -webkit-box-pack: start; align-items: center; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; flex: 0 1 auto; gap: 15px; justify-content: flex-start; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><div class="m-author-n-reading-time__authors" style="-webkit-box-flex: 0; -webkit-box-pack: start; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; flex: 0 1 auto; gap: 3px; justify-content: flex-start; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><div class="m-from-author" style="-webkit-box-align: center; -webkit-box-flex: 0; align-items: center; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6f6e71; display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; flex: 0 1 auto; gap: 5px; line-height: 1.4; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span class="m-from-author__by-label"><span style="font-size: medium;">作者:</span></span><a class="m-from-author__name" data-tms-tr="" href="https://www.rfi.fr/cn/%E4%BD%9C%E8%80%85/%E6%B5%81%E8%8A%B3/" style="-webkit-box-flex: 0; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #e2001a; flex: 0 1 auto; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;" title="流芳"><span style="font-size: medium;">流芳</span></a></div></div></div></div>吴一舟http://www.blogger.com/profile/04733222055917760641noreply@blogger.com0Beijing, China39.904211 116.40739511.593977163821151 81.251145 68.214444836178842 151.563645tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5670268195357247439.post-49663812086472075222024-03-16T16:19:00.000-07:002024-03-16T16:20:04.291-07:00林保華:台灣錢淹腳目,是機會也有風險<div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr"><p style="margin:0px 0px 1em;padding:0px;color:rgb(102,102,102);font-family:Verdana;font-size:12.8px">Newtalk新聞 財經</p><div id="gmail-adsolut" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;color:rgb(102,102,102);font-family:Verdana;font-size:12.8px"></div><p style="margin:0px 0px 1em;padding:0px;color:rgb(102,102,102);font-family:Verdana;font-size:12.8px">林保華</p><p style="margin:0px 0px 1em;padding:0px;color:rgb(102,102,102);font-family:Verdana;font-size:12.8px">發布 2024.03.16 | 23:26<br><img alt="台股首次突破兩萬,陳建仁在臉書發文表示這代表台灣經濟穩健發展。 圖:翻攝陳建仁臉書" class="gmail-ls-is-cached gmail-lazyloaded" src="https://images.newtalk.tw/resize_action2/800/album/news/912/65ebca2a90b92.jpg" title="林保華觀點》台灣錢淹腳目,是機會也有風險" style="border: 0px; margin-right: 0px;" width="452" height="452"><br>台股首次突破兩萬,陳建仁在臉書發文表示這代表台灣經濟穩健發展。 圖:翻攝陳建仁臉書</p><p style="margin:0px 0px 1em;padding:0px;font-family:Verdana"><font size="4" style="" color="#000000"><br></font></p><p style="margin:0px 0px 1em;padding:0px;font-family:Verdana"><font size="4" color="#000000">元大台灣價值高息ETF(00940)發行,掀起空前搶購熱潮,原來準備募集600億元新台幣(下同)的資金,如今已經大大超過一千億元,由於認購者洶湧,有的銀行在期限以前就已經提前停止服務。</font></p><p style="margin:0px 0px 1em;padding:0px;font-family:Verdana"><font size="4" color="#000000">ETF就是指數股票型基金。想買股票又不懂股票的人,買這種基金最適合。因為它有許多類型,最受歡迎的是高股息ETF,它網羅了高股息股票;不久前新加坡大華銀行還發行高股息高填息,提到"高填息"好像就此一家。當然不同ETF,即使都是高股息,選擇的股票與所佔比例不同,因此派的股息也不同。除了高股息之外,也有幾種在高科技、5G或電動汽車業的,還有國外的股票等,有些沒有派息,只賺差價。哪一種最賺錢,要看哪一個團隊最好,而且最好不等於永遠好。</font></p><p style="margin:0px 0px 1em;padding:0px;font-family:Verdana"><font size="4" color="#000000">目前台灣發行的ETF有幾十個,規模已達3.2兆,其中元大發行的接近1/3。最早的元大高股息(0056)發行於17年前的2007年,發行價25元,一股已經派息22.25元(現在是一季派一次),3月15日收盤價39.02元。這次發行的00940才10元一張,每個月派息一次(第一次今年8月),自然很吸引經濟基礎還薄弱的小資族初哥,或者老年退休者。對股市老手來說,他們找的是飆股,對ETF興趣不大,因為利息再多也遠遠趕不上股票飆升後的差價。現在最熱門的是有關AI的股票,但是派高息的不多,而是放眼看未來的股價。</font></p><p style="margin:0px 0px 1em;padding:0px;font-family:Verdana"><font size="4" color="#000000">太陽花運動正滿10年,蔡英文執政也8年了,因為逐漸擺脫多中國的經濟依賴,加上中美貿易戰,台灣股市從一萬點以下一路往上爬。股市的吸引力股民也就越來越多,因為有許多初哥,買ETF比買其他股票更加安全,因此投入ETF的資金愈來愈多。這次正好有元大這家經營證券很多年而又名氣很大的證券行發行,價格又是很低的10元,自然吸引了不少人認購。</font></p><p style="margin:0px 0px 1em;padding:0px;font-family:Verdana"><font size="4" color="#000000">然而ETE與普通上市櫃股票不同,它不可能飆高,例如50種股票組成,一種兩種股票飆高不會對ETF價格產生太大的影響,更不可能漲停板;即使有人搶購ETF,拉高它的價格,如果所含的股票不動或只是微動,這個ETF肯定失去價格上的支持而被人拋售。這與新股上市上櫃大部分可以由莊家操控飆升不同。如果那樣理解,就認購錯了。</font></p><p style="margin:0px 0px 1em;padding:0px;font-family:Verdana"><font size="4" color="#000000">如今台灣加權指數已經兩次越過兩萬點再回頭調整,也就是在高檔徘徊,如果4月1日00940開始交易時股市大跌,低於組成這個ETF時的價格,那麼這個00940就可能低於10元。目前只能期望因為錢淹腳目,股市可以一直向上,這個ETF的價格也就不斷上升。根據好多專家的看法,現在不要為股市設天花板而自縛手腳;但是也要一步一步走,如履薄冰。除了重大意外,美國、台灣的股市應該會繼續向上,台灣股市很少可能再回到一萬點以下,所以這次的資金潮是為大家提供賺錢的機會。這種機會不多,原因之一是大量資金從中國撤出,回到美國、日本、新加坡、台灣等地,推升當地股市。然而也要提防有人眼紅而製造事端。而股市最基本的規律是上上下下,不可能一直升,也不可能一直跌。一切量力而行,不要投入全部金錢,更不要借貸,要有放長線的準備,不要有太重的急功近利的賭徒心態。</font></p><p style="margin:0px 0px 1em;padding:0px;font-family:Verdana"><font size="4" style="" color="#000000">當年台灣錢淹腳目時,發生過很著名的鴻源弊案,這家成立於1981年的投資機構,實為老鼠會,藉由提供誘人的高利率,非法吸集民間游資近新台幣1,000億元;結果鴻源機構在1990年突然倒閉,留下債權人16萬人與負債新台幣900餘億元的殘局,一時間造成台灣金融體系動盪不安。這兩年台灣股市蒸蒸日上,已經出現許多網路騙子假冒名人代為操盤股市,這些還是小騙子,然而大家對各式各樣的風險還是不得不防,因為總有那麼一些人在動你口袋的腦筋。</font></p><p style="margin:0px 0px 1em;padding:0px;color:rgb(102,102,102);font-family:Verdana;font-size:12.8px"><br>原文網址: 林保華觀點》台灣錢淹腳目,是機會也有風險 | 財經 | Newtalk新聞 <a href="https://newtalk.tw/news/view/2024-03-16/912494">https://newtalk.tw/news/view/2024-03-16/912494</a></p><a href="https://lingfengcomment.pixnet.net/blog/post/36594053" target="_blank">https://lingfengcomment.pixnet.net/blog/post/36594053</a></div> </div></div> NCNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16079153443162336173noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5670268195357247439.post-29921714301126488442024-03-16T12:00:00.000-07:002024-03-16T12:00:00.299-07:00陶傑:百年仅此一士<p> 陶傑 / 苹果日報 20200104</p><p><br /></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em; margin-top: 0px; outline: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">一生很短促,首先要做好一个人,然后要做好一名世界公民。</span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">做世界公民,由胡适最先提倡。</span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">胡适留学美国康乃尔,一九一四年,目睹美国出兵墨西哥维拉古鲁斯,爆发七个月战争。其时美国为强权,墨西哥为弱国。</span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">胡适在绮色佳(Ithaca)的当地杂志,挑动大美国民族主义,声称My country,right or wrong,my country,意即美国即使欺压弱小的墨西哥,占夺其土地,只要我是美国人,就要支持。</span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">胡适写信到当地一张报纸,严正指出:此等但问国界、不论是非;但论民族血统、不问善恶之说,不对的。胡适在大学与美国学生争论,质问:若一个国家的政府,违反宪法,向公民非法征税,或非法将我的财产充公,或未经审讯将我投入监狱,这种国家行为,侵害个人利益,也违反宪法精神,国家是对还是错?</span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">美国学生哑口无言。这也难怪,因为胡适来自具有两千年秦始皇帝权专制的中国,这种国家经历无数文字狱与抄家。美国立国方二百年,自华盛顿以来,康奈尔的美国同学并无远东那种帝皇“朕即国家”的概念。</span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">在美国人眼中,华盛顿是圣人(确实也是),国家体现了民主与博爱。美国的国家权力,受到民主约束,那时的美国人没有“国家可以作恶”的概念。</span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">但胡适超越了他同代的美国人。他认为不论是何民族,若在世界受到尊重,不管国内国外,只应奉行一个是非标准。此一标准应超越民族利益,以人类长远的幸福和公义为凭。</span></p><p class="inline-ad-slot" data-adtags-visited="true" data-adtags-width="740" id="inline-ad-0" style="background-color: white; float: left; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; height: 0px; margin: 0px auto; overflow: hidden; width: 740px;"></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">胡适是一名世界主义者,但这一点不妨碍他对中国的钟爱。他认为:一切爱国主义精神必须以人道为依归。当自己的国家政权,包括自己的人民不讲道理,而常识和公义在世界那一边,胡适选择的是世界。</span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">因此胡适论八国联军事件,称义和团为“拳匪”,表达了对是非的基本态度。胡适崇尚自由,厌恶愚昧的国家主义和狭隘的民族主义。胡适的名言:“为你个人争自由,就是为你的国家争自由。”</span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">意思就是:人的一生很短,不要被国家民族这类魔幻化的集体名词吓住。他相信法国大革命时期,英国的一位公共知识份子潘恩的名言:“世界是我的祖国,人类是我的同胞”。</span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">中国百年公共知识份子,如此通澈,历久常新,唯胡适先生一人。</span></p><p data-adtags-visited="true" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin-bottom: 0.875em;"><span style="font-size: medium;">原载苹果日报</span></p>吴一舟http://www.blogger.com/profile/04733222055917760641noreply@blogger.com0Taiwan23.69781 120.960515-4.612423836178845 85.804265 52.008043836178842 156.116765tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5670268195357247439.post-46056016255752635762024-03-16T00:29:00.000-07:002024-03-16T00:29:10.522-07:00总理记者会遭取消,曾被斥为“作秀”,如今却被怀念的“有限知情权”?<div style="text-align: left;">撰文 :夏念梓</div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>歪脑</b> 03/15/2024</div><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">延续30余年,被喻为紧跟中国改革开放脉搏的总理记者会突遭煞停。2024年3月4日,在中国第14届全国人民代表大会二次会议的会前记者会上,人大发言人娄勤俭表示,今年人大会议闭幕后,国务院总理李强不会召开总理记者会,后几年也不会举行。大会新闻中心将增加部长记者会,为中外记者提供更多的采访机会。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3GaWsELhEdTGodbJ8UqpGoTsSdQRpC6CrD4F39XxfSL3xFrQaWTwNSFYKVuozv527BdtbXlKjUm-k44fFQIj0acvbxmvHmfsCPkVs9Yn4cW4uP3WSzIidFIT3WpUe_Zaswsvdp7nnUCDqAbCfNNc5LIdf_9zCR61EdR9ypfUdwk7l47cizLb2KtOhssCF/s4096/image.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2731" data-original-width="4096" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3GaWsELhEdTGodbJ8UqpGoTsSdQRpC6CrD4F39XxfSL3xFrQaWTwNSFYKVuozv527BdtbXlKjUm-k44fFQIj0acvbxmvHmfsCPkVs9Yn4cW4uP3WSzIidFIT3WpUe_Zaswsvdp7nnUCDqAbCfNNc5LIdf_9zCR61EdR9ypfUdwk7l47cizLb2KtOhssCF/s320/image.png" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p>2024年3月4日,第十四届全国人大二次会议新闻发言人娄勤俭在北京人民大会堂举行新闻发布会 ( AFP / WANG ZHAO )</p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">娄勤俭宣布取消总理记者会后,外界认为其措辞相当含糊(“过几年也不会举行”到底是要“过几年”?);取消理由也很牵强,毕竟李强在2023年曾主持过一次记者会,表现被评为“中规中矩”。由于事出突然,新加坡《联合早报》指,就连一些身居要职的高官也表示此前并不知情,还有全国政协委员认为这一决定有些“奇怪”,应该给公众一个交代。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">每年全国两会后国务院举行中外记者会的惯例缘起于1987年中共十三大,时任总书记赵紫阳在党代会后举行记者招待会,首开先河。 1988年,中央电视台开始直播两会结束后的记者会。1990年,受六四事件的后续影响,两会后没有举行总理记者会。之后在1991年恢复,时任国务院总理李鹏出席。 1993年起,两会后总理记者会趋于制度化、常态化。 1998年朱镕基出任总理后,记者会更成为两会中的焦点,时间也延长到两个至两个半小时。从1991年至2023年,这32届总理记者会作为两会的“休止符”,为沈闷的议程带去了仅有的“亮点”,成为各界对两会的重要期待。而历届总理在记者会直播中时不时爆出的“金句”,或引发的意外状况,也令总理记者会成为两会各项议程中,最具谈资、收视率最高和最受关注的节目。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">这一传统恐成绝响,意味着国人再也无法收看“总理答记者问”这一具历史意义的直播节目,中外媒体被剥夺了几乎是仅有的能向中国顶层施政者当面提问的机会,全世界亦再失去了一个了解中国政策和动向的重要窗口。此次总理记者会遭无限期煞停,不意外地引发外界对中国政局的各种揣测,除了叹息改革开放将进一步“开倒车”之外,各界亦忧虑中国的政治走向将陷入黑暗、陷入沉默。对于普通老百姓来说,失去了“有限的知情权”,之后要面对的会不会是无限的权力黑箱?</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>搭台唱戏,一场早已安排好的对外宣传秀</b></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">2013年3月17日,全国人大闭幕后,中国国务院总理李克强在北京人民大会堂举行新闻发布会 ( AFP / Ed Jones )</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">历年的总理记者会主要由全国人大新闻局筹备,负责邀请和招待媒体。从1993年开始,总理记者会的与会媒体数量从600到800家不等,但通常一场记者会的提问人次不会超过20位。时间则一般控制在一个半小时到两个半小时左右。不过,2012年温家宝总理任内的最后一届记者会时长近3小时。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">由于总理记者会一开始的设立初衷就是为了提供一个采访机会给境外媒体,以宣传中国内政外交政策,因此负责“点将”的记者会主持人,均由全国人大外事委员会主任委员、即退休的外交部官员担任。原外交部部长李肇星就曾担任多届记者会主持人。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p>2009年,李肇星和温家宝在总理记者会上 ( AFP / LIU JIN )</p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">全国人大新闻局在发放时邀请函,会更多照顾外国和港澳台媒体。 2007年,大会发放的750张邀请函中,外国记者占了350张,港澳台和大陆记者各占200张。提问机会也向外媒倾斜。 1999年朱镕基总理的记者会上,8个提问机会中外媒得到5个;而在温家宝两届任期内的10次总理记者会中,每年都有6到7家外媒获得提问机会。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">外媒中,美国媒体获得的提问机会最多,其次是英国媒体和日本媒体。每年都有一家台湾媒体和香港媒体获得提问机会。在大陆媒体中,获得最多提问机会的是《人民日报》和中央电视台。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">至2014年,只有央视和新华社曾经两次获得首次提问的机会。其余“首发”的七家媒体分别是:农民日报、美国华尔街日报、凤凰卫视、中国日报、英国金融时报、人民日报人民网和新加坡联合早报。在朱镕基和李克强的首场记者会中,首个提问机会均给了外国媒体。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">每场记者会,中国的经济发展是记者关注的主要问题,占提问的两成左右,包括金融体制改革、物价体制改革、人民币汇率、私营企业发展和国企改革。当然,外媒也会提出不少“敏感”议题,包括领土问题(西藏、台湾和香港)、人权问题、政治体制改革、贪腐问题等。香港记者关心的是“如何支持香港发展”,台湾记者则聚焦“怎样加强两岸合作”。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">如何从几百名记者脱颖而出? 1998年朱镕基在记者会上“钦点”一身红装的香港凤凰卫视记者吴小莉提问后,令凤凰卫视和吴本人从默默无名到家喻户晓。亦有记者另辟蹊径。 2006年温家宝的总理记者会中,有记者突然起身,挥舞着拐杖抗议“提问权要民主一点”。温家宝随即请他提问。 76岁、来自台湾《人权新闻通讯社》的周自立于是问了与环保相关的问题,他指“上海的水是黄的,不能吃了,即便经济发展得再好,丰功伟业也会化为乌有。”</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>管中窥豹?在“被安排”下捕捉意外和脱序</b></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p>2008年,北京一家餐馆的电视正在播放中国总理温家宝在全国人民代表大会闭幕式的新闻发布会的讲话 ( AFP / PETER PARKS )</p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">即便记者会直播的形式让现场少了过滤与宣传的意味,但事实上所有的问题都是预先准备好的。媒体圈内人尽皆知的秘密就是,看似随机的记者会实则是一场事先安排好的的公关秀。《纽约时报》2014年文章披露,总理记者会所有的问题都事先经过了审查,外交部的官员和外国记者早在大会召开几个月前开始谈判,允许讨论哪些话题,及可接受的问题该怎样措辞,并规定哪些问题绝对不能出现(在2014年,它们是昆明火车站持刀砍人事件、西藏自焚事件、周永康)。而这样的安排已经至少存在了10年,外媒之所以愿意“被利用”和配合中国政府操纵其公众形象,是因为惹怒中国官员会有危险,他们有权推迟或拒绝给记者发签证。其他的指责还包括“假”记者,一些外国记者其实受雇于受中国官方操纵、冒充海外新闻机构的媒体公司。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">即便总理记者会被官方“控场”,中外记者愈来愈沦为“作秀”的工具人,但这有限的百余分钟仍然考验每一位总理的口才和应变能力,更是他们展现个人风格的舞台。朱镕基、温家宝和李克强三位总理都以抛数据、掉书袋见长。旁征博引的同时,他们偶尔展现出来的幽默感,令这些高高在上、不苟言笑的中共领导人难得有机会,将人性化的一面展露在公众面前。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">2002年,朱镕基最后一届总理记者会上,法新社记者提问“下一届总理应该在哪个方面向你学习,哪个方面不该向你学习?”时,朱镕基表示,自己除了埋头苦干外没有什么优点。并称“某家香港报纸说我的本事就是拍桌子、捶板凳、瞪眼睛,那就更不要学习我”。自嘲过后,他补充指:“但是这家报纸说得不对,桌子是拍过,眼睛也瞪过,不瞪眼睛不就是植物人了嘛,板凳绝对没有捶过,那捶起来是很疼的。” ,并指“我从来不吓唬老百姓,只吓唬那些贪官污吏。”</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">在记者会上,总理或会就中国本年度的重大政治事件表态,这自然是各路媒体最期待的“大新闻”,因为这代表了中国政府对此最高层次和最权威的回应。 2012年温家宝最后一次总理记者会上,温代表中央首次对“王立军事件”表态:“我可以告诉大家,中央高度重视,立即责成相关部门进行专门调查。”有关中央对重庆的态度,温家宝表态称“现任重庆市委和市政府必须反思,并认真从王立军事件中吸取教训。”这一表态,在当时薄熙来尚未被官方宣布涉案的情况下,被外界解读为释放出某种特殊的政治信号。</span></p><p><br /></p><p>2012年,温家宝在总理记者会上 ( AFP / LIU JIN )</p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">李克强总理曾在记者会上预先透露有关改革劳教制度的进展,“有关中国劳教制度的改革方案,有关部门正在抓紧研究制定,年内有望出台。”半年后,中共十八大三中全会废止劳教制度。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">与前任留下的豪言壮语式的金句相比( 温家宝:“苟利国家生死以,岂因祸福避趋之”;朱镕基:“不管前面是地雷阵还是万丈深渊,我都将一往无前,义无反顾,鞠躬尽瘁,死而后已。 ”),在习近平的高压时代,李克强留下的金句则更有现实意义。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">2020年,李克强在总理记者会上谈到中国当前6亿人口的月收入只有一千元人民币左右。 2020年正值中国国家主席习近平提出的全面脱贫收官之年。李克强透露的这些信息也被认为和习近平及党中共唱反调,甚至“打脸”习近平。在2019年的总理记者会上,李克强也透露了一个涉及民生的重要数字,他说:“我们的医保虽然覆盖全民,但是水平不高。尤其是我们的农民,人均年收入不到1.5万元,遇到大病靠自己扛是很难的。”</span></p><p><br /></p><p>2020年,北京一家购物的大屏幕上播放着李克强举行的总理记者会 ( REUTERS / Tingshu Wang )</p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">这些偶然或刻意流露出的肺腑之言,还包括温家宝在卸任的最后关头,语重心长地警示:“现在改革到了攻坚阶段,没有政治体制改革的成功,经济体制改革不可能进行到底,已经取得的改革和建设成果还有可能得而复失,社会上新产生的问题也不能从根本上得到解决,'文化大革命'这样的历史悲剧还有可能重新发生。”</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">如今,温家宝的忧虑显然已经成真了,改革开放以来所取得的成果岌岌可危。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>受绝对控制的记者会何必废除?中共“二号人物”实在多余?</b></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p>2023年全国人民代表大会开幕会议上,国家主席习近平(左)和国务院总理李强(右) ( AFP / GREG BAKER )</p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">32年里,特别是在江、胡主政的二十年黄金期,从李鹏到朱镕基到温家宝,再到后来的李克强,几位总理先后利用总理记者会这一平台做了非正式但是面向公众的施政讲话,在这一舞台上展现了这些中共二号人物对经济和总体局势的领导能力,又利用这一窗口对外投射出中共的集体领导制度和人民代表大会“民主”的渐进发展。凭着有限的透明,又因着绝对的控制,每一年的总理记者会都在传递着北京想要对外传递的公众形象,以吸引外资,促进市场经济发展,更巩固了中共统治的认受性。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">这一运作成熟的机制何以要废除?原因可能在于如今的中共,不再需要有“二号人物”。中南海的权力架构中,总理名义上是仅次于党和国家最高领导人的第二号人物。过去,“江朱体制”和“胡温体制”下的国家主席和总理的权力较为平等,但习近平上任后,“习李体制”却转为“南北院之争”。迈入第二任期后,李克强更处处受掣肘,以前属于总理管辖范围的事务逐渐被转移至党中央下属的各个机构。也正因此,在李克强卸任前夕,他频频在总理记者会等媒体见面会上“说真话”,与最高领袖“唱反调”。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">新任总理李强长期在地方政府任职,并无国务院的工作经验;他的升迁之路全靠习近平的提携。而他上任一年以来,行事低调,包括打破总理出访搭乘专机的惯例,降格为搭乘包机,极力避免留下与国家主席习近平“平起平坐”的印象。在李强上任的同年,国务院公布最新的《国务院工作规则》,取代在2018年印发的版本。其中最明显的修改在第一章总则中,删除了“以马克思列宁主义、毛泽东思想、邓小平理论、'三个代表'重要思想、科学发展观⋯⋯为指导”;保留并修改为“国务院坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导,坚决维护党中央权威和集中统一领导。”</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">同时,原总则第三条中“执政为民、依法行政、实事求是、民主公开、务实清廉”的内容也被全部移除。在第三章工作原则中,新增了“重大决策、重大事项、重要情况及时向党中央请示报告”。新《规则》更完全删除了原第六章“推进政务公开”的内容。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">国务院的职能被史无前例地矮化了。因此,作为“最弱势总理”,李强和如今的国务院只是习近平路线的执行者。 《南华早报》有分析称,取消记者会甚至可能是李强总理本人的建议,因为这样一来,既能凸显习近平的领袖地位,也能显示李强对领袖的忠诚度。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>不装了,安全感最重要</b></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p>2023年,上海的一块巨型宣传广告牌( REUTERS / Aly Song )</p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">改革开放四十年来,“发展”一直是中共领导人挂在嘴边的关键词。但近十年以来,“安全”,或者“维稳”开始逐渐取代“发展”,成为中共主政者施政的侧重点。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">《日经亚洲》社论指,负责在“安全”和“发展”间做决策的人,不是李强,而是负责“国安”的中共中央办公厅主任、政治局常委第五号人物蔡奇。而蔡奇是个强硬的执行者,由他来权衡国安和经济发展孰轻孰重,他一定会把手伸向维护党国安全那一边。在“安全”的框架下,所有政治、金融活动都必须在中央掌控之下,甚至于,所有牵扯海外的活动基本上都是可疑的。这种无端的恐惧,也可能影响了中共顶层面对外国记者的意欲。全国港澳研究会顾问刘兆佳就认为,不举行总理记者会可以避免“某些势力”“唱衰”中国。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p>政治局常委蔡奇(中)于2023年出席全国人民代表大会第四次全体会议 ( REUTERS / GREG BAKER )</p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">外界观察到,当局以往的惯例正被一一打破:在取消总理记者会之前,原本应于去年秋天举行,且按中共党章规定“至少一年举行一次”的三中全会迟迟无动静。是改了会议举行时间,抑或是取消?无人知晓。与此同时,中国去年已陆续关闭外界取得中国公司资讯、法庭文件与学术期刊的管道,更修改《反间谍法》和扩大《国家秘密法》覆盖范围,加强审查外国公司驻中办员工。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">在传统的共产主义路线中,主政者将民主国家提倡的政务公开、公民知情权视为危害国家安全的风险。目前的情况就是,权力机构对政策法规的解释越来越少,重要的数据也不再公开发表。而普通人在日常传递的信息,也有可能会触犯日益收紧、措辞模糊的各种钳制言论自由和资讯流通的法律法规。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">而取消总理记者会,显示了中共顶层积重难返的维稳思维,他们不仅不愿意接受中外媒体的现场提问,甚至连事先安排好的问答也不愿意参与。唯一的政情观察窗口被迫关闭,没有舞台,就不需要影帝,总理终变成“总也没人理”。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">惋惜也罢、无奈也罢,中国公众不得不面对的是,资讯正在变成稀缺资源,大事小事都被装入黑箱。从法治回到人治再后退至一人治,北京的政治正进入可怕的集体自闭,若任何政治新闻都只能以“吃瓜”的形式出现,小道消息将逐渐替代新闻和报告的采编,直至连“谣言”都遭灭声。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">如同吴国光教授的最新评论所写,“木偶剧,影子戏,踩高跷,唱双簧,这些中共向来拿手的把戏,如今都不给你演了,就给你看一场哑巴剧!”</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">(歪脑专栏/网友推荐)</span></p>吴一舟http://www.blogger.com/profile/04733222055917760641noreply@blogger.com0Beijing, China39.904211 116.40739511.593977163821151 81.251145 68.214444836178842 151.563645tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5670268195357247439.post-47795403162914958982024-03-16T00:00:00.001-07:002024-03-16T00:00:51.676-07:00顏純鈎:坐困愁城閉門造車,新質生產力狗屁不通<div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail-xdj266r gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(5,5,5);font-size:15px"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit">(作者臉書)</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><br></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" style="" color="#000000"> 今年兩會沒什麼話題,最後除了習近平當眾訓斥趙樂際之外,只剩下新質生產力這個新詞。據報道,這是習近平去年九月就提出來的,但沒話找話,只好拿出來再炒一炒。</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" color="#000000"> 新質生產力是什麼東西?沒有人知道,百度百科強作解人,越說越糊塗。生產力與生產關係都是馬克思主義的概念,一般說法,生產力有舊的生產力有新的生產力,有落後生產力有先進生產力,一般指生產資料﹑生產方式﹑生產效率﹑生產規模等等的總和。</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" color="#000000"> <span style="font-family:inherit"><a tabindex="-1" style="font-family:inherit"></a></span> 習近平的發明,將新生產力強行多塞了一個「質」字,以顯示與別人不同,是否「發展了」馬克思主義,也只有他自己才知道了。「質」一般又有兩個含義,一是性質,二是質量,如果是指性質,「新」本身已體現了性質,多一個「質」字屬畫蛇添足;如果是指「質量」,「新」本身就包含高質量,也是多此一舉。因此「新質」這個詞不倫不類,說了等於沒說,還不如只用「新」來得簡單直接。</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" color="#000000"> 如果新生產力「性質」不新,「質量」不高,那還稱得上新生產力嗎?不如就當它是舊生產力好了。</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" color="#000000"> 發明一個新詞,要有現實依據,要有應用上的需要,要邏輯嚴密,經得起推敲,習近平以為多加一個「質」字,便能體現他的思想高人一等。其實多一個「質」字完全多餘,既沒有增加新的內涵,聽起來又別扭,在語義上又模糊,屬於阿茂整餅的拙劣表演。</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" color="#000000"> 生產力是宏觀的概念,與不同的社會發展階段相呼應。農業社會有小農生產力,工業社會有機器生產力,相對於馬拉車,內燃機是新生產力,相對於內燃機,發電機是新生產力。從發電機再往後,先後出現了原子能﹑晶體管﹑集成電路﹑電腦﹑網絡﹑人工智能等等,都是新生產力,再往後又會出現什麼新生產力,只有跟著現實走。</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" color="#000000"> 新質生產力是什麼東西,問習近平,只怕他也說不清楚。新生產力不是平白無故生長起來的,也不是人為的栽培就會有的,新生產力要在舊的生產力發展到相當成熟的階段,在原有的物質基礎上才誕生出來的,不是習近平想要有就可以有的。</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" color="#000000"> 世界文明歷史上,歷次發生的生產力大躍進,都不是在中國土地上發生的,都是在西方文明的基礎上突飛猛進起來的。那與西方的文化傳統﹑歷史積累和政治體制都有直接關係。以中國如此封閉落後的社會,如此專制壓迫的文明,要出現新生產力的機會,根本是微乎其微的事。習近平想擺脫眼前的困境,想得頭昏了,才會有「新質生產力」的大想頭。</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" color="#000000"> 據說中國的大數據監控屬世界先進水平,但大數據監控是生產力嗎?它能創造什麼財富?最近美國與日荷等國聯手,連晶片的低階生產技術與設備都對中國實施制裁,未來中國連中低階水平的晶片生產力都未必保得住,你還想要「新質生產力」,那不是異想天開?</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" color="#000000"> 中共十年前就「大煉」晶片,國家投入萬億資金全部打水漂,現在又要搞新質生產力,國家還有沒有萬億資金拿來打水漂呢?政府口袋已經空了,再拿萬億出來玩,只是更快玩死自己,而新生產力更不是靠錢堆砌起來的,沒有錢只有口號,那更是賴蛤蟆想吃天鵝肉。</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" color="#000000"> 最近王毅公開提出有名的「四問美國」,其中最後兩問是:「美國如果只讓自己保持繁榮,不允許別國正當發展,國際公理何在?美國如果執意壟斷價值鏈的高端,只讓中國停留在低端,公平競爭何在? 」王毅有如深宮怨婦那樣委屈難平,證明中共口袋裡並沒有什麼「新質生產力」錦囊妙計,否則何不直接與美國割席,專注發展自己的新質生產力,有朝一日反過來碾壓美國,豈不痛快?</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" color="#000000"> 按理,一年一度的兩會,應該為今年的國家經濟謀篇佈局,應該提出可行的發展方略,可惜兩會上習近平的中央完全一籌莫展,如何救房地產,如何擴展外貿,如何振就業,如何救地方債,一概交白卷。反而提出了「唔等使」的新質生產力概念,官員唔明,百姓唔明,習近平本人也唔明。</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" color="#000000"> 新質生產力的提出,不但不能顯示習近平的英明,反而暴露他內心之空虛淺薄,因為提不出對癥下藥的方針政策,所以挖空心思,生安白造,玩弄詞匯,愚弄人心,其結果不但不能救中共,反而令國內外有識之士與黎民百姓,看穿他的無能。</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" color="#000000"> 中國經濟正在自由落體,中共政權正搖搖欲墜,對中共來說,眼下最要緊的,是趕緊籌劃一些具體有用的措施,排除經濟上各種政治干擾,給民間個體經濟更多利便,營造寬鬆活潑的社會氛圍,正如當年改革開放初期,給全社會鬆綁,讓經濟軟著陸。可惜習近平反其道而行之,越是經濟爛下去,越是政治上收緊,眼下文革回魂,政治氣氛肅殺,內外關係幾近爆煲,在這種大環境下,他還指望天降「新質生產力」,此人是活在太虛幻境中嗎?</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" style="" color="#000000"> 「新質生產力」的提出,不意味著習近平很有創意,很有先見之明,只意味著他「冇計」了。一個無能的獨裁者,指揮一個失能的政府,面對一個失控的危局,坐困愁城,胡思亂想,越想越離地,越想越滑稽,終於落下這個狗屁不通的千古笑柄。</font></div></div></div> NCNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16079153443162336173noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5670268195357247439.post-53944539962868730632024-03-15T11:33:00.000-07:002024-03-15T11:33:12.209-07:00黃世澤:中共以「無厘頭」口號治國<p> <span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.2px;">黃世澤 RFA </span><span style="font-family: Noto Sans TC, sans-serif;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.2px;">【澤論四方】</span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.2px;">20240315</span></p><p><br /></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">自習近平上台以來,他已經不斷將一些現有名詞變成了笑話,像命運共同體便為一例。或自作一些政治口號,甚麼四個自信、大國外交、共同富裕都是典型例子。但現時習近平的口號,已經去到令人一頭霧水的程度,在人大會議期間被討論的新質生產力,恐怕長年累月研究馬克思主義理論的人,都無法理解習近平用一堆文字堆砌而來的政治口號,以及相關的理論。</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">中共一直以用口號治國,這與中國長年以來識字率低,人民教育水平低有關。中國與日本在歷史有一個很大分別,中國一直以來教育都是少數人的事,窮人要接受教育並不容易,與日本明治維新前,因為寺子屋的普及,在京都、江戶等都會區做到普及教育都不難,識字率幾乎在世界前列水平完全不同。要向大批近乎文盲,或半文盲的國民解釋共產黨的理念,爭取他們的支持,甚至煽動他們做一些極其邪惡的事,某程度上口號是必需。容易記入腦的口號,對爭取支持是十分有幫助。而恰好,在中共儘管變成一個武裝組織都好,毛澤東等主事人文采尚算不錯,甚至隨便引用古文,都可以變成有力的政治口號。像星星之火,可以燎原,其實典出《書經》。</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">只不過,當人民識字率大為提升,口號治國就變得十分粗疏,而更糟的是,歷任中共領導人為了顯出自己是有理念,文采不輸毛澤東,都會明明沒有能力提出政治理論,都裝成自己有能力去提出政治理論。江澤民年代的三個代表論,事實上除了將中共向大帳蓬政黨發展推出,對馬克思主義理論充實無實質貢獻,而胡錦濤年代的科學發展觀,亦看不出整個理論有多尊重科學。只不過,無論胡錦濤還是江澤民,都未至於惡劣到堆砌一堆無法理解的文字,以示他們何等才高八斗。</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">國家經濟政策建基於政治口號將會是災難</strong></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">而習近平文革時無法讀書的自卑,令他由踏入政壇至今,都熱衷於不斷發表古怪政治口號,以示他的才學不輸給像江澤民、胡錦濤在文革前受過高等教育,甚至像已故中國總理李克強般,在文革後於中國重點院校畢業的人,已走火入魔到一個程度,出現新質生產力一類完全無厘頭,完全無法理解的政治理論。其實科技與社會的關係,基本上用馬克思在《資本論》的講法已經涵蓋,無須另作名詞,多此一舉。</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">而最糟的是,由於中國的權力定於一尊,因此,習近平這堆邏輯混亂,常人難以理解的口號,定必成為各地政府的管治方針,大家可以想像一下,如果一個國家的經濟政策,居然建基一堆常人難解的政治口號,將會是何等的災難。毛澤東的三面紅旗,亦即是大躍進、總路線和人民公社,雖然常人都可以理解,都因為目標完全超乎當時中國的現實,最後令中國變成人間煉獄,出現了饑荒,如果中國現時本來經濟已經陷入災難之中,還要根據習近平這堆無厘頭理論去發展經濟,大家可以想像得到,這將是中蘇交惡,蘇聯撤走專家後瞎搞經濟的翻版,只不過現在由蘇聯換成了美國而已。中國人民將會面對怎樣的苦難,恐怕只有讀過沒有篡改的中國歷史的人,才會深切明白當中的問題。</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">因此,新質生產力表面聽起來,確是一個笑話來,但每一個笑話背後,往往都是悲劇,而習近平並非普通人,他現時的權力在中國無人挑戰,大家可以很容易推測得到,中國經濟將會跌入萬丈深淵之中,而這個深淵的結果,很可能要付出大量人命做代價,大家明知中國出了問題,但無法出招阻止中國跌入懸崖之中,這正是現時中國人,甚至全世界各國人的人的最大挑戰。</p><div><br /></div>吴一舟http://www.blogger.com/profile/04733222055917760641noreply@blogger.com0Beijing, China39.904211 116.40739511.593977163821151 81.251145 68.214444836178842 151.563645tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5670268195357247439.post-42880771992604495442024-03-15T11:29:00.000-07:002024-03-15T11:29:00.947-07:00严歌苓:旧金山的“他者” ——仍聊歧视<p> 严歌苓 RFA 20240315</p><p style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgbuV_ZvNj__hSUPTjtooNAlxHdMTrXCsqzyO0ULf6wYuJ0ldNSRrXiIk4K4BECVXdpTbeq4hqaYWGjItp7Fsy7UGLbyE_I5zB09Vf_mU_plGwkzmBqj7jXKiIVCyZ8UlgyMrX_22jz0Iko_XQGIGnnnCjKBcq_D3CNeFg6-MSCFq_Titha3lrW4CRel2zO" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="445" data-original-width="620" height="460" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgbuV_ZvNj__hSUPTjtooNAlxHdMTrXCsqzyO0ULf6wYuJ0ldNSRrXiIk4K4BECVXdpTbeq4hqaYWGjItp7Fsy7UGLbyE_I5zB09Vf_mU_plGwkzmBqj7jXKiIVCyZ8UlgyMrX_22jz0Iko_XQGIGnnnCjKBcq_D3CNeFg6-MSCFq_Titha3lrW4CRel2zO=w640-h460" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Merriweather Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-weight: 600;">一旦印象形成民意,是会影响高层政策制定的。正如当年美国民间爆发的排华示威游行在一定程度上催成了1882年美国第四十七届国会对“排华法案”的通过。 </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, 华文黑体, SimSun, 宋体, sans-serif; font-size: 10px; text-align: right;">X/History</span></div><br /><br /><p></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, 华文黑体, SimSun, 宋体, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><img alt="Yan Geling Avatar.png" class="image-richtext image-left" src="https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/yangeling/yan-geling-avatar.png" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; float: left; height: auto; margin: 0.5em 1em 0.5em 0px; max-width: 620px; vertical-align: middle;" title="Yan Geling Avatar.png" />在我上一篇文章《也说歧视》发表之后,一位读者给了我反馈,认为欧美社会对于中国人确实存在较严重的歧视,我觉得有必要以这篇文章来补充我对歧视的思考和认识。也以此作为我对那位读者的答复。</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> <br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, 华文黑体, SimSun, 宋体, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">1993年春天,一天中午,我和我先生莱瑞约定,在他办公室附近的餐厅一同午餐。莱瑞当时刚上任德美商会(美国西海岸)会长,办公地点在旧金山金融区,紧邻唐人街。我早到了十几分钟,便在餐馆附近漫游,无意间踏入一个地下室,挂的门牌是“旧金山华人历史陈列馆”。幽暗的馆内,一盏灯聚焦在迎面的巨幅摄影肖像上:一个晚</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">清</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">打扮的中国美人,绫罗加刺绣的盛装,神情淡定,姿态雍容。同框的还有些白种路人甲、乙、丙、丁,皆对她投以猎奇、惊艳目光。我赶紧凑近,去读解说词,看看这位在十八世纪就为中国女性赢得如此回头率的移民先驱是谁家贵妇。却只有一句话的介绍,说她是1880年代的唐人街名妓。整个陈列馆里,挂的照片多半是一位叫阿诺德. 根舍(Arnold. Genthe)的摄影作品。根舍捕捉了唐人街华人的种种珍贵瞬间,使我隔着一百多年历史,首次了解到我的移民先辈们的生存状态。我当即买下了一本根舍的摄影集,发现他在德国获得博士学位后移居美国,也许并不比他的唐人街肖像人物们移民资格更老,在他把好奇、猎奇眼睛藏在他的摄影镜头后面时,也是刚落脚这座雏形中的旧金山。根舍不是专业记者,仅仅爱好摄影,而把当年十分昂贵的胶卷用于拍摄中国人形象,可想这个远涉重洋的异类族群,激起了他怎样强烈的探索欲。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, 华文黑体, SimSun, 宋体, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">我的探索欲不亚于根舍。那位无名氏名妓让我过目难忘。不久,我请莱瑞帮我在图书馆搜寻一切有关旧金山淘金时代的历史书籍,以及一切有关早期华人移民美国的史料。幸好我有位朋友精通查阅资料,他在莱瑞搜索到的史料基础上,又在伯克利大学图书馆为我找到了十来本书。我开始阅读不久,发现旧金山后淘金时期,简直就是对华人作为族群加以歧视和排斥的历史。在读完所有书籍之后,我也没有解开根舍肖像照里的名妓身世之谜,甚至连她的姓名都没有找到,但我心里已经有了华人在1860年代末到1930年代生活图景的完整长卷。我开始写作我一生中最重要的长篇小说之一《扶桑》。我用史料里的一句记载“据统计,当时旧金山有两千多个白种男孩用他们午餐和糖果的零花钱定期造访中国妓女”。据此,我构思了“扶桑”这个形象,以一个白人男孩克里斯对年长他多岁的中国妓女扶桑的旷世之恋,描写华人移民先驱的苦难和屈辱。 克里斯对扶桑的爱,是自相矛盾的,从不懂到企图懂得,产生了执念般的爱,进而产生拯救扶桑于她晦涩难解的华人社会的执念,最终断送了扶桑对他的爱。扶桑之所以美,是因为她植根于她苦难重重的古老民族和历史。这个漂洋过海迢迢万里而来,不被其他文化所化的种群,被相似宗教、文化背景的人们视为“他者“。小说中的作者(也是小说中人物)对扶桑说:”你不知道这个城市怎样恶意看待来自遥远东方的梳长辫的男人和缠小脚的女人。……他们嘀咕:这些逃难来的异教徒。(他们管女性华人叫She Heathens, 男性华人He Heathens,用称呼牲畜、兽类的叫法,来称呼华人)。他们看着你们一望无际的人群,慢慢爬上海岸。他们意识到大事不好;这是世上最可怕的生命,这些能够忍受一切的、沉默的黄面孔将在退让和谦恭中无声息地开始他们的吞没。就像我们这批人涌出机场闸口,引得人们突然向我们忧心忡忡地注目一样,警觉和敌意在这一瞬间穿透了一百多年历史,回到我们双方的内心。”</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, 华文黑体, SimSun, 宋体, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, 华文黑体, SimSun, 宋体, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">当时白人对华人列举的种种“罪状”,包括华人吃陆地上和海洋里一切乌七八糟东西,(那时一些白人不认识虾,把它们当做海里的虫子),包括他们的运输方式——用扁担挑担子,包括他们的装束:男人留辫子,女人缠足,包括他们面部表情不可读,他们的不可交流,或者在交流中表现的沉默(因为不通英文)。“罪状”还包括,华人接受仅次于奴工报酬的低薪、接揽白人工友们罢工丢下的活计,甚至包括他们“不堪入耳”的乐器和戏曲唱腔。当然,华人世界的“堂斗”(各黑帮间的械斗)、鸦片馆、妓馆、赌场,是被列为“罪状”之首的。而不能同理的是,当时各国都在旧金山开妓馆、赌场。旧金山当时男女比例是二十多个男性对比一个女性,那样的单身汉社会使妓女当街受到绅士们脱帽致敬的礼遇。至于鸦片,那是西方殖民者们引介给中国的。以这些种族文化的差异,白人们感到他们的生活方式受到了威胁。随着旧金山城市的渐渐成熟,被淘金浪潮落在后面的宗教、法律系统渐渐跟进了这座溶各种移民文化与一炉的城市。这些以基督教文化为优越的人们,认为华人在宗教和文化上居于劣势。歧视上升到了理论高度,甚至有人类学者从头颅造型,身体结构,评定华人的劣势,以此为他们歧视的根据。而在这些歧视华人的白人精英中,有一位我童年爱戴的作家杰克.伦敦。这位善解狼意的作家,让童年的我对那只叫做巴克的狼王流下了眼泪,而对于华人,他不解人意,认为华人是低劣于高加索、雅利安白种人的种族,不可能被美国主流文化所同化。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, 华文黑体, SimSun, 宋体, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">我们的先辈移民遇到的困境和我们当代移民相类似。先辈的华人移民,绝大多数是辛勤苦做,用血汗和耐力使他们的财富像灰尘一样缓慢增长。这样的先辈,铺就了美国中央大铁路最危险的路段,并创造了日铺轨最高记录。他们被其他种族的筑路工看成铁路大亨们的“宠物”,因为他们是最靠谱的建设者。但铁路建成后,对于华人的偏见和歧视已经形成常态,因而在庆祝大典上,大亨们没有提及华工的巨大牺牲和贡献。尽管如此,华人惊人的毅力和耐力,都给美国社会留下了最优秀的建设者的印象。我同时代移民美国的同学、朋友、熟人,绝大多数也都是美国的建设者,纳税者。他们都是在获得了高等教育后,进入了美国的各种公司和机构,以勤劳节俭,吃苦耐劳,精打细算,建起自己在异国土地上第一座家园。我周围的中国留学生朋友,绝大多数都是这样成家立业,成为了美国最可靠的纳税人。如胡适先生认为,一个社会归根结底只有两个阶级,纳税人和吃税人。前者,劳动阶级,后者,剥削阶级。我相信像我朋友那样的移民阶层是中国移民的百分之九十五,他们像我一样憎恨开豪车、吃救济的寄生虫同胞,更憎恨把救济摆在地铁口贩售的刁蛮大妈太婆。因为一千个吃苦耐劳、本分守规的华人纳税人的形象,瞬间就能被一个如此吃税人的言行毁掉。默默建设的华人是新闻中的“狗咬人”,而贩售教堂慈善食物的是新闻中的“人咬狗”,给人的印象是深刻而难以抹去的。就像把新冠爆发初期,在各国抢购口罩和其他防护用品的同胞们,正是他们毁坏了我们几十年默默工作,诚实交税的华人名声。而作为一个种族,名声上有了污点,因这些污点而为那个占极小百分比的败类连坐,并作为群体印象进入人们的记忆,固化为人们的成见(或偏见),这是不是我们族群的集体悲哀,集体冤屈?后疫情期的今天,当我在柏林遭遇德国人的冷眼或白眼,亦或粗鲁言辞时,我能感到,歧视又在苏醒,又在抬头。犹太民族反抗歧视的方式是,不是哭喊叫嚷,不是提高音量的控诉,而是以书本,以艺术,以影视来代代相传他们曾遭受的歧视之屈辱,以此来警醒全人类,一场意在</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">种</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">族灭绝式的大屠杀,就起源于日常那对于民族或文化差异的看不惯。犹太民族的精神遗产的一部分,是他们悲情的历史,是他们为世界记下的的人性失控后所能犯下的怎样的罪行。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, 华文黑体, SimSun, 宋体, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">我的小说《扶桑》得奖后,传至中国大陆,有些读者感到这个故事令他们不安,不舒服,因为他们从不知道华人在海外被如此歧视和迫害。就连那些深受歧视和迫害的先辈中国移民,也没有将这样疼痛的历史作为精神遗产的一部分,遗传给他们的下一代,下下一代。我们跟犹太民族相反,似乎不能令人衣锦荣归、不能光宗耀祖的遗产,就不配做遗产被传承下去。在美国,第一个想到要为中国人讨回公道,推翻“排华法案”的人不是中国人,而是生长在中国、爱中国如祖国的作家赛珍珠。就连当时代表中国到美国国会演讲的第一夫人宋美龄,在赛珍珠提出让她趁时机提出复议“法案”,都</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">被</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">宋美龄婉拒。不在乎中国人人权的,似乎总是中国人自己。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, 华文黑体, SimSun, 宋体, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">一旦印象形成民意,是会影</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">响</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">高层政策制定的。正如当年美国民间爆发的排华示威游行在一定程度上催成了1882年美国第四十七届国会对“排华法案”的通过,以及总统切斯特. 艾伦.阿瑟对此法案的签署。这项法案在1902年取消了“排华”年限,延至无期。直到二次大战后期,因中美为盟国关系才被美国国会重新审议。当年唐人街的少数不良分子,抹杀了中央大铁路华工们用生命和血汗换来的傲人贡献,使华人在美国的生存境遇进入了六十多年的极致困境。相反,法案的执行是靠着从顶层到末端的一个个机构,靠着一层层官员和执行者,而每个执行者都难免在执行中掺入自己人性局限带来的黑暗、不公和恶意,使法案一级级夸张、变形。“排华法案”那一行行刻板冷漠的文字,到达海关时,就已经是一个个穷凶极恶、满嘴秽语,对中国人举着大棒的糙汉,以及和他手里牵着的龇牙咧嘴的狼狗。千万不要忘记,我们的人性会让任何一种无论多公道的法案走样走得连法案制定者都不敢相认,更何况像1882年实施的本就是基于偏见的“排华法案”。我们也许本着”哪里有面包,哪里就是祖国”——爱尔兰人的信念,或者哪里有信仰自由哪里就是祖国——五月花号轮船上乘客们的信念,总之我们选择迁徙,移居到另一片国土,我们不能本着“反正也不是我祖国”的想法,对它只索取收获,不辛劳耕耘,否则,我们将永远被那片国土上爱她如故土的人们充满疑虑地侧目而视,被永远视为“他者”。</span></p>吴一舟http://www.blogger.com/profile/04733222055917760641noreply@blogger.com0San Francisco, CA, USA37.7749295 -122.41941559.4646956638211535 -157.5756655 66.085163336178852 -87.2631655tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5670268195357247439.post-72719192747928005082024-03-15T11:15:00.000-07:002024-03-15T15:12:01.242-07:00魏京生:什么样的民主更适合中国(三)<div dir="ltr">魏京生 RFA 20240315<div><br></div><div><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:Arial,Tahoma,Helvetica,FreeSans,sans-serif"> 上接 </span><a href="https://2newcenturynet.blogspot.com/2024/02/blog-post_761.html" style="color:rgb(51,170,255);font-family:Arial,Tahoma,Helvetica,FreeSans,sans-serif">魏京生:什么样的民主更适合中国(一)</a></div><div><a href="https://2newcenturynet.blogspot.com/2024/03/blog-post_54.html">魏京生:什么样的民主更适合中国(二)</a><br><div><br></div><div><p style="box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 10px;font-size:18px;letter-spacing:0.2px;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,STHeiti,华文黑体,SimSun,宋体,sans-serif">中国传统文化很讲究平等。不认字的老太太都能和你争论为什么不平等。他们接受的是戏曲和民间艺术的教化。现在很多人崇拜西方的平等观,殊不知西方现代法学的鼻祖孟德斯鸠,正是用中国古代法律面前人人平等的理论和实践,摧毁了欧洲封建等级制的法律体系。</p><p style="box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 10px;font-size:18px;letter-spacing:0.2px;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,STHeiti,华文黑体,SimSun,宋体,sans-serif">当中国共产党从西方引进了共产主义之后,平等就消失不见了,假装忘记了。中共还引进了苏维埃农奴制,占人口大多数的农民被降低为最下等的农村户口。他们不但不享受任何福利,而且受到各种各样的歧视。</p><p style="box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 10px;font-size:18px;letter-spacing:0.2px;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,STHeiti,华文黑体,SimSun,宋体,sans-serif">就算进城打工,也是最受剥削的农民工,和城市工人职员们明显不是一个阶级。这种下等阶级受歧视的人口,占中国人口的三分之二,也就是绝大多数,是货真价实的农奴制贱民。</p><p style="box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 10px;font-size:18px;letter-spacing:0.2px;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,STHeiti,华文黑体,SimSun,宋体,sans-serif">城里人对这些没感觉吗?没感觉。当人们自认为高人一等的时候,他们会很享受这种不平等。当文革时他们被下放到农村的时候,他们感到委屈和受苦了。可是那进城打工还被歧视和剥削的农民工们,他们是什么感觉呢?对他们来说,平等只存在于古代的戏曲之中。</p><p style="box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 10px;font-size:18px;letter-spacing:0.2px;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,STHeiti,华文黑体,SimSun,宋体,sans-serif">可是对统治者们来说,把人民分而治之是一种手段。挑拨阶级和民族之间的歧视和斗争,有利于转移人们怨恨的对象,减轻各级土皇帝们承受的社会压力。并且用一部分人来压制另一部分人,也是维稳措施的基础。</p><p style="box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 10px;font-size:18px;letter-spacing:0.2px;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,STHeiti,华文黑体,SimSun,宋体,sans-serif">当资本家的财产获得退赔的时候,中国共产党似乎承认了财产权。可是农民的土地财产呢?仅仅是承包,财产权还在中国共产党的基层组织手里。但是中国人几千年的市场经济,私有财产观念仍然很强,没有被中共的邪教所消灭。于是出外打工的农民宁可将土地荒废了,也不能无偿交给别人耕种,否则可能会失去他们仅有的财产。</p><p style="box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 10px;font-size:18px;letter-spacing:0.2px;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,STHeiti,华文黑体,SimSun,宋体,sans-serif">这种土地政策的后果是什么呢?就是荒废土地导致粮食减产,无法合理合法兼并土地,阻止了大规模现代化生产的推广,粮食产量上不去。虽然有很多的农业科技进步,仍然无法养活人民。靠习近平的今天退耕还林,明天退林还耕的拉抽屉式的瞎指挥,解决了问题吗?</p><p style="box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 10px;font-size:18px;letter-spacing:0.2px;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,STHeiti,华文黑体,SimSun,宋体,sans-serif">不要说全球农业的经验,就是中国自己自古以来的经验,土地私有化是解决农业问题的基础。只有用心负责的农民拥有了这块土地,土地的耕种才能达到最好的效果。如果在领主的遥控下集体耕作也有效,封建制也就不会被取代了。</p><p style="box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 10px;font-size:18px;letter-spacing:0.2px;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,STHeiti,华文黑体,SimSun,宋体,sans-serif">所以农民的私有土地权利,不仅仅是个财产问题。对全社会来说是农业效率的问题,是解决吃饭问题的不二法门。特别是现代化大农业与合作农业,权属不清造成的混乱,是各种低效率和不稳定纠纷的原因。</p><p style="box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 10px;font-size:18px;letter-spacing:0.2px;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,STHeiti,华文黑体,SimSun,宋体,sans-serif">所以对于占人口大多数的中国人来说,人权确实是个基本问题。不仅仅是言论等等自由的问题,财产也是关系到社会生存的大问题。财产权要得到保障,必须依靠法律和执法公平。而法律和执法机构,要依靠政治的支持。靠皇帝把国家当作自己的财产,是一种经常不可靠的保障。只有依靠人民选择的自己的政府,才有动力为了选民的利益保障法治的公平和公正。</p><p style="box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 10px;font-size:18px;letter-spacing:0.2px;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,STHeiti,华文黑体,SimSun,宋体,sans-serif">特别是在共产党的无法无天维持了七十多年的局面下,恢复法制及保障人民的基本权利,只能依靠推倒重来,建立由人民选择的民主政治,才能改变专制体制无法无天的惯性,给全国人民一个满意的结果。否则每天成千上万人上访,也改变不了无法无天专制的本质。</p></div></div></div> NCNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16079153443162336173noreply@blogger.com1China35.86166 104.1953977.5514261638211551 69.039147 64.171893836178839 139.351647tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5670268195357247439.post-65187340795832740572024-03-15T10:00:00.001-07:002024-03-15T15:32:25.504-07:00川普任内如何“引导”中国舆论<p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">重磅!据前美国官员称,唐纳德·川普总统上任两年后,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">授权CIA中央情报局在中国社交媒体上发起秘密行动,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">用虚假身份传播真实中G内部情报,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">试图将中国的舆论转向反对政府 -- 路透社</span></span></p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">1. 川普政府大胆授权中情局发起秘密战争,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">通过中国社交媒体破坏其政府声誉,挑战习政权的合法性。</span></span><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2. 从2019年开始,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">中情局运营小组采用假身份在网络上散布反对中国政府的信息,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">此行动直指北京心脏。</span></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">3. 通过揭露共殘黨高层海外藏金以及“一带一路”项目的腐败,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">中情局打击了中国的全球形象和信誉。</span></span><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">4. 此秘密行动以事实为基础,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">故意在中国引发政府高层的恐慌和对内部矛盾的追查,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">有效消耗其政治资源。</span></span><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">5. 面对美国的秘密战略,中国外交部咄咄逼人,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">指责美国操纵舆论,使用信息作为战场。</span></span><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">6. </span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">川普政府的此举是对中国政府多年来全球扩张野心和秘密行动的直接</span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">反击。</span></span><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">7. 川普时代,美国对中国采取了前所未有的硬策略,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">重燃冷战时期对抗的火焰。</span></span><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">8. </span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">对于这场秘密影响力战争的效果和拜登政府是否持续此计划的细节,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">目前仍然成谜。</span></span><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">9. 川普公开表态,如果2024年再次入主白宫,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">他会对中国采取更加强硬的立场。</span></span><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">10. 中情局的行动不仅限于中国国内,还针对东南亚、</span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">非洲和南太平洋等全球战略要地,试图削弱中国的影响力。</span><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">11. 这标志着美中全球影响力争夺战中,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">美国采取了更加主动和激进的姿态。</span><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">12. 鉴于中国经济和贸易报复的实力,这一行动具有高风险,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">可能加剧两国间的紧张关系。</span></span><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">13. </span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">这一策略是在美国情报界对中国全球渗透行动多年的警告之后采取的</span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">,显示了美国的战略调整。</span></span><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">14. 尽管中国外交部宣称不干预他国内政,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">川普政府的行动揭露了北京在全球范围内的干预和影响力扩张。</span></span><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">15. 川普任内加强了中情局的网络攻击能力,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">作为对中国和俄罗斯网络威胁的直接回应。</span></span><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">16. 冷战期间,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">中情局通过秘密宣传破坏苏联信誉的历史再次重现,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">此次针对的是北京。</span></span><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">17. 中情局的秘密宣传可能被中国利用,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">加强其对西方颠覆活动的长期指控,损害美国的全球形象。</span></span><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">18. 这些秘密行动不仅攻击中国政府,也可能对抗议者、</span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">反对团体和独立记者构成威胁,他们可能被错误地标为美国的棋子。</span></span><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">19. 此行动展现了美国对抗中国野心的决心,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">通过秘密手段在全球范围内挑战其影响力。</span></span><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">20. 川普政府对中国的这一秘密进攻,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">反映了美国对中国政府日益增长的敌对态度,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">为未来的国际关系设定了更加紧张的基调。</span><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">—— 熱點新聞/网友推荐</span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>吴一舟http://www.blogger.com/profile/04733222055917760641noreply@blogger.com01600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20500, USA38.8976763 -77.036529810.587442463821155 -112.1927798 67.207910136178839 -41.8802798tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5670268195357247439.post-68168960814842281012024-03-15T10:00:00.000-07:002024-03-15T15:18:06.572-07:00胡平:時間站在誰那邊──台海危機的現狀與展望<p> 胡平 上報 20240314</p><p><br /></p><h2 style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"><strong>(1)賴清德勝選,兩岸關係會否生變?</strong></h2><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;">臺灣總統大選落幕,民進黨賴清德獲勝。眼下各方最關心的問題是:賴清德接任臺灣總統,兩岸關係將會發生哪些改變?</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;">正像我先前講過的,賴清德當選總統,兩岸關係不會發生重大改變,中共不會對臺灣動武。因為賴清德明確表示在兩岸問題上他將維持現狀,不會搞台獨。順便說明,什麼是中共定義的台獨?很簡單,那就是修改中華民國憲法,把「大陸地區屬於中華民國」這句話拿掉。但既然賴清德宣稱他將遵循中華民國憲法,不會修憲,因此中共就不會對臺灣動武。</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;">但是小的改變是會有的。因為賴清德本來就比蔡英文更綠。在勝選感言中,賴清德不把臺灣叫作中華民國而叫作「中華民國臺灣」,把大陸稱為「中國」,這在中共看來都暗含著很強的台獨色彩。所以大陸必定會做出一系列動作向賴清德施加壓力。事實上,因為中共也預估賴清德很可能勝選,因此早在去年12月就開始施壓, 宣佈中止《海峽兩岸經濟合作框架協定》(ECFA) 下12個類別產品的關稅減讓措施;在投票前兩天,中共當局又宣佈準備進一步中止早期收穫農漁、機械、汽車零配件、紡織等產品關稅減讓措施。就在臺灣大選揭 曉的第二天,南太平洋島國諾魯就宣佈同臺灣斷交,使得臺灣僅有的12個邦交國又少了一個。凡此種種,都表明中共向賴清德施加壓力。類似的動作,中共還可能繼續採取。</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;">去年11月,美國《外交事務》(Foreign Affairs)雜誌刊出美國學者葛來儀(Bonnie Glaser)、白潔曦(Jessica Chen Weiss)和柯慶生(Thomas Christensen)的文章。文章說,要遏阻中共在台海動武,美國單靠軍事威脅是不夠的,美國必須在做出懲罰威脅的同時,再提供北京「可信的再保證」 (credible reassurances),而為了讓這種「再保證」有效發揮作用,他們建議民進黨總統候選人賴清德一旦勝選,應考慮凍結台獨黨綱。假如賴清德凍結了台獨黨綱,中共方面也會做出一些回應。例如,不再繼續挖走臺灣的邦交國,重新開放大陸的自由行和團客訪台,恢復《海峽兩岸經濟合作框架協定》(ECFA)的若干措施,等等。但是因為賴清德很可能會像蔡英文一樣,拒絕承認九二共識,拒絕直接說出大陸地區與臺灣地區同屬中華民國這句話,也就是兩岸一中,海協會與臺灣海基會的互動仍然不會恢復。</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;">前面說到,賴清德不會修改憲法,因此中共不會對台動武。但這決不是說,只要臺灣不獨,大陸就一定不武。中共國家安全部在1月16日發文,提到中共在2005年通過的《反分裂國家法》。《反分裂國家法》明確規定了對台動武的3種情形:1、「台獨」分裂勢力以任何名義、任何方式造成臺灣從中國分裂出去的事實;2、 導致臺灣從中國分裂出去的重大事變;3、和平統一的可能性完全喪失。注意這第3種情形,這就是說,哪怕台獨勢力沒有以任何名義、任何方式造成臺灣從中國分裂出去的事實,哪怕沒有發生任何導致臺灣從中國分裂出去的重大事變,只要中共當局自己主觀認定和平統一的可能性完全喪失,它就可以對臺灣動用武力。</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;">按照這一條,既然多次民調都表明臺灣民眾不分藍綠都拒絕中共提出的「一國兩制、和平統一」方案,尤其是多次民調都顯示大部分臺灣人只認同自己是臺灣人,不認同自己是中國人,那麼在中共看來,這就可以認作和平統一的可能性已經完全喪失,因此已經可以對臺灣動武了。哪怕你臺灣不修改憲法,它也可以動武了。《反分裂法》還規定,國務院、中央軍事委員會可以在必要時先採取行動,隨後再向全國人民代表大會常務委員會通報。這就是說,《反分裂法》授權共軍可以先斬後奏。這就是說,哪怕明天中共就對台動武,它也可以振振有詞地宣稱師出有名。</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;">之所以在眼下,中共還不打算對台動武,說穿了就一條:怕美軍介入。關於這個問題,下面還要談。</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><h2 style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"><strong>(2)烏克蘭與臺灣</strong></h2><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;">俄國發動侵烏之戰,使人們聯想到臺灣。中共打臺灣,與俄國打烏克蘭有一些可比性,但也有不可比性,俄國打烏克蘭,可以有好幾種不同的戰略目標:目標A——最好是把澤連斯基政府打倒,扶植一個親俄的政府,然後再搞一次公投,烏克蘭宣佈回歸俄羅斯,這對它是最好不過的。達不到這一目標,退而求其次,目標B——扶植一個親俄政府。如果這點還是做不到,那就是目標C——讓烏克蘭一分為二,以第聶伯河為界,佔領整個烏克蘭的東部。如果這個目標也做不到,那就是目標D——烏東地區占點算點,只要比前年2月24號開戰之前多占了一些地方,普京就可以宣佈,他的特殊軍事行動取得了成功。</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;">俄烏戰爭打了兩年多,現在看來,俄國的目標A、目標B、目標C都達不到了。烏克蘭要收復失地,把俄軍趕回到前年2月24日之前也很不容易。雙方很難達成和平協定。</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;">中共打臺灣和俄國打烏克蘭不一樣。中共只能有一個戰略目標,那就是統一,如果達不到統一就輸了,無論它對臺灣造成多少損失,對中共而言,達不到統一就是輸了。中共知道這一點,所以它不敢輕啟戰端。</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;">烏克蘭儘管是得到國際社會公認的一個主權國家,但是出於種種原因,當俄國侵犯烏克蘭時,沒有一個國家直接出兵相助,這就是俄羅斯敢入侵烏克蘭的原因。北約近在咫尺,一線之隔。如果北約願意出兵相助,俄羅斯是不敢打的。臺灣雖然沒有得到國際社會的廣泛承認,但是美國有個《臺灣關係法》。如果中共武力犯台,美國很可能出兵相助,所以在現階段,中共不會去武統臺灣。</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><h2 style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"><strong>(3)中共統一臺灣的「北平模式」</strong></h2><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;">近來,中國大陸、臺灣和美國三方軍機軍艦頻頻現身台海。這讓很多人擔心,會不會擦槍走火引爆戰爭。</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;">我以為擦槍走火引爆戰爭的可能性很小。中共國際關係專家、清華大學國際關係研究院院長閻學通講過:「目前在南海和台海地區,都不會發生故意的擦槍走火,因為美國、中國大陸、臺灣地區三方對軍事行動的控制都非常嚴格。所以說,首先,在這些地區發生擦槍走火的可能性非常小;其次,即便發生擦槍走火,有關各方也一定能及時地把它控制住,不讓它發展成為戰爭。」</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;">近期內,中共會不會武統臺灣?中共鷹派人物、《超限戰》一書作者、解放軍少將喬良說:臺灣目前形勢,文統無望,只能武統,但不可輕率急進,因為解決臺灣問題的關鍵在於先解決中美實力對比。中美未分高下之前,臺灣問題不可能徹底解決。只要不斷提高和增強中國克服外部約束的實力,一旦美國沒法介入,收復臺灣如探囊取物。</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;">中共國台辦原副主任王在希曾對媒體說,在和統和武統之間還有第三條道路可供選擇,那就是採用圍而不打的的「北平模式」,僅攻打外島,以戰迫和,以武促統,逼臺北就範。</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;">中共賭的就是,在經過一段時日後,中國的軍力有進一步增長,雖然不是在全球、但只要在台海局部區域取得優勢,當它擺出武統臺灣的架勢,美國就會考慮,犯不犯得上為那麼遙遠的一個臺灣去跟中國直接刀兵相見。一旦美國不肯直接出兵,那麼面對中共大軍壓境,兵臨城下,臺灣也許就只有被「一國兩制」,被「和平統一」了。</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><h2 style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"><strong>(4)美國會出兵相助嗎?</strong></h2><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;">無論是出於對普世價值的分享,還是出於對第一島鏈的戰略考量,美國都在堅守《臺灣關係法》護衛臺灣的承諾。這是40多年來美國歷屆政府一直堅持的立場。但是《臺灣關係法》具有模糊性。它沒有明確說一旦中共對台動武,美國是會出兵還是只賣武器。這幾年,拜登總統幾次回答記者提問都明確回答,美國願意為保護臺灣而介入軍事行動。但這只是拜登總統的立場,以後的美國總統會不會也堅持這種立場呢?如果幾年後國際形勢有變,美中兩國的實力對比有變,美國政府是否還會堅持這種強硬立場呢?</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;">2021年,美國智庫「芝加哥全球事務委員會」做過一次民調。那次民調顯示,如果中國武力犯台,過半數美國人贊成派兵保護。2022年6-7月,美國「德國馬歇爾基金會與「德國貝塔斯曼基金會」對14個國家的民調顯示,如果中國武力犯台,多數受訪者比較支持以外交舉措與經濟制裁應對,同意對臺灣輸送武器和出兵援助的不到5%;就連最支持臺灣的美國,同意對臺灣輸送武器和出兵援助的也不到10%。同年8月,佩洛西訪問臺灣,中共在台海進行大規模軍演。這兩件事強化了國際社會對臺灣的關注,強化了民主國家的民眾、尤其是美國民眾對臺灣的支持度。如果再做一次民調,結果很可能會和上一次不一樣。</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;">我認為,如果中共武力犯台,民主國家的民眾大多數會支持以外交舉措和經濟制裁應對,同意輸送武器會少些,同意出兵的更少。臺灣是海島,有海峽天塹,易守難攻。但也由於臺灣是海島,別的國家要運送物資和武器就更難,接收難民也更難。最嚴重的問題是,目前,全世界絕大多數國家以及聯合國等國際組織都承認只有一個中國,臺灣是中國的一部分。這就意味著,如果中共對台動武,國際社會都會因為那是中國內政,因此很難給臺灣提供有實質性意義的幫助。</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;">不錯,已故日本前首相安倍晉三講過:臺灣有事就是日本有事。但這話是安倍下臺後講的,要是在臺上就不好這麼講。安倍講了「臺灣有事就是日本有事」後,中共外交部提出抗議,日本政府駁回中方的抗議,理由就是「因為安倍晉三已經不再是政府官員了」。既然現在日台雙方連正式邦交都沒有,日本怎麼可能在中共武力犯台時出兵相助呢?</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><h2 style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"><strong>(5)警惕臺灣淪為犧牲品</strong></h2><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;">在美國,一直有不同的聲音。哈佛大學教授、「修昔底德陷阱」一說的提出者格雷厄姆·艾利森,曾在《外交事務》上發表文章,題目是「美國要學會尊重其他大國的勢力範圍」。文中講到,1945年2月4日雅爾達會議期間,後來被稱為「遏制戰略之父」的喬治‧肯南給他的同事、時任羅斯福總統的俄文翻譯兼蘇聯問題首席顧問的查理斯‧博倫發去一封緊急密信。信中說,蘇聯會盡力維持對歐洲的大範圍控制,問題是美國應採取何種對策。肯南問道:「我們為什麼不可以體面而確定地和它妥協——坦誠地將歐洲劃分成美蘇各自的勢力範圍——確保我們不進入俄羅斯的勢力範圍,也不讓俄羅斯闖入我們的地盤?」</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;">艾利森寫到,肯南這一主張,成為後來數十年美國戰略的支柱,其基本前提是對勢力範圍的接受,即承認某些地區將由蘇聯主導。在隨後40年裡,數任美國總統都經歷了危機,因為美國的信條宣稱某些權利是普世性的,所以當受蘇聯主導的國家內部尋求行使這些權利的自由鬥士遭到鎮壓時,美國理當考慮派遣軍隊的選項。但歷任美國總統都毫無例外地選擇旁觀而不是干預:比如艾森豪面對1956年10月匈牙利事件,詹森面對1968年「布拉格之春」,等等。</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;">可以想見,如果美國政府接受艾利森的主張,像美蘇冷戰期間接受彼此勢力範圍那樣,接受美國與中國各自的勢力範圍,臺灣很可能是首當其衝的犧牲品。</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><h2 style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"><strong>(6)「一中兩府」模式是可行之道</strong></h2><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;">由於臺灣與大陸大小懸殊,臺灣的安全需要國際社會的維護。然而,由於臺灣缺少國際承認,因此臺灣的安全很難獲得國際社會的維護。迄今為止,臺灣得到的唯一的外部支持就只有美國。從長遠看,臺灣還需要更多的外部支援。近些年來,臺灣在國際社會的能見度有顯著提升。但是,臺灣的國際地位並沒有得到實質性的提升。</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;">去年,美國眾議院以口頭表決方式無異議通過一部旨在協助臺灣抵禦中國外交孤立的法案,厘清聯合國1971年通過的2758號決議只承認中華人民共和國的代表是中國在聯合國唯一的合法代表,並未涉及臺灣在聯合國的代表權,也沒有對中華人民共和國與臺灣的關係採取立場,或包含任何涉及臺灣主權的聲明。</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;">這部法案似乎給別的國家承認臺灣提供了一種可行的方式。但問題是,這部法案只在眾議院得到通過,參議院還沒有通過。臺灣的一些邦交國本來想借助於這部法案提出的對聯合國2758號決議的重新解讀,促成臺灣進入聯合國。但是在不久前的聯合國會議上,就連這些親臺灣的國家也沒有把它作為正式議案向大會提出。別的國家逡巡不前也很好理解:如果以這種方式承認臺灣是切實可行的,美國政府幹嘛不帶頭這麼做呢?英國外交大臣也發表講話,贊同對聯合國2758號決議的新解讀,但是英國自己也沒有以這種方式承認臺灣。可見這種方式並不能説明臺灣擺脫在國際上的孤立困境。</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;">在我看來,要使臺灣擺脫被孤立的困境,最簡單、也最可行的辦法就是,美國在保持和中華人民共和國正式邦交的同時,又和中華民國建交。這就是「一個中國,兩個政府」模式,也就是兩韓模式。既然中共自己在宣示它的「一個中國」原則時,從2000年起,早就不再反對「一個中國,兩個政府」了,早就不再反對以兩韓模式處理兩岸關係了,因此它不可能對此做出什麼激烈的反應。有關美台建交的法理依據與現實可行性,我在「美台建交,此其時也」一文裡有詳細論述。這裡就不再重複了。</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><h2 style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"><strong>(7)時間站在哪一邊?</strong></h2><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;">2005年4月,我曾經寫過一篇文章「時間站在哪一邊」。文章最後一段寫到:「一切就歸結到時間上。時間會站在誰一邊?不少人會說,時間會站在臺灣一邊。因為臺灣站在歷史正確的一邊。不過這是對較長的未來而言。在較短的未來也有可能出現相反的情況。關鍵是大陸。隨著時間的推移,大陸是會變得自由民主呢,還是會變得十分強大但依然專制?結論:必須大力催化大陸自由民主。大陸能否及時地走上自由民主之路,關係到大陸人民的切身利益,關係到世界的和平與穩定,也關係到臺灣自由民主的生死存亡。」</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;">19年過去了。19年來,大陸沒有變得自由民主,而是變得更強大而且更專制。今天的臺灣比19年前更不安全。固然在3、5年內,臺灣還是安全的;但5年、10年以後呢?照目前這種趨勢下去,未來的專制中國有可能變得更強大,不但臺灣很可能會淪陷,整個世界的形勢都不堪設想。因此,我們必須從根本上扭轉這種趨勢,我們必須促進中國大陸的改變,向著自由民主的改變。</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"> </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Noto Serif TC", sans-serif, arial, 微軟正黑體修正, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; margin: 0px; text-align: justify; text-size-adjust: none;"><strong>※作者為《北京之春》雜誌榮譽主編</strong></p>吴一舟http://www.blogger.com/profile/04733222055917760641noreply@blogger.com0Taiwan23.69781 120.960515-4.612423836178845 85.804265 52.008043836178842 156.116765tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5670268195357247439.post-7677456871922953852024-03-15T09:30:00.000-07:002024-03-15T15:11:12.137-07:00從蘇格蘭到全球好萊塢:《可憐的東西》的原著小說與電<p> <span class="author-post byline" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #888888; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; margin: 6px 0px 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><span class="author vcard" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><a class="author-url url fn n" href="https://voicettank.org/author/mizou/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; text-transform: capitalize; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s;">迷走</a> / <b>思想坦克</b> </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; text-align: center;"></span><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #888888; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-03-15T17:20:35+08:00" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">2024 年 3 月 15 日</time></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #888888; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-03-15T17:20:35+08:00" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><br /></time></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">電影《可憐的東西》(Poor Things)上映以來,不論在英語世界或台灣都引起熱烈的報導和評論,且大多數的評價十分正面。除了讓艾瑪.史東(Emma Stone)二度贏得奧斯卡最佳女主角獎的精采演出,強烈的視覺風格,包括大膽華麗的服裝設計、獨樹一格的佈景、不尋常的鏡頭運用(如超廣角魚眼鏡頭的使用),都為人所津津樂道。</span></p><figure class="wp-block-image size-full" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; margin: 0px 0px 1em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img class="wp-image-25223" decoding="async" height="469" sizes="(max-width: 885px) 100vw, 885px" src="https://voicettank.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/202403103.png" srcset="https://voicettank.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/202403103.png 885w, https://voicettank.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/202403103-300x219.png 300w, https://voicettank.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/202403103-768x561.png 768w, https://voicettank.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/202403103-585x428.png 585w" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: none; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom;" width="640" /></span><figcaption class="wp-element-caption" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #555555; margin: 0.5em 0px 1em; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: center;">圖片來源:翻攝自IMDb</figcaption><figcaption class="wp-element-caption" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #555555; margin: 0.5em 0px 1em; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></figcaption></figure><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #313131;">《可憐的東西》導演尤格.藍西默(Yorgos Lanthimos)過去的作品如《單身動物園》(The Lobster, 2015)、《聖鹿之死》(The Killing of a Sacred Deer, 2017),皆以其鮮明的風格和匪夷所思的情節著稱,然而,《可憐的東西》充滿奇特想像的情節其實主要來自</span><a href="https://www.amazon.com/-/zh_TW/dp/B0CLDY3VJ6/ref=sr_1_1?crid=3L1FHJ62LG9WN&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.dEZv6WXoyUdXG1cyvLYcGaHziLMVLQ8IOhTxiWPxX2VjyJ39ysvj2u5Vk3paz0AvPV_j0MD9QWk1yRyHE1PgOoof3UESl9lrRXu7P9zOa_9RdBc4gG2EhZrC7jX9EtG6ee7Ir1BqUoHs_dOkBK0kerJlYtTSZpAMlZehaZpULill6gdkSNokuXebr0x1olMz08dXEBD-5m56ZYRlqoqdWwH0shDE_q9V9yvcM9GYjRLePGDZh4JdCQ6XOdY7MZQWE9v3AvVNhoHeMwyi2p6weNavbjrZvL0KFjBJeM5uOQ0.0qO5vokFwQtvFKA7H4r1ib8Cv9dYp7h-QkNJ5oqRGZo&dib_tag=se&keywords=Alasdair+Gray&qid=1710495731&sprefix=alasdair+gray%2Caps%2C247&sr=8-1" style="box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s;"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">亞勒斯泰.格雷(Alasdair Gray, 1934-2019)的原著小說</span></a><span style="color: #313131;">。這點卻少有人論及。</span></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">格雷常被視為是二十世紀後期蘇格蘭藝文復興的旗手,受到《猜火車》(Trainspotting)作者威爾許(Irvine Welsh)等蘇格蘭後輩作家所推崇,他原本的訓練是美術,是蘇格蘭重要的當代畫家,也從事小說、詩、戲劇(包括電視劇和廣播劇)的創作。他文學作品的插圖都親自繪製,帶有科幻色彩的《可憐的東西》(1992)亦是如是。這部高度視覺化的小說是電影改編的好題材,雖然看過原著的人物畫像之後,再看電影的話會有點違和感。外貌差異還是其次,電影對原著還有些重要更動。雖說改編並不見得要忠於原著,影片本身就是獨立的作品,青出於藍或各擅勝場的例子比比皆是。但是就本片來說,原著和電影的差異卻凸顯出一些值得探究的課題。</span></p><h2 class="wp-block-heading" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #005757; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; font-weight: var(--pchead-wei); line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px 0px 17px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">電影化繁為簡</span></strong></h2><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">格雷的小說其實有好幾個層次。小說序言宣稱,格雷和從事地方文史工作的好友唐納利撿獲一本二十世紀初出版的回憶錄,作者正是貝拉的先生麥康朵斯(McCandless)。格雷將這本「回憶錄」編輯出版,然而,唐納利(應是虛構人物)卻高度質疑這部回憶錄的真實性,乃至貝拉是否真有其人。更重要的是原著還附上貝拉寫給後代子孫的信,駁斥先生的回憶錄,宣稱先生晚年沉迷小說創作,回憶錄純是幻想的產物。此外,信中也對自己生平提出沒有任何驚世駭俗元素的另一版本說法。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">格雷編輯此書所做註解,引用各種文獻與歷史圖片說明回憶錄中的典故,尤其是貝拉第一任丈夫布雷辛頓將軍(General Blessington)的生平事蹟。當然,這些文獻不少都是格雷虛構,附上的「十九世紀圖片」也是他所畫。小說宣稱主要人物的畫像,都是麥康朵斯委託著名蘇格蘭版畫家施全吉(William Strange, 1859-1921)繪製,但其實它們都是葛雷模仿史全吉風格的作品。格雷的小說有時會被形容為「後現代」,先不論這樣的歸類是否允當,但凡讀過上世紀末後現代小說的讀者,對於這種虛構中的虛構,以及帶有後設趣味的多重敘事手法,應該會感到熟悉。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">電影改編則化繁為簡,除了刪掉小說中一些人物,如用以嘲諷基督教基本教義派之偽善,以及西方文明教化使命之愚蠢的美國傳教士虎克醫師(Dr. Hooker),也簡化了故事結構,只改編「回憶錄」的部分。相較於小說的繁複結構,影片成為兩小時左右的流暢敘事。這樣做當然是考量到大多數電影觀眾的觀影習慣。</span></p><h2 class="wp-block-heading" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #005757; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; font-weight: var(--pchead-wei); line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px 0px 17px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">地點就有故事</span></strong></h2><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">電影和小說的場景地點也有差別。原著一些重要的情節發生在敖德薩。現在這個烏克蘭港市正處於戰火,當然不可能到那裡拍攝,更何況原著還稱之為「俄國城市」。雖然在故事背景的十九世紀末,多數英國人確實會認為敖德薩是個沙俄帝國的城市;現在這樣演可就太政治不正確了。於是在電影中就由原著並未提到的里斯本取而代之。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">更重要的更動是創造貝拉的怪醫葛德溫.巴克斯特(Godwin Baxter)成長與行醫的地點,由格拉斯哥(Glasgow)改為倫敦。有則報導提到藍西默在格雷過世前曾找他商談改編,也有評論者表示遺憾格雷生前未能看到他的作品成功搬上大銀幕。格雷是格拉斯哥人,小說和畫作大多以蘇格蘭為背景,政治上支持蘇格蘭獨立,壁畫作品更幾乎都是為故鄉的公共建築物而創作。格拉斯哥在十九世紀是大英帝國造船和煉鋼業的重鎮,也是科學研究和醫學教育的重要中心,號稱「帝國亞都」(the Second City of Empire)。《可憐的東西》出版時就,因其對十九世紀格拉斯哥的地景、建築與掌故的細緻描寫而獲得好評。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">格雷這本小說意在彰顯格拉斯哥的歷史人文榮光,我懷疑他若活著,看到電影將故事背景從心愛的故鄉改為倫敦,反應可能不是欣慰,而是大怒。電影更動主要場景發生的地點,當然是考量到美國乃至全球的觀眾都知道倫敦,但不熟悉格拉斯哥這個在二十世紀走向工業沒落的城市。這種安排,就像好萊塢絕大多數以法國為背景的電影會將地點設定在巴黎一樣。</span></p><h2 class="wp-block-heading" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #005757; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; font-weight: var(--pchead-wei); line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px 0px 17px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">好萊塢人物類型</span></strong></h2><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">電影除了刪除小說人物外,出現的角色也有更動。貝拉在郵輪上遇見出身上流的亞斯特利(Harry Astley),後者一直試圖說服說服貝拉放棄天真的理想,還帶貝拉去看亞歷山卓貧民窟的慘狀,讓她大受刺激。小說中亞斯特利是英格蘭地主出身的富家子弟,信奉馬爾薩斯的人口論,認為淘汰多餘的貧窮人口是大自然的法則,並以尖酸自私的態度看待人間苦難。在電影中,亞斯特利的出身背景和政治思想卻消失無蹤,而且還由一位黑人演員飾演這個角色。我只能猜想,除了免去政治經濟學的長篇大論之外,如此選角或許是為了要搬出一份多元族裔的演員名單。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">更重要的是電影怪醫形象的改變。葛德溫臉上有巨大疤痕,自稱這是他父親(也是外科名醫)在他身上進行實驗的後果。但原著中他的外型其實大不相同,雖然他身形巨大相貌醜陋,除了髮型古怪還有著圓錐狀的手指,但臉上並無疤痕。電影的造型明顯來自好萊塢的科學怪人形象。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">《可憐的東西》和《科學怪人》(Frankenstein, 1818)的親緣性很容易理解,它們的主題都是科學創造出新生命。貝拉暱稱葛德溫為葛德(”God”),也和《科學怪人》描繪科學家成為造物主的主題有關。小說也間接指出這兩部作品的連結:葛德溫(Godwin)正是《科學怪人》作者瑪麗.雪萊(Mary Shelley)在嫁給詩人雪萊而冠夫姓之前的姓氏,她的父親是十八世紀英國著名的激進政治思想家─小說家─出版商威廉.葛德溫(William Godwin)。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">儘管有上述的連結,小說中的葛德溫和法蘭克斯坦卻是相當不同的人物。葛德溫見多識廣、心地善良,對政治社會事務堅持自由進步的見解。蘇格蘭的大學、思想家與醫師在啟蒙運動佔有舉足輕重的地位,葛雷在書中也提到蘇格蘭醫學在歷史上的偉大。他筆下的怪醫活脫就是啟蒙思想的信奉者與實踐者。相反地,電影卻將葛德溫描繪成好萊塢電影常見的偏執科學家,還由近年在蜘蛛人系列飾演瘋狂科學家的威廉.達佛(Willem Dafoe)來主演。電影將主角塑造成類似科學怪人的作法,顯然是考慮到目標觀眾的熟悉度,要讓觀眾容易入戲。</span></p><h2 class="wp-block-heading" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #005757; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; font-weight: var(--pchead-wei); line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px 0px 17px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">進步議題單一化</span></strong></h2><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">電影中葛德溫對貝拉有著近乎病態的控制意念,一直不想讓她接觸外面的世界,直到無法阻止才放手。但小說中的葛德溫作風開明,早前就曾帶她環遊世界增廣見聞。當貝拉要和放蕩律師私奔,葛德溫即使不贊同也完全尊重她的意願。貝拉的女性意識成長和追求自主本來就是小說的主題,但電影卻透過改變葛德溫的人物性格,來進一步強化男女的性別對立。這樣的改編當然和美國目前的性別政治衝突有密切關係。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">同理,小說中貝拉對文學閱讀的熱愛,是旅途中巧遇一位曾擔任富家子弟家教的流浪俄國人而受啟發。這位先生感動貝拉的一席有關俄國文學如何造就俄羅斯民族的言論,如今在俄烏戰爭的背景下當然不合時宜。電影中這個角色則改由老牌德國女明星漢娜.雪古拉(Hanna Schygulla)所飾演的貴婦擔當。俄國人改為德國人,男性改為女性,一個雙重政治正確的更動!至於電影中和貝拉發生同性戀關係的妓院同事,小說根本沒這號人物。合理懷疑這是當今美國LGBTQ性別政治脈絡下的添加。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">電影中布雷辛頓將軍只是另一個父權代表人物,威權凌虐貝拉和僕傭,但他的惡行惡狀很像許多好萊塢電影中的惡棍:誇張、平板,無端。小說則詳述他的性格與經歷。布雷辛頓因為率兵在亞洲和非洲打了多場殖民戰爭,包括鎮壓印度大兵變和在中國的英法聯軍之役,屢次負傷建功而成為國家英雄。格雷細膩描寫布雷辛頓性格的扭曲來自隱藏在英勇背後的死亡慾望,並暗示變態的男性特質(masculinity)和英國帝國主義有著密不可分的關連。這個批判帝國擴張和殖民主義的面向,在影片中幾乎完全消失。簡言之,《可憐的東西》有意的將焦點放在性別政治的議題,並將原著豐富的大英帝國歷史脈絡加以剝離。</span></p><h2 class="wp-block-heading" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #005757; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; font-weight: var(--pchead-wei); line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px 0px 17px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">好萊塢全球策略</span></strong></h2><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">改編和原著必然會有差異。就《可憐的東西》而言,有些添加純出於市場考量的噱頭,例如原著中並沒有豬頭鵝身的移植怪物,葛德溫也沒將布雷辛頓的頭移植到羊身上(小說中將軍是自殺身亡)。有些更動則來自商業電影的通俗考量,如簡化敘事和人物或是使用好萊塢常見的人物造型。然而,本片和原著還有些差異卻提供了線索,讓我們進一步瞭解好萊塢的全球化策略,以及美國影視產業的文化政治。</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #888888; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-03-15T17:20:35+08:00" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"></time></span></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">作者為學術思想雜工。學生時代就熱愛看電影,如今仍保持每週進電影院的好習慣。業餘興趣雜亂無章,偶爾從事電影與文化評論。</span></strong></p>吴一舟http://www.blogger.com/profile/04733222055917760641noreply@blogger.com0Hollywood, Los Angeles, CA, USA34.0928092 -118.32866145.7825753638211523 -153.4849114 62.403043036178843 -83.1724114tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5670268195357247439.post-45546940512934555872024-03-15T09:00:00.000-07:002024-03-15T14:52:22.669-07:00【書摘】《非驢非馬──中醫、西醫與現代中國的相互形塑》5. 中國醫學革命與國醫運動<p> <span class="author-post byline" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #888888; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; margin: 6px 0px 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><span class="author vcard" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><a class="author-url url fn n" href="https://voicettank.org/author/1234567890/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; text-transform: capitalize; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s;">【</a><a class="author-url url fn n" href="https://voicettank.org/author/1234567890/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; text-transform: capitalize; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s;">書摘】</a><b>思想坦克 </b></span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; text-align: center;"></span><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #888888; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-03-15T16:27:28+08:00" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">2024 年 3 月 15 日</time></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #888888; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-03-15T16:27:28+08:00" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><br /></time></span></p><h2 class="wp-block-heading" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #005757; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; font-weight: var(--pchead-wei); line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px 0px 17px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">5. </strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">中國醫學革命與國醫運動</strong></span></h2><h2 class="wp-block-heading" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #005757; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; font-weight: var(--pchead-wei); line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px 0px 17px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">中國醫學革命</span></strong></h2><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">很少中國現代史學者聽説過「中國醫學革命」,原因很單純:那場革命原本的目標是要廢止中醫,結果不僅徹底失敗,更在相反的方向造成革命性的後果,極為反諷地催生了支持中醫的國醫運動。在陳志潛眼中,那場革命留下了一個極其不幸的後果,使中國的醫療領域自此分裂為中西醫並立。藉著聚焦於中國醫學革命與國醫運動這兩起歷史事件,本章將追溯中、西醫師如何陷入長達十年的集體鬥爭,從而深遠地形塑了中醫的現代形貌。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">中國醫學革命是余巖首創並大力倡導的概念。當他在一九二八年聲稱自己倡導這場革命已有十年之久時,他指的是他在一九一六年出版的《靈素商兌》一書。問題是,直到他在一九二八年出版的《余氏醫述》為止,該書所收錄的四十多篇文章裡,卻完全沒有任何一篇的標題含有「醫學革命」一詞。但是當余巖在一九二八年發表了〈我國醫學革命之破壞與建設〉一文之後,「醫學革命」就成了他最喜歡的口號,在他後續的著作裡一再出現。在《余氏醫述》出版四年後的一九三二年,他更將該書的書名改為《醫學革命論文選》,並在次年以同樣的書名出版續集。鑒於他採用這個概念有一個如此明確的起始點,我們有理由相信醫學革命的靈感來自國民革命的政治情勢。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">余巖曾明確指出,他的醫學革命概念源自創立社會醫學(social medicine)的德國自由主義病理學家魏爾肖(Rudolph Virchow;一八二一—一九○二)。余巖引用魏爾肖的著名口號:「醫學是一種社會科學,而政治就是規模比較大的醫學。」藉此倡導「醫學社會化」與「政治衛生化」。就這一點而言,余巖的取向並不特殊,反而是當年東亞與東南亞殖民地常見的現象。如同安德森與波爾斯(Hans Pols)最近的發現,魏爾肖的社會醫學在亞洲殖民地啟發了許多本土醫師,鼓舞他們把觸角伸展到臨床診療之外,甚至自居當地的民族主義運動的領導人。正是為了在中國實現這種同時包含醫學與政治的願景,余巖才長期獻身於廢止中醫。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">余巖在一九二八年左右突然高舉醫學革命的旗幟是有原因的。一九二八年底,國民黨的國民革命軍終於結束軍閥割據,在名義上統一了中國。一部分是因為國民黨宣稱要建設現代國家,另一部分是政治上的權宜之計,國民黨決定在新都南京建立一個衛生部。由於這些發展,包括余巖在內的若干西醫師開始擔任國家醫政官員。新取得的權位使余巖得以用比攻擊中醫學理更有效的手段來壓制中醫。於是,余巖和他的同僚把他們對中醫的攻擊,組合為實現中國醫學革命時不可或缺的一環。他指出:</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">是故吾人近來之所以大聲疾呼,提倡醫學革命,垂涕而告國人者,豈有他哉?痛舊醫之不由科學、醫政之不統一、衛生設施之多窒礙,而東方病夫之誚不能滌除。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">如此一來,余巖構思的醫學革命,就把廢止中醫納入其核心任務,而與建設國家醫療基礎設施以及解決「中國欠缺」衛生現代性(hygienic modernity)問題等量齊觀。中醫問題一旦被視為一個國家層次的問題,余巖便可提議使用「政治手段」予以解決。</span></p><h2 class="wp-block-heading" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #005757; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; font-weight: var(--pchead-wei); line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px 0px 17px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">中醫學校合法化的爭議</span></strong></h2><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">由於此時西醫師已經發展出「以國家力量普及西醫」的策略,中醫師也逐漸學到把中醫與國家連結的重要性。中醫師第一次學到這個教訓,是由於政府在一九一二年為現代學校頒布了一系列法規,其中卻完全沒有涉及中醫。由於以往沒有中醫學校,因此所謂的「國家教育體系忽略中醫」並不必然代表是一種反對中醫的官方政策。不過,這個事件促使中醫師首度發起抗議運動,在上海召開一場有十九省的代表參加的會議,迫使政府接受他們的請願。這場會議也促成後來十幾所中醫學校的成立,包括最具影響力的上海中醫專門學校,建校於一九一六年。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">另一場規模更大的運動發生於十年後,起因是備受敬重的中華教育改進社於一九二五年在太原召開一場全國教育會議。在會議中,江蘇中醫學會提案要求把中醫學校納入國家教育體系。雖然中華教育改進社向來以提倡現代教育而知名,但大會卻決議通過傳統中醫這項提案,並將決議提交教育部。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">中醫師非但沒有抗拒國家介入醫療,反而要求國家負起一項史無前例的工作,就是認證他們新創立的中醫學校。這項不尋常的要求絕非孤例,而是反映了民國時期的一個大趨勢。如同巴斯蒂(Marianne Bastid)以深刻的洞察力指出的:「相較於其他領域,教育這個領域十分獨特。在帝制時期它是不容民間染指的場域,但當革命推翻滿清而將之開啟之後,教育卻變成資產階級、仕紳階級與前立憲派人士最有能力進佔的場域。這個場域,就是國家機器。」</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">正如資產階級與仕紳階級,中醫師也認為教育是他們入主國家機器的新管道。很明顯地,中醫師發起運動的關注點並不在於醫學本身,而在能否獲取由國家新創造出來的權益。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">無怪乎中醫師居然和西醫師抱持類似的看法,也強烈批評中國政府沒有認識到醫學的重要性,所以遲遲未能充分介入醫療事務。為了強調中國歷史已有開明政府的先例,他們盛讚宋朝(九六○—一二○○)提倡醫學的不尋常表現。有人更進一步主張,中醫之所以在近代落後於西醫,就是源於宋代以後政府投入的衰退。有一名抱持此一觀點的中醫師指出:「以醫一端言之,歷代鄙為方伎,社會視若僱工,政府既未之提倡。此醫學積輕之故,非醫術不精之咎也。若國家高視醫科,如西醫之設校傳習,而許以種種權利,當不致寖銷寖滅,至於斯極也。」</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">對於中醫師而言,相較於看出西醫的「優越性」,他們更容易注意到西醫師享有他們從來不曾得到過的特權、職業利益以及政府支持。與其頑抗國家將觸角伸入醫療領域,許多中醫師很早就看出一個關注醫療的「非傳統國家」可以為他們帶來許多權益。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">這項追求中醫學校合法化的運動,激起西醫師的危機意識,而在一九二五年成立上海醫師公會,其中匯集了最積極發聲也最堅決批判中醫的人士:余巖、汪企張(一八八五—一九五五;他也是大阪府立醫學校的畢業生)、龐京周(一八九七—一九六六;畢業自德國創立的同濟大學)以及范守淵。中醫擁護者與反對者之間的對立在幾個月後又進一步激化,原因是全國教育聯合會在一九二五年十月於湖南召開大會。在那場大會上,兩個省級教育協會再度提案把中醫學校納入學校體系。再一次,大會投票決議支持這項提案。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">在此同時,余巖於一九二六年發表了〈舊醫學校系統案駁議〉,逐一駁斥提案中關於中醫學校應該納入國家學校體系的每一個論點。與他先前批判《黃帝內經》時的情形截然不同,余巖的這篇文章立刻引起中醫師們強力反擊。反應雖然如此不同,但這篇〈駁議〉裡反對中醫的論點其實與先前的《靈素商兌》大同小異。最重要的是,此篇文章與《靈素商兌》都還沒有把中醫當成推動醫學行政與公共衛生的「障礙」,但當余巖於一九二八年開始提倡「中國醫學革命」後,這就變成他主張廢止中醫的關鍵論點。</span></p><h2 class="wp-block-heading" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #005757; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; font-weight: var(--pchead-wei); line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px 0px 17px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">一九二九年的廢止中醫案</span></strong></h2><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">一九二九年春,國家終於採取了不利中醫的行動。衛生部成立五個月後,中央衛生委員會於二月二十五日舉行第一次會議。在那場會議上,委員會全體通過將中醫納入管理的提案。中央衛生委員會的成員全都是受現代醫學訓練的西醫師,包括劉瑞恆(衛生部副部長暨北京協和醫學院校長)、顏福慶(上海中央大學醫學院院長)、伍連德(防疫事務總處處長)、胡定安(南京衛生局局長)以及余巖(中華民國醫藥學會上海分會會長)。會議通過的提案採用了余巖草擬的內容,但也予以修正,要求中醫執業者必須向政府登記,並且參加政府認可的進修教育課程,才能繼續執業。根據這項提案,登記期限至一九三○年的最後一天為止,而且進修課程只提供五年。中醫不得設立學校,也不得在報紙上發表推廣文章。由於余巖的提案清楚說明政府只會舉行一次登記,其終極目標顯然是全面廢止中醫。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">在這份名為〈廢止舊醫以掃除醫事衛生之障礙案〉的提案裡,余巖詳細說明了應當廢止中醫的理由。他絕不是第一個對中醫提出這些批評的人,但由於他是中央衛生委員會的成員,他的論點就形塑了此後中西醫長期爭議的主題,是以值得我們仔細地考慮。以下我先引用這份提案的內容,然後再逐一分析他的四個論點。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">況在今日,治療醫學進而為預防醫學,個體醫學進而為社會醫學,個人對象進而為群眾對象;今日之衛生行政,乃純粹以科學新醫為基礎,而加以近代政治之意義者也。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">今舊醫所用者,陰陽五行六氣藏府經脈,皆憑空結構,全非事實,此宜廢止一也。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">其臨證獨持撓動脈,妄分一部分之血管為寸關尺三部,以支配藏府,穿鑿附會,自欺欺人。其源出于緯候之學,與天文分野,同屬無稽,此宜廢止二也。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">根本不明,診斷無法,舉凡調查死因,勘定病類,預防疫癘,無一能勝其任,強種優生之道,更無問焉。是其對民族民生之根本大計,完全不能為行政上之利用,此宜廢止三也。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">人類文化之演進,以絕地天通為最大關鍵,考之歷史,彰彰可按。所謂絕地天通者,抗天德而崇人事,黜虛玄而尚實際也;政府方以破除迷信,廢毀偶像,以謀民眾思想之科學化,而舊醫乃日持其冬傷于寒、春必病溫,夏傷于暑,秋必痎瘧等說,以教病家,提倡地天通,阻遏科學化,此宜廢止四也。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">要而言之,舊醫一日不除,民眾思想一日不變,新醫事業一日不向上,衛生行政一日不能進展。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">雖然余巖的前兩項論點只是重述他先前對中醫理論的抨擊,但他這次的論述卻高舉具有目的論的醫學發展觀。如同他在提案開頭所寫的:「況在今日,治療醫學進而為預防醫學,個體醫學進而為社會醫學,個人對象進而為群眾對象。」此外,由於他認定以「群眾」為對象是醫學演進的方向,醫學發展便勢必要結合科學醫學知識與現代政治理論。余巖的主張顯得頗具說服力,因為他陳述的正是西醫師們為了建立國家與西醫之間的連結而致力推行的策略。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">我們可以從他的第三項論點開始看起,這也是他提出的第一個新論點,其中斷定中醫在因應「民族民生之根本大計」這一點上全然無用。值得一提的是,即便余巖試圖證明中醫「無用」,他還是避免明確否認中醫治療個別病患的療效。如同第四章探討過的,他曾經自問自答「中醫的學問,是無根的草木,是靠不住,何以也會醫好病」這個問題,並且提出四項詳盡的解釋說明為何中醫能醫得好病。值得注意的是,那時余巖和西醫師們都極力反對從治癒個別病患的效果這個角度來評價中西醫的優劣,因為這正是余巖以為落伍的「個體醫學」的決定性特徵。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">在余巖眼中,中醫的無用之處在於「舉凡調查死因,勘定病類,預防疫癘,無一能勝其任,強種優生之道,更無問焉。」不過,何謂「有用」在很大的程度上取決於評估的人。在余巖和其他西醫師的眼中,「調查死因」與「勘定病類」無比重要,因為他們負有建立「國家生命統計數據」的責任。這種特定資訊主要是對國家醫政官僚有用,也只有他們能夠取用。説「中醫無用」,是對已掌握國家機器的他們而言「無用」。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">余巖的第四個論點聲稱,中醫不僅對醫學行政無用,更糟的是,對於努力使民眾「思想科學化」的政府而言,更構成巨大的障礙。毫不意外地,余巖大力抨擊中醫不符現代科學的理論,像是「冬傷于寒、春必病溫」,而宣稱這些理論導致民眾抗拒傳染病防治與細菌學說。鑒於中醫師在滿洲鼠疫時的表現,余巖論述這點時當然有理由義正辭嚴。為了正當化政府行使「四千年來未經見之極慘忍政策」,國家有強烈動機與西醫聯手壟斷一切具有合法性的醫學知識。用余巖的話來說,這種排他性的壟斷就叫做「民眾思想之科學化」。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">第三與第四個論點體現了社會學家布迪厄(Pierre Bourdieu)所指稱的「國家的象徵暴力」(symbolic violence of the state)。在西醫師進佔國家醫學官員的位置之前,他們對疾病分類與死因的觀點只是醫學領域裡許多相互競逐的觀點之一而已。但等到國家根據他們的知識頒布一系列的法規定後,西醫即可不戰而勝,因為此後國家運作的規範中已經內建了他們的知識,像是標準化後的疾病與死因分類。從此之後,中醫對抗的就不再只是另一種醫學知識傳統了,而是國家認可的官方知識。很自然地,對國家而言,中醫不但顯得無用,更變成了「醫事衛生之障礙」。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">西醫師沒有與中醫師進行任何深入辯論,就成功轉變了醫學事業的重點事項、重新界定了醫學問題的優先順序,並且把他們的學理轉變為國家的官方知識。這一切之所以可能,都是藉著余巖所謂的「以科學新醫為基礎,而加以近代政治之意義」而形成的結盟。在這兩者聯盟的威脅之下,中醫領導者旋即理解,中醫最迫切需要的就是「當有政治之眼光」。</span></p><h2 class="wp-block-heading" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #005757; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; font-weight: var(--pchead-wei); line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px 0px 17px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">三一七抗爭</span></strong></h2><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">包括中醫師在內的所有人,都沒想到中醫師竟然能夠阻擋醫學革命的時代潮流。就在余巖和西醫師們熱切迎接國民革命軍之時,有些中醫師已意識到國家的統一可能意味著中醫學校的終結。余巖的提案公開後,同樣積極批判中醫的汪企張寫下一篇措辭強烈的文章〈促學習舊醫的青年自決〉,公開警告中醫學校的學生考慮改行。汪企張相信余巖的提案將會勝出,是有道理的。首先,南京政府顯然致力追求現代化,所以衛生部內的官員絕大多數都是西醫師。此外,即便是在先前的軍閥割據時期,中醫師企圖影響國家政策的努力絕大多數都是以失敗收場。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">先前中醫師從事的政治運動大半會失敗,主要有兩個因素:他們既沒有基礎組織,也沒有體現共同利益的願景。此外,日本明治政府在一八七○年代藉著施行醫學執照制度而成功打壓漢醫的歷史經驗,想必縈繞在每個人的心頭。有鑑於此,許多中醫師都不認為與政府打交道是個好主意,更遑論積極追逐由國家創造的權益。之前部分中醫師發起將中醫學校納入教育體系的政治運動之時,他們的許多同僚都只是隔岸觀火。為了避免中國政府仿效日本政府的策略,經常有人提議中醫師應該抗拒政府介入醫療,理由是「依據四千年(醫學)學術,素未行執照」。簡言之,中醫師在政治運動方面之所以一直不太成功,就是因為許多人都不認為連結中醫與國家符合他們的利益。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">反諷的是,余巖的提案為這兩個問題提供了一個立即的解方。由於中醫師本就焦慮於重蹈日本漢醫的覆轍,因此立刻將余巖的提案視為徹底廢止中醫。是以動員一切力量以組織一個全國聯盟來阻止此提案,立刻成了他們共同的目標。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">余巖提案目標是消滅中醫群體,但其實那時中醫師尚未建立一個能夠讓他們形成群體的溝通網絡。雖然他們過去曾經為了政治運動而集結,卻一直難以組織永久性的全國協會。一名傳統醫師哀嘆埋怨道,「取締之聲稍起,便紛紛入會;取締之聲暫歇,即烟散雲消。」因此,上海中醫師試圖動員群眾抗議這項提案之時,他們幾乎必須從零開始。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">最先發起抗議活動的是神州醫藥總會,它先前曾為了將中醫學校納入教育體系在一九一三年發起過運動。這次運動的許多籌辦者都來自於副會長丁甘仁的人脈,包括他的同僚、老師與學生。舉例而言,三一七示威的發起人之一陳存仁(一九○八—九○),就是丁甘仁次子丁仲英(一八八六—一九七八)最信賴的學生。陳存仁回憶指出,他原本不曉得該怎麼向全國各地的中醫師發送訊息,呼籲他們參與這場群眾集會。所幸,陳存仁主持一份醫學週刊,而另一名發起人張贊臣(一九○四—九三)則是中醫期刊《醫界春秋》的編輯。陳存仁與張贊臣檢視他們的訂戶名單,從每一個縣裡隨機挑出兩個人,把訴求寄給這兩個人、請他們把這份文書交給當地的中醫協會,如果當地有這種組織的話。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">出乎他們的意料之外,後來由上海總商會所支持的三天大會,竟有一百三十一個組織的兩百六十二名代表參加。由於清末以來,上海總商會就是中國商業菁英在政治上的代表,因此總商會對中醫的支持令西醫擁護者感到格外地失望與懊惱。兩千多名中醫師休診半天以示支持,全國知名的胡慶餘堂也強烈抗議。各大報紙都刊登支持的全版廣告,甚至散播一項謠言,指稱外國藥廠以六百萬美元賄賂余巖提案。這個由中醫擁護者發起的示威活動被描述為國民黨終結軍閥以來最龐大的群眾運動。在中醫師聚集開會的禮堂裡,牆上懸掛著兩副巨聯,分別寫著:「提倡中醫以防文化侵略!」以及「提倡中藥以防經濟侵略!」為了爭取各界支持,中醫師不僅訴諸文化民族主義,更訴諸國貨運動。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">國貨運動興起於一九一一年辛亥革命前夕,主要是鼓勵人民購買國產商品以支持國家經濟獨立。藉由全體一致的經濟行動來回應國恥,國貨運動標誌了一種新式群眾運動的興起。於是,政府官員與新興的中國資本家共同努力把愛國精神與購買國產商品連結為一。藉著把中藥轉譯為「國貨」,中醫支持者不止可以爭取到中藥業者,更可以爭取到原本並不關心中西醫之爭的國貨運動的人士。結果證明這是一項非常成功的策略。除了中醫藥業者本身之外,全國商業聯合會、國貨維持會以及藥業職工會(主要是藥業工人)都立刻表態支持示威抗爭。實際上,中國的藥業協會不僅從一開始就加入這場抗議活動,而且還接待了來自上海以外地區的代表。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">在第一天結束之前,杭州中醫協會的一名代表說出了所有與會者的心聲:「全國中醫藥團體之團結,與此次之全國代表大會,為空前未有之首舉。我中醫藥界,受人摧殘,至於如此,實堪痛心。今日為我們代表大會開幕之第一日,我中醫藥界同人,應以今日為紀念日,亦即『三一七』為我們今後永久之紀念日。」他的提議獲得熱烈鼓掌通過,於是三月十七日就此定為「全國醫藥大團結紀念日」。與會者最為感動興奮的一點,就是目擊彼此以全國大會代表的身分齊聚一堂,從而見證了中醫是一個全國性的團體。這個目標當然不可能僅靠一次聚會達成,而需要持續不斷的努力。為期三天的大會裡討論並且通過了一百零五項議案。除了反對余巖的提案之外,中醫支持者也決議成立一個永久性的全國組織──不只代表中醫執業者,也代表製藥產業──藉此「集中力量,以禦外侮」。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">許多代表提議借此機會為中醫業與中藥業建立起永久的結盟關係。於是決議建立全國醫藥團體總聯合會,其中包含中醫界團體、中藥界團體,以及藥業職工團體。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">此處必須釐清的是,大會與會者刻意避免提及「中醫」,反而在他們的總聯合會與次聯合會名稱當中強調「全國」一詞。這麼做顯然是為了製造他們代表中國大多數醫師與藥師的印象。在總聯合會之下,也設有各省、各縣與各區域的分會。面對被廢止的威脅,中醫執業者踴躍加入。在三年內,分會數目就從兩百四十二個增加至五百一十八個,包括在香港、菲律賓與新加坡的分支機構。為了回應余巖提案的威脅,史無前例的跨國中醫網絡開始逐漸成形。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">大會中最戲劇性的一刻,就是當與會代表要為他們的專業「正名」之時。代表們不僅排斥「非科學醫」與「舊醫」這類帶有貶義的名稱,而且令人意外地,也決議拒絕「中醫」之名,儘管有些人已經如此自稱好一陣子了。郭適(Ralph Croizier)關於中醫的開創性研究的結論指出,國醫運動的主要動力是一種心理認同的需求,源於支持者希望能在文化鉅變下保有獨特的中國認同(uniquely Chinese identity)。如果這真是最主要的動力,實在難以想像其支持者為什麼捨「中醫」而偏好「國醫」之名。</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">作者為臺灣大學化學學士、芝加哥大學化學碩士、科學史博士,中央研究院近代史研究所研究員兼所長,陽明交通大學科技與社會研究所合聘教授,East Asian Science, Technology and Society: An International Journal</strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">創刊成員及副主編 </strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">(2016-2020</strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">)。</strong></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">曾榮獲國際東亞科學、技術與醫療史學會(International Society for the History of East Asian Science, Technology and Medicine</strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">)所頒發的竺可楨青年學者獎(2005</strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">)、中央研究院年輕學者研究著作獎(2006</strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">)、科技部傑出研究獎(2016</strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">)。</strong></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">所著Neither Donkey Nor Horse : Medicine in the Struggle Over China</strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">’s Modernity</strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">榮獲美國醫學史學會(American Association for the History of Medicine</strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">)所頒發之William Welch Medal </strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">(2016</strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">),以及中央研究院人文及社會科學學術性專書獎(2015</strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">)。</strong></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">普林斯頓高等研究院成員(2013</strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">-14</strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">),哈佛大學燕京學社訪問學人(2004</strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">-05</strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">)。</strong></span></p><div class="wp-block-image is-style-default" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; margin: 0px 0px 1em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><figure class="alignleft size-full is-resized" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: table; float: left; margin: 0.5em 1em 0.5em 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img alt="" class="wp-image-25215" decoding="async" height="2560" sizes="(max-width: 1998px) 100vw, 1998px" src="https://voicettank.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/%EF%BC%88%E5%B7%A6%E5%B2%B8%EF%BC%89%E9%9D%9E%E9%A9%A2%E9%9D%9E%E9%A6%AC-%E7%AB%8B%E9%AB%94%E6%9B%B8%EF%BC%8B%E6%9B%B8%E8%85%B0300dpi-scaled.jpg" srcset="https://voicettank.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/(左岸)非驢非馬-立體書+書腰300dpi-scaled.jpg 1998w, https://voicettank.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/(左岸)非驢非馬-立體書+書腰300dpi-234x300.jpg 234w, https://voicettank.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/(左岸)非驢非馬-立體書+書腰300dpi-799x1024.jpg 799w, https://voicettank.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/(左岸)非驢非馬-立體書+書腰300dpi-768x984.jpg 768w, https://voicettank.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/(左岸)非驢非馬-立體書+書腰300dpi-1199x1536.jpg 1199w, https://voicettank.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/(左岸)非驢非馬-立體書+書腰300dpi-1599x2048.jpg 1599w, https://voicettank.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/(左岸)非驢非馬-立體書+書腰300dpi-1920x2460.jpg 1920w, https://voicettank.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/(左岸)非驢非馬-立體書+書腰300dpi-1170x1499.jpg 1170w, https://voicettank.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/(左岸)非驢非馬-立體書+書腰300dpi-585x749.jpg 585w" style="aspect-ratio: 0.738281 / 1; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: none; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; width: 143px;" width="1998" /></span></figure></div><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; line-height: 2em; margin: 0px 0px 2em; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">書名</strong>:<strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">《非驢非馬──中醫、西醫與現代中國的相互形塑》</strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong><br style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;" /><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">編者:<strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">雷祥麟(Sean Hsiang-lin LEI)</strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong><br style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;" /><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">出版社:<strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong 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style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">左岸文化</strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong><br style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;" /></span><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">出版時間:2024年2月</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;" /></strong></p><p><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #888888; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-03-15T16:27:28+08:00" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"></time></span></p><div id="wpdevar_comment_2" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #313131; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; width: 780px;"><br /></div>吴一舟http://www.blogger.com/profile/04733222055917760641noreply@blogger.com0China35.86166 104.1953977.5514261638211551 69.039147 64.171893836178839 139.351647tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5670268195357247439.post-1895514327460105822024-03-15T08:30:00.000-07:002024-03-15T14:39:48.965-07:00金雁:当整个俄国“只有一个自由人——沙皇”,贵族也不过是另一种农奴<p><span style="background-color: white;"> <span class="rich_media_meta rich_media_meta_nickname" id="profileBt" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); display: inline-block; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: middle;"><a class="wx_tap_link js_wx_tap_highlight weui-wa-hotarea" id="js_name" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative;">新周说</a></span><span style="font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.544px;"> </span><span id="meta_content_hide_info" style="font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span class="rich_media_meta rich_media_meta_text" id="publish_time" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); display: inline-block; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: middle;">2024-02-21 19:46</span> <span aria-labelledby="js_a11y_op_ip_wording js_ip_wording" class="rich_media_meta rich_media_meta_text" id="js_ip_wording_wrp" role="option" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); display: inline-block; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: middle;"><span aria-hidden="true" id="js_a11y_op_ip_wording" style="margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"></span><span aria-hidden="true" id="js_ip_wording" style="margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;">北京</span></span></span></span></p><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="box-sizing: border-box !important; display: flex; flex-flow: row; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; justify-content: center; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 10px 0px -25px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: center; transform: translate3d(-1px, 0px, 0px);"><section class="js_darkmode__bg__0 js_darkmode__1" data-style="padding: 2px; outline: 0px; display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: auto; align-self: stretch; flex: 0 0 auto; background-image: linear-gradient(90deg, rgb(106, 47, 244) 0%, rgb(183, 9, 167) 100%); min-width: 5%; height: auto;" style="align-self: stretch; background-image: linear-gradient(90deg, rgb(106, 47, 244) 0%, rgb(183, 9, 167) 100%); box-sizing: border-box !important; display: inline-block; flex: 0 0 auto; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-width: 5%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 2px; vertical-align: top; width: auto;"><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="box-sizing: border-box !important; display: flex; flex-flow: row; justify-content: flex-start; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><section style="align-self: center; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: rgb(205, 205, 205) !important; display: inline-block; flex: 0 0 auto; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-width: 5%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px 0px 0px 11px; vertical-align: middle; width: auto;"><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="box-sizing: border-box !important; color: white; font-size: 19px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><strong style="background-color: #ff00fe; box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">摘要</strong></p></section></section><section style="align-self: center; box-sizing: border-box !important; display: inline-block; flex: 100 100 0%; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; vertical-align: middle; width: auto;"><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="box-sizing: border-box !important; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="background-color: #ff00fe;"><span style="color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.52);"> </span><span style="color: white;"><b> The Abstract</b></span></span></p></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box !important; display: inline-block; flex: 0 0 auto; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-width: 5%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top; width: auto;"><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><section class="js_darkmode__2" data-style="outline: 0px; display: inline-block; width: 0px; height: 0px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; border-style: solid; border-width: 36px 15px 0px 0px; border-color: rgb(182, 10, 168) rgba(255, 255, 255, 0) rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);" style="border-color: rgb(182, 10, 168) rgba(255, 255, 255, 0) rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); border-style: solid; border-width: 36px 15px 0px 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important; display: inline-block; height: 0px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top; width: 0px;"><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></p></section></section></section></section></section><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="background-color: #191919; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.6); display: flex; flex-flow: row; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; justify-content: flex-start; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 10px 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><section class="js_darkmode__bg__1 js_darkmode__3" data-style="padding: 1px; outline: 0px; display: inline-block; width: 677px; vertical-align: top; align-self: flex-start; flex: 0 0 auto; background-image: linear-gradient(90deg, rgb(106, 47, 244) 0%, rgb(183, 9, 167) 100%);" style="align-self: flex-start; background-image: linear-gradient(90deg, rgb(106, 47, 244) 0%, rgb(183, 9, 167) 100%); box-sizing: border-box !important; color: rgb(205, 205, 205) !important; display: inline-block; flex: 0 0 auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 1px; vertical-align: top; width: 677px;"><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="box-sizing: border-box !important; display: flex; flex-flow: row; justify-content: flex-start; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><section style="align-self: flex-start; box-sizing: border-box !important; display: inline-block; flex: 0 0 auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 27px; vertical-align: top; width: 675px;"><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; color: white; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">贵族也是“终身服役,永世捆绑在国家体制上”,如敢违逆,严惩不贷。例如1720年法律规定,擅离职守的贵族要受到鞭打、割鼻、终身服苦役、剥夺封地和夹鞭刑等惩罚,他们的名字要悬挂在绞架上示众,举报逃匿的服役军人可以得到他的财产,而接纳逃匿的服役军人要受到连坐法的处罚,以至于一些贵族宁愿去当商人、农民或者把他们的后代过继给其他阶层的人也不愿当兵。</span></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; color: white; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">在俄国的这种国家体制下,受约束的不光是农奴,同时也包括可以使用农奴的主人。</span></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; color: white; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">贵族的门槛并不难进,可以说整个服兵役的军功贵族都不是血统贵族,但它是以自身的被束缚为条件的(这就与集权国家的官吏一样,虽然比农民优越,但仍是沙皇的奴才,而且有比农民更多的纪律约束)。</span></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; color: white; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">在当时的俄国,强制教育和强制服兵役是同样性质的,在“‘警察国家’学习和服役是没有区别的,学习本身就是服役”,贵族没有任何自我选择的自由,一旦违规,处罚之严厉是并不亚于追捕逃亡农奴的。</span></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; color: white; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">彼得一世时期贵族的服役义务达到最高峰,国家与贵族之间的紧张关系也达到了顶点,贵族受军事或非军事义务约束,被限制在固定地区,他们与农奴所不同的是,不是被束缚在居住地,而是被束缚在服役地。这个时期沙皇与贵族之间的关系也是一种国家对其他等级的奴役关系,可以说整个俄国“只有一个自由人——沙皇”。所以在贵族中逃学和逃避兵役一样普遍。</span></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; color: white; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">本文摘自金雁教授<span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; letter-spacing: 0.034em; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">的著作《</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; letter-spacing: 0.034em; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-decoration-color: rgb(136, 136, 136); text-decoration-style: solid; text-indent: 0em;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; letter-spacing: 0.034em; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-decoration-color: rgb(136, 136, 136); text-decoration-style: solid;">倒转“红轮”</span>:<span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; letter-spacing: 0.034em; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-decoration-color: rgb(136, 136, 136); text-decoration-style: solid;">俄国知识分子的心路回溯</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; letter-spacing: 0.034em; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">》,标题为编者所加</span></span></span></p></section></section></section></section></section><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="box-sizing: border-box !important; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="box-sizing: border-box !important; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; visibility: visible;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><br /></p></section><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="box-sizing: border-box !important; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span class="js_darkmode__4" data-style="outline: 0px; font-size: 15px; color: rgb(0, 82, 255);" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; font-family: system-ui; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: left;">金雁教授的著作《雁过留声:我的青葱岁月》“<span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">是以文学手法写作的回忆散文</span>”,“<span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">在本书当中,</span>可以看到历史名词背后有着鲜活的人与事,通过作者的叙述,他们依然像当年那样真切,令每一个阅读者感同身受”。平凡的人物因此被记住</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; letter-spacing: 0.034em; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">……欲购书者,敬请点击上图</span></span></p></section><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;">在俄国制度的架构中,各等级是一个相互围绕国家的递进关系,也就是克柳切夫斯基所说的,是一种石头彼此间支撑保证整体的“石拱桥”结构。农民是贵族的农奴,<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">贵族是国家的农奴,服役贵族也是一种农奴。</strong>这些“军人最初是分封王公的‘自由臣仆’,最后都成为莫斯科大公们的‘奴隶’,他们同农民一样丧失了自由迁徙的权利,而且他的这种奴隶地位,——也许更甚于农奴”。在服役人员的世界中也有很多悲惨的经历。<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">农奴制的确立是在16-17世纪,其实同时期贵族的“不自由”也表现得尤为突出,他们不允许逃避兵役,不允许谎报农奴人数</strong>,凡有隐瞒了农民人数的,处罚是查没家产和处以死刑。<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">1721年,彼得下了一道严酷的指令</strong>,主动归队并上报实际农奴人数者,9月1日前为赦免的最后期限,否则杀伐并出,接下来就派出由各级军官组成的“清查组”挨户调查,结果发现隐瞒男性农奴100万,<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">最后受罚的不是农奴而是贵族,有大量的人因此而被处罚和流放。</strong>1705年,彼得把不定期招募改为向全社会定期征兵,但是这并不意味着减轻贵族的义务,只是把兵役制扩大到整个社会。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;"> </span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;">人们都知道,农奴不能离开主人的份地,逃离者被抓获要归还原主人,但很少有人知道<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">贵族也是“终身服役,永世捆绑在国家体制上”,如敢违逆,严惩不贷。</strong>例如<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">1720年法律规定,擅离职守的贵族要受到鞭打、割鼻、终身服苦役、剥夺封地和夹鞭刑等惩罚,他们的名字要悬挂在绞架上示众,举报逃匿的服役军人可以得到他的财产,而接纳逃匿的服役军人要受到连坐法的处罚,以至于一些贵族宁愿去当商人、农民或者把他们的后代过继给其他阶层的人也不愿当兵。</strong>1711年,基辅省有53名贵族在休假后没有报到被剥夺了领地。1722年,人口调查时卡卢加省因为贵族逃匿,有11个贵族和85个农民为此受到拷打,其中1名贵族和10个农民被严刑致死,另有7名贵族和6名贵族家属被捕,其中1人因不堪忍受酷刑而自杀。<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">在俄国,拒不应招者即被宣告“政治上死亡”,马上被逐出贵族社会,他的人身和财产不再受法律保护,任何人都可以抢掠其财物,任何人都可以将其打伤或打死而不受惩罚;如果逃往他处,任何人都可以将其扭送官府,即便扭送者为农奴,也可以得到该人半数的财产。直到18世纪末,终身贵族才被免除体罚、赋役和服兵役</strong>,但不能世袭。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;"> </span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;">正如普列汉诺夫所说:“我们可以得出如下的结论:莫斯科国家与西方国家的区别,在于它不仅奴役了最低的农民阶级,而且奴役了最高的官宦阶级。”那些在农奴之上的贵族们说,“我们是奴隶,因为我们是老爷,我们是仆人,因为我们是农奴的主人,……我们是农奴,因为我们是同他们出身一样、血液一样、语言一样的不自由的兄弟们。”<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">如果不清楚俄国兵役带来的这一系列衍生制度的话,很难理解“农奴的主人也是农奴”这样的表达。</strong>1714年法令规定,贵族没有在近卫军中当过兵,禁止提升为军官,逃避服役者没收财产,遭受辱刑。<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">1715年建立“告密制度”,一方面检举逃匿不上税的“分裂派教徒”,另一方面揭发不服役的贵族,将躲避服役的贵族名单公布并没收其领地,服役可以说是贵族唯一的生活道路。</strong>在俄国的这种国家体制下,<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">受约束的不光是农奴,同时也包括可以使用农奴的主人。</strong>在俄国的法律当中“所有权、动产、不动产、使用权”这些概念直到叶卡特琳娜二世时才出现在法律文件中,此前所有的土地、所有的人都不具有完全意义的自由概念。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;"> </span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;">普希金说,<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">贵族</strong>在罗马可以成为布鲁图,在雅典可以成为伯里克利,但<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">在俄国只能成为一名不自由的“骠骑兵军官”。</strong>俄国贵族这种独特的发展历程决定了它与西欧贵族的不同,<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">贵族的军事性与“不自由”在前期表现的十分突出,贵族不是一个独立的阶级,他们对国家和王权有很强的依附性。</strong>俄国贵族在彼得改革时期增加了15万人。应该说,<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">贵族的门槛并不难进,可以说整个服兵役的军功贵族都不是血统贵族,但它是以自身的被束缚为条件的(这就与集权国家的官吏一样,虽然比农民优越,但仍是沙皇的奴才,而且有比农民更多的纪律约束)。</strong></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;"> </span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;">贵族史学家罗曼诺维奇-斯拉瓦金斯基在19世纪时就说:“彼得一世时期,贵族对国家的依附关系就如同农民对贵族的依附关系一样。”这种国家与贵族之间的关系被贵族复制到自己的领地上,贵族不自由被效法到领地上导致农奴不自由。所以,<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">在1855年法律史学家卡维林首先提出了“国家农奴制”的概念,意即在这种体制下,所有人面对国家都是农奴。</strong>所不同的是,贵族对国家是一层奴役关系,僧侣是面临国家、教会两层奴役关系,而农奴则具有国家、领主、村社三层奴役关系。塔吉谢夫对此的解释是:“即便是最聪明、最年富力强的人也认为,单凭自身的力量难以生存,失去自由与拥有自由相比,前者更有益。”因此,俄国不可能存在“自由”。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;"> </span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">领地制造成的贵族法律意义上的不独立,使他们对政府既有不满又有依赖的双重性。在俄国军事化的凝固过程中,贵族的精神世界也是僵死而压抑的,沙皇对他们只分配义务从不谈权利。</strong>军功贵族与波雅尔贵族不同,他们没有政治力量的代表,与沙皇政权的关系纯属主奴关系,他们只是在被奴役阶层中比较重用而“受宠”,因而处于较高的位置,在他们之下还有农奴,<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">这也就是为什么后来的贵族知识分子具有反对专制制度的一面,因为</strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">贵族“具有被国家奴化的所有特征”</strong>。正如赫尔岑所说的,<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">从俄国的结构来看,“贵族阶级中包含着革命的酵素”,贵族对政府的“离心力”要超过农民。</strong></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">军人的强迫义务教育</strong></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;">随着近代战争技术含量的提高,对军人的专业要求也越来越高,俄国的扩张步伐加快,对贵族学习军事技能的要求也越来越高,甚至成为服役的必要条件。<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">18世纪创办的贵族学校几乎清一色的是有关军事的</strong>:士官武备学校、海军士官学校、贵族炮兵学校、贵族工程学校、皇村中学,少将和二品以上的官员必须毕业于这些学校,其中最有名的是苏沃洛夫陆军学校和纳西莫夫军校,军校的地位远远比普通大学甚至莫斯科大学高得多。那时有一句名言:“军校的大门只对贵族开放。”国家为了提高贵族的战斗力,<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">强迫他们必须有学习的义务,“未能尽到这一义务者,要受到处分”。贵族子弟的学习都是处在政府的监督下,包括去国外学习都是强制命令的,贵族为了逃避这种强制性的学习,想尽了一切办法</strong>,比如隐瞒孩子的出生,把孩子的户口报在其他阶层的名义下,在征兵季节来临时提前快速结婚,甚至送到修道院,但是这种行径<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">一旦被查出或遭人揭发,就会受到严厉的惩处。</strong>强制义务教育是国家对贵族的硬性规定,“学习被视为贵族的一种特殊的义务,这种义务是和官衔相挂钩的”。在国家看来,学习各种技术知识就等于贵族交纳的实物贡税,<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">强迫教育是为了“使贵族阶层比其他等级的人更优秀地执行沙皇陛下的军事义务”。1714年规定,擅自离开学校者的婚姻被视为非法行为,因为没有学校颁发的学习合格证书,是领不到结婚许可证书的。</strong></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;"> </span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;">现在的人们认为,接受教育获取文化知识不但能开阔眼界而且可以改变个人的命运,是求之不得的事情,贫寒人家砸锅卖铁也要供孩子读书。但<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">在当时的俄国,强制教育和强制服兵役是同样性质的,在“‘警察国家’学习和服役是没有区别的,学习本身就是服役”,贵族没有任何自我选择的自由,一旦违规,处罚之严厉是并不亚于追捕逃亡农奴的。</strong>彼得一世禁止不识字的贵族结婚,不可以生育后代,还要加以经济处罚。<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">军校里有很严重的体罚措施,打骂、鞭笞、关禁闭都是“传统的保留节目”。</strong>十二月党人施泰因利在回忆录中描绘了这种让人心惊肉跳的惩罚方法,<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">“两个强壮的打手把有过失者推到一条长凳上,抓住他的手和脚,另有两个人用枝条拼命地抽打,挨打者血如泉涌,身体被撕成碎块,常打到600下或者更多,直至不幸的受苦者被送到军医院为止”。</strong>在1754-1756年的普查中,国家<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">通过对147个贵族的调查发现,他们的216个子弟违反了规定而“在家接受教育”,其实就是逃避这种强制教育。</strong></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;"> </span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;">贵族被强制普及教育的后果在半个世纪甚至一个世纪以后效果显现出来,俄国贵族的文化水平要比普通人高出许多倍。19世纪中叶,俄国农村的读书人只有60万-100万,占总人口的1%-1.5%,而贵族的识字率高达到76%。过去这组数字只用来说明贵族对俄国民众的强势统治地位,这当然也不错。不过今天我们也要看到它的另一面,否则就无法理解,何以<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">在这批似乎是“天之骄子”的上层青年中会出现如此多的叛逆。</strong></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;"> </span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">彼得一世时期贵族的服役义务达到最高峰,国家与贵族之间的紧张关系也达到了顶点,贵族受军事或非军事义务约束,被限制在固定地区,他们与农奴所不同的是,不是被束缚在居住地,而是被束缚在服役地。</strong>这个时期沙皇与贵族之间的关系也是一种国家对其他等级的奴役关系,可以说<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">整个俄国“只有一个自由人——沙皇”</strong>。所以<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">在贵族中逃学和逃避兵役一样普遍,为了堵塞贵族钻空子,国家出台了一系列的处罚措施,1733年政府规定,第一次逃学的贵族子弟要与士官生子弟一起在当地的卫戍学校学习一年,第二次逃学则延长学习期限三年;1736年颁布的法律规定,凡是揭发贵族违反政府规定者,没收其财产奖励给揭发者。</strong>“不报到、退学和逃学应该搜捕和抓回来,有时甚至还要戴上镣铐”,<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">学校成为一个“可诅咒的地方”,只要能摆脱这种学习的差事,“他们宁可被抓去坐牢”</strong>。对学习期间的贵族要进行三次国家考核(12、16、20岁),合格者根据文化程度可以分配到近卫军或骑兵军团相应的岗位服役,不合格者只能送到海军里当水手。<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">只有家中有100户农奴以上的贵族子弟才有资格在家学习,但也必须参加国考。家庭教育成为逃避国家义务的一种方式。</strong>这样,贵族与国家之间的矛盾就发展成仅次于农奴与农奴主之间矛盾,成为第二大国家性难题。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;">——网友推荐</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYYmUc91LZMouIoby2CsB3VzlC9yYF3YjnDZNsu3GMbK2S-snpx6l2p0kH_hoiBWtE0ln2kAP65o-tKggH8EuUbzZwspUICmePZVuj7MprXc5EZmF31IREUQbN5buRcCSWN7ul0ju90kvyo3BCT0P9Q_9-0TLDIFse5fJHWyik9wmMLuuoOiIxbEQpOlRq/s394/image.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img 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outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">作者简介</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">:</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">郑</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">异凡</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">,曾任中央编译局世界社会主义研究所苏东处处长,俄罗斯研究中心顾问,中国俄罗斯东</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">欧中亚学会常务理事。</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">本文选编自《苏联真相——对101个重要问题的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">思考》一书。</span></div><p><br /></p><p class="js_darkmode__9" data-style="margin-bottom: 0em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; visibility: visible; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; color: #222222; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px 0px 0em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: center; visibility: visible;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;">苏联最高权力是怎样交接的?</span></span></strong></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__9" data-style="margin-bottom: 0em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; visibility: visible; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; color: #222222; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px 0px 0em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: center; visibility: visible;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></strong></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__10" data-style="margin-bottom: 0em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; visibility: visible; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px 0px 0em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: center; visibility: visible;"><span style="color: #444444; font-size: medium;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"></span></span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: left;">作者:</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: left;">郑异凡</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__10" data-style="margin-bottom: 0em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; visibility: visible; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; color: #222222; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px 0px 0em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: center; visibility: visible;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; color: #888888; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><br /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__10" data-style="margin-bottom: 0em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; visibility: visible; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px 0px 0em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: center; visibility: visible;"><br /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><br /></p><p class="js_darkmode__14" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">列宁没有制定权力交接机制</span></span></strong></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__15" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__16" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">十月革命后列宁是理所当然的党内领袖,这一点不存在任何疑问。到20世纪20年代初,列宁开始设想理想的领导班子的组合:不同年龄段的组合。实际上当时的领导班子相当符合列宁的设想,包括有各个年龄段的干部,是一个理想的梯形结构。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__17" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__18" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">1921年底1922年初,列宁健康开始出现问题,此后不得不经常休养。到1922年底由于两次中风,已不能再主持政治局和人民委员会的工作,无法处理日常事务。这时候,<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">列宁显然已经感觉到接班问题,但是并没有采用指定接班人的做法。</strong></span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__19" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__20" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">列宁当政时期,党和国家的领导人都很年轻,列宁本人逝世时也才54岁。所以那时并没有制定一个权力交接的制度,甚至没有确定党内最高职务。列宁在党内是政治局委员,主持政治局会议,党外是人民委员会主席。列宁的领袖地位是由他在革命和建设中的作用自然而然地形成,被全党所默认的。在列宁所担任的职务中哪一个是关键的领导位置,那时并不明确。列宁因故未能出席政治局会议时,主持会议的是加米涅夫。列宁去世后担任人民委员会主席的是李可夫,但很难说他们中哪一个是列宁的接班人。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__21" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__22" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">1922年12月底,列宁写了给党的第十二次代表大会的信,其中对6位党的领导人提出自己的看法,既指出他们的优点和长处,也指出他们的缺点和错误。这6人应当是列宁优先考虑的继任者。这6人分为三组:托洛茨基和斯大林,季诺维也夫和加米涅夫,布哈林和皮达可夫。在这6人中列宁认为最能干的是托洛茨基,最有理论修养的是布哈林,权力最大的是斯大林。列宁没有表示属意某一个人。他把这些看法告诉代表大会,显然是要代表大会集体作出选择。然而在列宁生前这封信没有能够送达第十二次代表大会。列宁去世后在党的十三大上,当时掌握最高权力的“三驾马车”(斯大林、季诺维也夫和加米涅夫)出于自身的利益考虑,没有在大会上公开宣读并认真讨论列宁的信,而是在各代表团中分别口头传达,代表们只匆匆听了一遍,没有就此展开讨论,就草草了之。<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">对这样一份重要文件,仅仅听一遍,又不让讨论,是很难领会其要义的。</strong></span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__23" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__24" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">长期流行一种说法,1922年党的十一大后中央全会上“列宁提议”斯大林担任中央总书记,暗示是列宁指定斯大林担任他的接班人。这种说法完全不符合事实。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__25" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__26" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">其一,斯大林担任总书记一职不是列宁提议的,现在看到的各种资料证实,此事是季诺维也夫和加米涅夫,也许还有斯大林本人在底下商妥,由主持会议的加米涅夫提议的。当然,与会的列宁并没有反对。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__27" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__28" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">其二,“总书记”的职务在当时并非党内的最高领导职务。此前书记处设有“责任书记”,负责领导整个书记处的工作,现在把“责任书记”改成“总书记”,其职责并没有多大改变,仍然是书记处的头,负责书记处的领导工作。犹如《真理报》的主编最初叫“责任编辑”,后来叫“主编”一样,基本任务并没有变。总书记及其书记处只负责日常的党务工作。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__29" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__30" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">第三,1923年1月4日,在《对1922年12月24日一信的补充》中列宁明确提出,鉴于斯大林太粗暴,建议撤销其总书记的职务,另任他人担任。两个月后,1923年3月5日列宁又致信斯大林,要同他断绝关系。由此可见,有一点是清楚的,列宁已经明确无误地把斯大林排除出接班的行列。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__31" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__32" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">斯维尔德洛夫逝世后,列宁曾经说过,没有一个人能够接替他的工作,能够接替他的只能是一个集体。对接替列宁来说,当时更没有一个人具有此能力和威望,能取代的只能是一个集体。看来,列宁在给代表大会的信中对6名中央委员进行评论,目的就在于此。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__33" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__34" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">列宁卧病和去世后,一段时间党内处于群龙无首的状态。十二大由谁作政治报告一开始就成为问题,没有一个众望所归的人物。斯大林虚情假意地推举托洛茨基,托洛茨基假意推举斯大林,结果由季诺维也夫出来作中央政治报告,斯大林作组织工作报告,托洛茨基作关于工业问题的报告。不过,从来没有人认为作中央政治报告的季诺维也夫是列宁的接班人。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__35" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__36" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">列宁卧病期间和逝世之后实际掌权的是一个由季诺维也夫、加米涅夫和斯大林组成的“三驾马车”,他们因反托洛茨基的共同利益而联合起来,因为在斯大林和季诺维也夫看来,争夺最高领导权的唯一对手是托洛茨基。斯大林在党内的绝对领导地位不是列宁给的,而是他在20年代纵横捭阖,不断地拉一派打一派的结果。他首先联合季诺维也夫、加米涅夫、布哈林、李可夫、托姆斯基等人打击托洛茨基,然后又联合布哈林、李可夫和托姆斯基等人击败托洛茨基、季诺维也夫和加米涅夫的联盟,最后集中精力打垮布哈林、李可夫和托姆斯基“右派”。这样,<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">通过残酷的党内斗争,到20年代末斯大林终于赢得党内和国内的绝对领导地位。</strong></span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__37" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__38" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">斯大林和他的接班人问题</span></span></strong></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__39" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__40" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">从1929年独揽大权算起,斯大林单独执政了24年。斯大林考虑过接班人问题没有呢?他谈论过接班人问题。1923年4月在俄共十二大上斯大林就大谈接班人问题。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__41" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__42" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">斯大林在中央组织报告中说,要谈谈改善中央机关的问题,即扩大中央委员会的问题。他说:“我们党的中央机关的情况是这样的:我们有27个中央委员。中央委员会会议每两个月召开一次,而中央委员会里有一个10人到15人组成的核心,这些人在领导我们的机关的政治和经济工作方面已经熟练到有使自己变成领导术士的危险。这也许是好的,但是这也有很危险的一面,因为这些同志既然在领导方面积累了极其丰富的经验,他们就可能沾染上自负的习气,就可能故步自封,脱离群众工作……如果他们的周围没有同地方工作有密切联系的未来新一代的领导者,那么这些高度熟练的人就完全有可能僵化和脱离群众。”斯大林提出的第二点理由是,领导班子“老化”:“中央委员会里富有领导经验的核心在逐渐衰老,它需要接班人。弗拉基米尔 · 伊里奇的健康状况你们是知道的。中央委员会基本核心里的其他委员的年龄也相当大了,你们也是知道的。但新的接班人还没有,——不幸就在这里。”他认为现在是考虑培养新的接班人的时候了。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__43" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__44" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">然而所谓班子“老化”的说法是根本站不住脚的。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__45" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__46" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">1922年9月2日,列宁同他的妹妹玛丽亚 · 伊利尼奇娜谈起革命家的青春问题,说起最亲密的同志中谁多大岁数,哪一代人进入中央委员会。他发挥一个想法,中央委员会应有几代人参加:50岁、40岁、30岁和20岁。这样青年人就能参加中央委员会的工作,逐渐熟悉和习惯于这个工作。中央委员会就能“永葆青春”了。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__47" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__48" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">斯大林的秘书巴让诺夫的回忆录中也说,1922年列宁曾经在政治局会议上说:“同志们,我们已是年过半百的人了。而你们,同志们,大家都是40来岁的人。我们应当培养接班人,培养30来岁和20来岁的人,要从中选拔并培养他们逐渐担负起领导工作。”</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__49" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__50" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">这是列宁对领导班子最佳年龄搭配的设想。从这里可以看出,1922年底列宁在给代表大会的信(“政治遗嘱”)中对6名中央委员逐个提出自己的看法,从年龄的角度看也不是偶然的。1922年列宁本人52岁,托洛茨基和斯大林两人同年,生于1879年,都是43岁;季诺维也夫和加米涅夫同年,生于1883年,为39岁;最年轻的两人,布哈林生于1888年,34岁,皮达可夫生于1890年,32岁。这是一个相当理想的年龄梯队,完全符合列宁同玛丽亚谈话的设想。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__51" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__52" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">列宁“遗嘱”中提到的这6人,显然不存在老化问题。斯大林这时候大谈“老化”无非是想借此把自己人拉进最高领导班子里来。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__53" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__54" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">不过这时候说的接班人问题还不是接斯大林的班的问题。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__55" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__56" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">斯大林掌权到卫国战争胜利后,到60多岁的时候,他的健康状况不佳,病了一段时间,这时候他开始考虑自己的接班人问题了。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__57" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__58" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">据现在所知,他正式提出过两个人选——来自列宁格勒的库兹涅佐夫和沃兹涅先斯基。这两个人在卫国战争中,在保卫列宁格勒的战役中,在战后的经济恢复工作中有突出的表现。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__59" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__60" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">1941年6月德国入侵苏联时,列宁格勒的第一把手日丹诺夫在南方休假,列宁格勒的全部防务以至居民生活的安排都由第二书记库兹涅佐夫负责。斯大林曾经给他写信说:伏罗希洛夫和日丹诺夫累了,焦躁不安……他们需要好好睡一下……组织防御、动员一切力量等全部工作,我只能依靠你了。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__61" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__62" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">战后有一天,斯大林在里扎湖休息时曾经大发感慨,宣称我老了,我在考虑接班人问题。部长会议主席最合适的接班人是沃兹涅先斯基。总书记最合适的接班人是库兹涅佐夫……怎么样,同志们,不反对吧。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__63" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__64" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">阿 · 亚 · 库兹涅佐夫(1905—1950年),1937年起任列宁格勒州委、市委第二书记,卫国战争期间是波罗的海舰队、北方和列宁格勒战线军事委员会委员。1945—1946年任列宁格勒州委、市委第一书记。1946—1949年任联共(布)中央组织局委员、中央书记、干部管理部部长。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__65" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__66" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">尼 · 阿 · 沃兹涅先斯基(1903—1950年),中央政治局委员,1935—1937年任列宁格勒市计委主席、列宁格勒苏维埃执委会副主席。1937—1949年先后任苏联国家计委副主席、主席,与此同时,1939—1946年任苏联人民委员会副主席和第一副主席。1946—1949年任苏联部长会议副主席。他是苏联科学院院士。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__67" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__68" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">对这两个出身列宁格勒的干部,斯大林最后并不放心,1949—1950年制造了一个“列宁格勒案件”,以莫须有的罪名把两人杀了。<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">从此以后,斯大林再也不谈什么接班人问题,而是一心要除去身边让他不放心的合作多年的战友,其中包括莫洛托夫、伏罗希洛夫、贝利亚、米高扬等。</strong></span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__69" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__70" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">有一个说法,认为斯大林指定苏斯洛夫为接班人,说此人乃“灰衣主教”。此说缺乏令人信服的根据。要让一个人接班,是不能暗中进行的,必须授以权力,让他在公众面前亮相,争取公众的认同。这是起码的做法。很难设想,连政治局委员还都不是的一个默默无闻的“接班人”会被各界所接受。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__71" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__72" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">历史学家麦德维杰夫认为:斯大林“没有留下任何形式的政治遗嘱,也没有指定接班人”。由政治局改组成的30多人的主席团中,“没有一个人能说,或者敢说自己是斯大林的接班人”。那时真正掌握权力的是部长会议副主席马林科夫、国家安全委员会主席贝利亚和外交部长莫洛托夫,这是一个临时的“三驾马车”。即使这三个人也没有得到接班人的任命,尤其是莫洛托夫在斯大林的最后岁月中地位岌岌可危。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__73" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__74" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">斯大林逝世后的第二天,中央委员会、部长会议和苏维埃最高主席团召开联席会议,决定马林科夫任总理,把内务人民委员部和国家安全部合并,由贝利亚领导,莫洛托夫任第一副总理并恢复外交部长职务。伏罗希洛夫担任最高苏维埃主席团主席。中央委员会主席团人数减为10人,其排名次序为:马林科夫、贝利亚、莫洛托夫、伏罗希洛夫、赫鲁晓夫、布尔加宁、卡冈诺维奇、米高扬、萨布罗夫、别尔乌辛。排在第一位的马林科夫没有任何确切的证据可以证明是斯大林指定的,后来掌权的赫鲁晓夫名列第五。就是说,我们没有看到足以证明斯大林逝世后的权力更迭中存在指定接班人的文件和事实。排名第五的赫鲁晓夫过不多久就能够把排名第一的马林科夫排挤出中央书记处,而马林科夫竟然接受,这说明当时确实不清楚,到底什么职务是关键性的接班的位置。斯大林逝世前担任的职务是部长会议主席和党中央书记处书记。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__75" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__76" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">斯大林逝世后的苏共和政府领袖的最后敲定是通过党内斗争,通过各种力量的重新组合来解决的。</span></strong><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"></span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__77" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__78" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">在共产党执政的国家,最关键的位置是党的第一把手,它在不同的时候有不同的称呼。列宁时期党内没有设第一把手,列宁自己填写的职务是“中央委员”,连政治局委员的身份都没有提。他主持政治局会议,仅此而已。他的人民委员会主席的职务当然是很有分量的,但人民委员会的所有重要决策都要提交政治局讨论决定。斯大林在打倒各种反对派之后,行使权力的最高身份是总书记,总书记成为党和国家第一把手是从斯大林开始的。后来斯大林为方便发号施令,往往越过党而直接以政府首脑的身份行事。这是党政合一国家的一种简便的领导形式,但斯大林的权力首先来自党的第一把手的位置。由于控制了党,所以他能够任命莫洛托夫为人民委员会主席,也可以撤销他的这个职务,由自己担任人民委员会主席。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__79" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__80" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">这就暴露了马林科夫的一个严重失策。斯大林去世后,起初马林科夫是党政第一把手。但是不久之后,担任党的书记处书记的赫鲁晓夫以集中力量领导政府为名,设法解除了马林科夫的书记处书记的职务,这样一来本来名列第五的赫鲁晓夫很快就蹿升到党的第一把手的位置。<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">斯大林逝世后最高领导人的确立不是斯大林生前的指定或者安排的结果,而是党内各派力量斗争的结果,这包括除去贝利亚,给马林科夫削权,粉碎“莫洛托夫马林科夫反党集团”,等等。</strong></span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__81" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__82" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">赫鲁晓夫主政之后采取了一项措施,限制干部的任期,这是废除干部终身制的一项有意义的举措。他的这项措施触犯大批干部的利益,是造成众叛亲离的原因之一,赫鲁晓夫终于在党内政变中被推翻。勃列日涅夫的继任不是指定接班人的结果,这是无须论证的。甚至政变集团推举勃列日涅夫当头的时候,他还万分不情愿。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__82" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__82" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__85" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__86" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">安德罗波夫接班是暗箱操作的结果</span></span></strong></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__87" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__88" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">勃列日涅夫执政18年。他废除了赫鲁晓夫的限制干部任期的制度,许多高级干部一直连任下去而不挪窝。勃列日涅夫本人后期长期患病,实际上已经无力视事,他本人也曾有退意。1979年4月勃列日涅夫召集政治局委员开会,宣布他非常累了,打算退休。全体政治局委员都友好地表示反对,并保证要为总书记创造适当的工作条件,以便“亲爱的列昂尼德 · 伊里奇能够继续富有成果地为苏联人民和全体进步人类工作”。亲信们坚持由他主政,硬要这个病人支撑着出头露面,因为这个病人代表他们的利益,只要他不倒,党内争权的斗争就可以被压住,大家都团结在总书记周围。并且政治局委员们也没有忘记斯大林的花招——<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">斯大林多次宣布辞去全部党政职务,然后看看谁敢表示赞同。谁能保证勃列日涅夫不是玩同样的花招呢?没有人敢冒险!</strong></span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__89" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__90" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">勃列日涅夫确实也考虑过后继者的问题。法国总统德斯坦在回忆录中说,1976年间勃列日涅夫非常看好列宁格勒党组织的领导人格里戈里 · 罗曼诺夫,认为此人是整个中央委员会中最有才干的干部,如果他再多学一点,完全可以坐上总书记的交椅。但此后有传言说,他为女儿结婚动用了收藏在埃尔米塔施博物馆的沙皇家庭餐具,而其客人偏偏又打碎了其中一件。罗曼诺夫的官运就此结束。1980年5月,勃列日涅夫赏识的已经是有经验的党的机关工作者契尔年科。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__91" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__92" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">乌克兰共产党首脑谢尔比茨基是勃列日涅夫的心腹之一。有一次他向勃列日涅夫汇报乌克兰的成绩,博得勃列日涅夫欢心,于是勃列日涅夫指着自己的圈椅说:“沃洛佳,我走后你就来坐这个位置。”这个说法得到主管党的干部的伊万 · 卡皮托诺夫的证实。勃列日涅夫去世前夕,曾同他谈过话,谈话过程中勃列日涅夫指着自己的坐椅说:看到这张坐椅了吗?过几个月谢尔比茨基将坐在上面。所有的干部问题都要据此安排。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__93" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__94" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">想登上总书记宝座的大有人在。苏斯洛夫去世后,葛罗米柯就想接替苏斯洛夫登上第二把手的宝座,一旦成功,接班就有望了。但戈尔巴乔夫、乌斯季诺夫都认为应当由安德罗波夫来担任第二把手。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__95" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__96" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">安德罗波夫也为此苦心经营多年。勃列日涅夫通过政变上台后,需要巩固和加强自己的地位。时任中央国际部部长的安德罗波夫是最早表示效忠的人员之一,所以他在1967年获得重要任命,当上国家安全委员会主席的要职。安利用这个位置逐步扩展自己的权力,据说曾多次策划针对勃列日涅夫的阴谋。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__97" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__98" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">当时,契尔年科同安德罗波夫竞争得非常激烈,以至于中央全会决定安德罗波夫担任第二把手之后,契尔年科继续主持政治局会议而不撒手,直到有一天安德罗波夫搞了一场“内部政变”,径直坐到会议主席位置上才算扭转了这个不正常局面。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__99" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__100" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">1982年11月勃列日涅夫去世,党内元老乌斯季诺夫、葛罗米柯、吉洪诺夫在“小圈子”内碰过了头,决定让安德罗波夫担任中央总书记,政治局会议根据吉洪诺夫的提议,同意安德罗波夫为中央总书记的候选人,然后由中央全会正式表决通过。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__101" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__102" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">安德罗波夫在勃列日涅夫生前担任了中央书记,这也为他后来担任总书记提供了有力的保障,但是<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">最后还是幕后的“小圈子”拍板决定安德罗波夫的命运。这是一种暗箱操作,一千多万苏共党员是没有任何发言权的,即使中央委员们也没有发言权,摆在政治局委员们面前的是一个不容异议的现成方案,他们的任务仅仅是举手同意而已。</strong>这从一年后安德罗波夫去世后接班人的最后敲定可以看得非常清楚。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__103" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__104" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">元老选择了又一个病夫契尔年科</span></span></strong></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__105" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__106" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">从勃列日涅夫后期起,苏联是一个老人治国、病夫治国的国家。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__107" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__108" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">安德罗波夫虽然能干,并且想有所作为,改变国家的面貌。可惜他上台的时候身体已经不行,天不假以时日,执政一年多就离开了人世。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__109" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__110" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">安德罗波夫生前是属意戈尔巴乔夫接替他的。1983年6月苏共中央召开讨论意识形态问题的中央全会,安德罗波夫对主管意识形态的契尔年科的报告不满意,休息后直接让戈尔巴乔夫主持全会。据说,安德罗波夫曾准备另一个在1983年底中央全会上的讲话,讲话中有一段话说:</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__111" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__112" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">“鉴于自己身患重病,从国家利益出发并力求保证对党和国家的领导不致中断,总书记建议授权戈尔巴乔夫主持政治局工作。”</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__113" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__114" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">这段话在分发给会议参加者的文件中不见了。但不管怎么说,出现这样的插曲,不会事出无因的。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__115" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__116" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">安德罗波夫去世后,有几个人有可能接班:契尔年科,乌斯季诺夫,戈尔巴乔夫。戈尔巴乔夫认为75岁的乌斯季诺夫最为合适。而安德罗波夫曾属意戈尔巴乔夫,乌斯季诺夫也认为戈尔巴乔夫最合适。然而总书记刚刚逝世,党内元老葛罗米柯、乌斯季诺夫、吉洪诺夫和契尔年科便在“小圈子”内碰头商量。这是没有记录的会商,商量的情况如何,外人不得而知,连当时的中央书记戈尔巴乔夫也不知道。不过碰头后,耳背的吉洪诺夫在走廊上大嗓门的话却让许多人听到了:</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__117" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__118" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">“我认为咱们总算做对了。米哈伊尔(戈尔巴乔夫——引者注)还年轻。也拿不准他在这个位置上会怎么干。科斯佳(契尔年科——引者注)嘛,正好合适。”</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__119" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__120" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">接着的选举就是例行公事了。契尔年科宣布开会,吉洪诺夫先谈形势和党的任务,最后提议选举契尔年科担任总书记。事情就这么决定了。接替安德罗波夫管理这个大党大国的,又是一个弱不禁风、呼吸困难、气喘吁吁的病夫!</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__121" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__122" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">总书记的葬礼完毕后,戈尔巴乔夫的夫人赖莎去看望安德罗波夫的夫人,后者高声哭诉说:“为什么要选举契尔年科呀?为什么他们要这样干?尤拉(安德罗波夫——引者注)希望的可是米哈伊尔 · 谢尔盖耶维奇(戈尔巴乔夫——引者注)啊。”</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__123" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__124" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">由此可见,<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">前任总书记并没有,而且也无法指定自己的接班人,即使他有自己属意的人。这一次又是一个不为外人所知的“小圈子”的暗箱操作起了决定性作用。各种权力平衡的结果是抬出一个老朽的领袖来。</strong></span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__125" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__126" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">1984年2月14日在安德罗波夫的追悼大会上,契尔年科以新的身份讲话,正式接任了第一把手的职务,但到年底就已经彻底失去了工作能力。在这种情况下,也不作出正式决定由谁来主持政治局会议,都是临到要开会了,通知说总书记不能来了,由戈尔巴乔夫代为主持会议。这种情况一直延续到1985年3月10日契尔年科去世。</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__127" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__128" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">戈尔巴乔夫出山是“众望所归”</span></span></strong></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__129" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__130" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">契尔年科生前没有指定接班人。他逝世后,有人建议戈尔巴乔夫直接担任治丧委员会主席,从而顺理成章地接任总书记。因为这时候已经形成一种惯例,由治丧委员会主席担任未来的总书记。但是戈尔巴乔夫要求按照正常的程序来决定问题,实际上他需要赢得多数的支持,这样他才有可能大展宏图。尽管还有人觊觎总书记的职位,但是接连死去三位总书记的可悲现实,使得高层认识到再也不能这样继续下去了,这一次戈尔巴乔夫在政治局得到一致的支持。葛罗米柯率先提议戈尔巴乔夫为候选人,其他政治局委员也都表示同意。在接着召开的中央全会上,葛罗米柯受政治局的委托提议戈尔巴乔夫为中央总书记的候选人,这个建议得到全会的表决通过。十来年的老人、病夫治国,3年死去3位党和国家领导人,这时出现一个普遍的声音:“不能再这样过下去了”,苏共和国家需要新的血液,需要一个“年轻力壮”的领导人,54岁的戈尔巴乔夫应运出山。顺便说一下,列宁正是在54岁逝世的!</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__131" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__132" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">戈尔巴乔夫本人评论说:<strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">我们国家没有一个权力更迭的正常民主机制。体制在这方面迄无规定,体制按照自己的规律在运转,于是一个病入膏肓,甚至智力欠缺的人也能高踞权力金字塔的顶峰。</strong></span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__133" data-style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;" /></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__134" data-style="margin: 0em 1em; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 1px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0em 1em; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">从上述历史不难看出,苏共执政74年,但是并没有形成一个规范、民主、有序的正常的最高权力交接班制度,其接班人选是在上一届领导人身后或者经过残酷的党内斗争,或者由少数元老通过暗箱操作来决定,有时甚至是通过党内政变解决的。无论是哪种方式,广大党员群众是没有发言权、参与权和决定权的!</span></span></p><p class="js_darkmode__135" data-style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; color: #222222; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><br /></p><p class="js_darkmode__135" data-style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box !important; clear: both; color: #222222; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box !important; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; color: #888888; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 0px;">——网友推荐</span></strong></p>吴一舟http://www.blogger.com/profile/04733222055917760641noreply@blogger.com0Russia61.52401 105.31875633.213776163821151 70.162506 89.834243836178842 140.475006tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5670268195357247439.post-16978594245780357642024-03-15T01:01:00.001-07:002024-03-15T01:01:41.758-07:00陶祥:如果任由太监化泛滥,我们将没有未来(附:皇帝不除,太监不灭! )<div dir="ltr"><p style="border:0px none;list-style:outside none none;padding:0px;font-family:宋体;font-size:14.8px;text-align:justify;margin:0px 0px 24px;outline:0px;max-width:100%;clear:both;min-height:1em;box-sizing:border-box"><span style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><font color="#666666"><span style="font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,"Helvetica Neue","PingFang SC","Hiragino Sans GB","Microsoft YaHei UI","Microsoft YaHei",Arial,sans-serif;font-size:0px;letter-spacing:0.544px;text-align:start"> </span><span class="gmail-rich_media_meta gmail-rich_media_meta_text" style="margin:0px 10px 10px 0px;padding:0px;outline:0px;display:inline-block;vertical-align:middle;font-size:15px;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,"Helvetica Neue","PingFang SC","Hiragino Sans GB","Microsoft YaHei UI","Microsoft YaHei",Arial,sans-serif;letter-spacing:0.544px;text-align:start"><span role="link" tabindex="0" id="gmail-js_author_name" class="gmail-wx_tap_link gmail-js_wx_tap_highlight gmail-weui-wa-hotarea" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;outline:0px">陶祥</span></span><span style="font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,"Helvetica Neue","PingFang SC","Hiragino Sans GB","Microsoft YaHei UI","Microsoft YaHei",Arial,sans-serif;font-size:0px;letter-spacing:0.544px;text-align:start"> </span><span class="gmail-rich_media_meta gmail-rich_media_meta_nickname" id="gmail-profileBt" style="margin:0px 10px 10px 0px;padding:0px;outline:0px;display:inline-block;vertical-align:middle;font-size:15px;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,"Helvetica Neue","PingFang SC","Hiragino Sans GB","Microsoft YaHei UI","Microsoft YaHei",Arial,sans-serif;letter-spacing:0.544px;text-align:start"><a class="gmail-wx_tap_link gmail-js_wx_tap_highlight gmail-weui-wa-hotarea" id="gmail-js_name" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;outline:0px">销售辅导陶祥</a></span><span style="font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,"Helvetica Neue","PingFang SC","Hiragino Sans GB","Microsoft YaHei UI","Microsoft YaHei",Arial,sans-serif;font-size:0px;letter-spacing:0.544px;text-align:start"> </span><span id="gmail-meta_content_hide_info" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;outline:0px;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,"Helvetica Neue","PingFang SC","Hiragino Sans GB","Microsoft YaHei UI","Microsoft YaHei",Arial,sans-serif;font-size:0px;letter-spacing:0.544px;text-align:start"><span id="gmail-publish_time" class="gmail-rich_media_meta gmail-rich_media_meta_text" style="margin:0px 10px 10px 0px;padding:0px;outline:0px;display:inline-block;vertical-align:middle;font-size:15px">2023-10-12 09:01</span> <span id="gmail-js_ip_wording_wrp" class="gmail-rich_media_meta gmail-rich_media_meta_text" role="option" aria-labelledby="js_a11y_op_ip_wording js_ip_wording" style="margin:0px 10px 10px 0px;padding:0px;outline:0px;display:inline-block;vertical-align:middle;font-size:15px"><span id="gmail-js_a11y_op_ip_wording" aria-hidden="true" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;outline:0px;outline-color:initial;outline-style:initial"></span><span aria-hidden="true" id="gmail-js_ip_wording" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;outline:0px">云南</span></span></span></font></span><br></p><p style="border:0px none;list-style:outside none none;padding:0px;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:宋体;font-size:14.8px;text-align:justify;background-color:rgb(255,254,249);margin:0px 0px 24px;outline:0px;max-width:100%;clear:both;min-height:1em;box-sizing:border-box">文 | 原创 陶祥</p><p style="border:0px none;list-style:outside none none;padding:0px;font-family:宋体;text-align:justify;background-color:rgb(255,254,249);margin:0px 0px 24px;outline:0px;max-width:100%;clear:both;min-height:1em;box-sizing:border-box"><font color="#000000" style="" size="4">人人都圆滑世故得流油,我们似乎每天都被一群"灵魂太监"包围。她们是一群风情万种的"阴阳人",她们是生活中的山猫野猴爬树精,八面玲珑却左右逢源,当面是人背后做鬼。</font></p><p style="border:0px none;list-style:outside none none;padding:0px;font-family:宋体;text-align:justify;background-color:rgb(255,254,249);margin:0px 0px 24px;outline:0px;max-width:100%;clear:both;min-height:1em;box-sizing:border-box"><font color="#000000" size="4">没有人格,不负责任地讨好强权;没有是非,不择手段捞取利益;没有理想,不利国家而寄生于社会。</font></p><p style="border:0px none;list-style:outside none none;padding:0px;font-family:宋体;text-align:justify;background-color:rgb(255,254,249);margin:0px 0px 24px;outline:0px;max-width:100%;clear:both;min-height:1em;box-sizing:border-box"><font color="#000000" size="4">封建王朝的太监被蔑称为"阉人"绝非因为仅仅被"阉割了生殖器"那么简单,他们"以主子为中心,夹着尾巴做人"的人生信条才是诟病的中心。</font></p><p style="border:0px none;list-style:outside none none;padding:0px;font-family:宋体;text-align:justify;background-color:rgb(255,254,249);margin:0px 0px 24px;outline:0px;max-width:100%;clear:both;min-height:1em;box-sizing:border-box"><font color="#000000" size="4">太监人格的基本特征是:颠倒黑白,不认公理不顾常识,不分是非而只看权力。谁的权力大谁就是正确的,谁最凶残就崇拜谁。</font></p><p style="border:0px none;list-style:outside none none;padding:0px;font-family:宋体;text-align:justify;background-color:rgb(255,254,249);margin:0px 0px 24px;outline:0px;max-width:100%;clear:both;min-height:1em;box-sizing:border-box"><font color="#000000" size="4">太监人格的唯一任务就是"一切为主子服务"。即使主子吐出几句自己都不明白的胡话,他们也能马上博引旁证,利用逻辑和各种事例,完美无缺的证明主子所说是绝对真理,而且无懈可击。</font></p><p style="border:0px none;list-style:outside none none;padding:0px;font-family:宋体;text-align:justify;background-color:rgb(255,254,249);margin:0px 0px 24px;outline:0px;max-width:100%;clear:both;min-height:1em;box-sizing:border-box"><font color="#000000" size="4">这种以主子为中心的太监人格,把人类的一切知识变成了证明主子英明的工具。人性被扭曲并向恶的方向发展。太监们最懂得观察和利用她的主子的弱点,并千方百计地有意扩大这种弱点。</font></p><p style="border:0px none;list-style:outside none none;padding:0px;font-family:宋体;text-align:justify;background-color:rgb(255,254,249);margin:0px 0px 24px;outline:0px;max-width:100%;clear:both;min-height:1em;box-sizing:border-box"><font color="#000000" size="4">此类讨好型人格的人很擅长此类的行事方法。</font></p><p style="border:0px none;list-style:outside none none;padding:0px;font-family:宋体;text-align:justify;background-color:rgb(255,254,249);margin:0px 0px 24px;outline:0px;max-width:100%;clear:both;min-height:1em;box-sizing:border-box"><font color="#000000" size="4">王孙贾问曰:'与其媚于奥,宁媚于灶',何谓也?" 这王孙贾是谁呢?是卫国的一个大臣。然后孔子有一段时间周游列国,去到了卫国。然后卫国当时的情况是"子见南子,子路不悦",就是南子长得很漂亮,但是名声不太好。但是南子当时,掌握着朝廷上的很多权力。<br style="margin:0px;padding:0px;outline:0px;max-width:100%;box-sizing:border-box"> <br style="margin:0px;padding:0px;outline:0px;max-width:100%;box-sizing:border-box">所以王孙贾有一天跑来问孔子,说什么呢?"'与其媚于奥,宁媚于灶',何谓也?"他表面上看起来是向子请教,说,"与其媚于奥","奥"是什么呢?"奥"是一个屋子的主神。然后"宁媚于灶",你还不如去取悦灶神,"媚"就是取悦,你向谁求祷呢?你整天向屋子的主神求祷,还不如去贿赂灶王爷,灶王爷上天言好事,下地降吉祥。<br style="margin:0px;padding:0px;outline:0px;max-width:100%;box-sizing:border-box"> <br style="margin:0px;padding:0px;outline:0px;max-width:100%;box-sizing:border-box">所以他就请教孔子,这句话什么意思孔子一听就明白了。孔子说"不然",说这话不对。为什么?"获罪于天,无所祷也",如果你所做的事获罪于天,你做的事根本就不对,你是违反天命的,你向谁祈祷都没用。</font></p><p style="border:0px none;list-style:outside none none;padding:0px;font-family:宋体;text-align:justify;background-color:rgb(255,254,249);margin:0px 0px 24px;outline:0px;max-width:100%;clear:both;min-height:1em;box-sizing:border-box"><font color="#000000" size="4">这里边暗含的含义是什么?王孙贾其实是来提醒孔子。你整天跟卫灵公打交道,卫灵公什么人?"奥",就是国家的主神。你整天希望说服卫灵公,你希望让他来支持你,他现在都不当权。真正当权的是南子这样的人,是老婆当政,这是灶神。你应该多做下边人的工作,这样才有利于你推行你的想法。你看是教他歪门邪道,教他办事的方法。<br style="margin:0px;padding:0px;outline:0px;max-width:100%;box-sizing:border-box"> <br style="margin:0px;padding:0px;outline:0px;max-width:100%;box-sizing:border-box">然后孔子说,不对,说这事不对,"获罪于天,无所祷也"。孔子认为名正言顺是很重要的。"名不正则言不顺,言不顺则礼乐不兴",这等等一系列的推理过程。</font></p><p style="border:0px none;list-style:outside none none;padding:0px;font-family:宋体;text-align:justify;background-color:rgb(255,254,249);margin:0px 0px 24px;outline:0px;max-width:100%;clear:both;min-height:1em;box-sizing:border-box"><font color="#000000" size="4">孔子认为这个世界上有两种秩序,一种叫自然规律,一种叫社会规律。王孙贾所说的东西,可能是社会规律。就是在这儿谁说了算我向谁贿赂,我能够怎么样,看起来你能够短期之内获得收益。<br style="margin:0px;padding:0px;outline:0px;max-width:100%;box-sizing:border-box"> <br style="margin:0px;padding:0px;outline:0px;max-width:100%;box-sizing:border-box">但是孔子认为真正长期起到作用的一定是自然规律。</font></p><p style="border:0px none;list-style:outside none none;padding:0px;font-family:宋体;text-align:justify;background-color:rgb(255,254,249);margin:0px 0px 24px;outline:0px;max-width:100%;clear:both;min-height:1em;box-sizing:border-box"><font color="#000000" size="4">但是长期看一定是自然规则去做的,这就是孔子所说的"获罪于天,无所祷也"。如果你去做这样歪门邪道的事,你从下边去贿赂,去搞定这些人。然后想办法来达到一些目的的话,真的受到上天惩罚的时候无所祷也,你跟谁求告都没有用。</font></p><p style="border:0px none;list-style:outside none none;padding:0px;font-family:宋体;text-align:justify;background-color:rgb(255,254,249);margin:0px 0px 24px;outline:0px;max-width:100%;clear:both;min-height:1em;box-sizing:border-box"><font color="#000000" size="4">如今,<strong style="margin:0px;max-width:100%;outline:0px;padding:0px;box-sizing:border-box">很多的大厂管理层就是这样一种太监化泛滥的的局面,为了自己的一己之利,谄媚于上司,对下属却是百般的刁难,为了达到自己的目的,忘记了商业道德,造成公司的产品市场份额丢失,客户流失。</strong></font></p><p style="border:0px none;list-style:outside none none;padding:0px;font-family:宋体;text-align:justify;background-color:rgb(255,254,249);margin:0px 0px 24px;outline:0px;max-width:100%;clear:both;min-height:1em;box-sizing:border-box"><font color="#000000" style="" size="4">短期获取到的经济利益,却损失了长期稳定的发展,太监们干的事情只是为了自己,最终也会毁灭公司和自己,别忘了,人在做,天在看。</font></p><p style="border:0px none;list-style:outside none none;padding:0px;font-family:宋体;text-align:justify;background-color:rgb(255,254,249);margin:0px 0px 24px;outline:0px;max-width:100%;clear:both;min-height:1em;box-sizing:border-box"><font color="#000000" style="" size="4">附:</font></p><p style="text-align:center;border:0px none;list-style:outside none none;padding:0px;font-family:宋体;background-color:rgb(255,254,249);margin:0px 0px 24px;outline:0px;max-width:100%;clear:both;min-height:1em;box-sizing:border-box"><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",Tahoma,Verdana,STHeiTi,simsun,sans-serif;font-size:22px;text-align:left"><b style=""><font color="#0000ff"><a href="https://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/80238/202403/15119.html">皇帝不除,太监不灭!</a></font></b></span> <span style="background-color:transparent;color:rgb(19,19,19);font-family:roboto,sans-serif;font-size:10.5pt"><br></span></p><p style="border:0px none;list-style:outside none none;padding:0px;font-family:宋体;text-align:justify;background-color:rgb(255,254,249);margin:0px 0px 24px;outline:0px;max-width:100%;clear:both;min-height:1em;box-sizing:border-box"><span style="background-color:transparent;font-family:roboto,sans-serif"><font size="4" style="" color="#000000">部分微信评论</font></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="border:0px none;list-style:outside none none;padding:10px 0px;font-family:宋体;background-color:rgb(255,254,249);line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span id="gmail-docs-internal-guid-bb64cb50-7fff-6272-c989-7bd8ac82409a"><span style="background-color:transparent;font-family:roboto,sans-serif;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;vertical-align:baseline"><font size="4" color="#000000">没写透,问题不在太监,在皇帝!因为有了皇帝才产生了太监,皇帝不除,太监不灭!</font></span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="border:0px none;list-style:outside none none;padding:10px 0px;font-family:宋体;background-color:rgb(255,254,249);line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span id="gmail-docs-internal-guid-bb64cb50-7fff-6272-c989-7bd8ac82409a"><span style="background-color:transparent;font-family:roboto,sans-serif;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;vertical-align:baseline"><font size="4" color="#000000">看看评论区都说了些什么呀!一个个也就敢在评论区龌龊一下,现实中大概率既当不成太监,又不敢什么正直的人,就这么一直扭巴着</font></span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="border:0px none;list-style:outside none none;padding:10px 0px;font-family:宋体;background-color:rgb(255,254,249);line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span id="gmail-docs-internal-guid-bb64cb50-7fff-6272-c989-7bd8ac82409a"><span style="background-color:transparent;font-family:roboto,sans-serif;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;vertical-align:baseline"><font size="4" color="#000000">还真是,一群扭巴的人正在培养下一代,说要要让自己的下一代成为正直的人,你觉得现实吗?</font></span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="border:0px none;list-style:outside none none;padding:10px 0px;font-family:宋体;background-color:rgb(255,254,249);line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span id="gmail-docs-internal-guid-bb64cb50-7fff-6272-c989-7bd8ac82409a" style=""><span style="background-color:transparent;font-family:roboto,sans-serif;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;vertical-align:baseline"><font size="4" style="" color="#000000">这里的人都在羡慕那些奴才</font></span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="border:0px none;list-style:outside none none;padding:10px 0px;font-family:宋体;background-color:rgb(255,254,249);line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><br></p></div> NCNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16079153443162336173noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5670268195357247439.post-4458503217295796012024-03-15T00:42:00.001-07:002024-03-15T00:42:54.027-07:00陶傑:奧斯卡頒獎禮一年衰過一年<div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail-xdj266r gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" style="" color="#000000">(作者臉書,标題转贴所加)</font></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" style="" color="#000000"><br></font></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" style="" color="#000000">奧斯卡頒獎典禮得獎的羅拔唐尼(Robert Downey Jr.)和愛瑪史東(Emma Stone),領獎時對兩名亞裔頒獎者關繼威、楊紫瓊疑慘遭「區別對待」,一個被無視、一個被疑似掠奪小金人頒獎權,社交媒體引起爭議,不少網民抨擊羅拔唐尼及愛瑪史東不禮貌、歧視亞裔等;荷里活與美國社會對亞裔長久以來的廣泛歧視也再次成為熱門話題。</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" color="#000000">奧斯卡、荷里活、美國學界近年刻意製造的所謂政治正確風氣,表面大愛包容,向亞裔分發配額(quota allocation),「自由派」(liberals ) 在關鍵時刻還是露出種族主義的內核,證實本人的判斷。</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" color="#000000">關繼威事件眾目睽睽,無可抵賴。楊紫瓊案則辯稱:「我想和你最好的朋友珍妮花一起分享頒獎的輝煌時刻」,所以讓給她人來頒。</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" color="#000000"><span style="font-family:inherit"><a tabindex="-1" style="font-family:inherit"></a></span>種種的辯解,令人觀感是事後補鑊的演戲。何況即使真的全無歧視成份,所說屬實,也毫無體統。</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" color="#000000">頒獎就是頒獎,只能由一個有威望的前輩,頒發給一位後進。這是頒獎的基本準則。現在每一獎項都平頒,擠上來一大堆閒雜人搶風頭,奧斯卡和荷里活何時開始變成小圈子阿貓阿狗嘻嘻哈哈自我炫耀的party?圍爐自high的人,他們的私人恩怨與觀眾沒有關係,小圈子的種種in-jokes ,既不有趣,外人也不明白。我早已經說過:奧斯卡頒獎禮,小家子嚴重,戲碼一年衰過一年,年前出現台上的掌摑鬧劇,今年則有一名裸男上台,一群馬戲班穿上彩服的猴子,不值得看。</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" color="#000000">左膠就是小器、小家子、小心眼而又自我(ego)龐大喧嘩的一群。</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" color="#000000">美國亞裔的處境不如非洲裔,他們許多人自己心知肚明。左膠雖然在政治上製造許多所謂「平等機會」,美國許多華人的所謂身份危機,層次豐富、痛楚精緻,痛苦在於投票既要支持拜登、跟潮流大駡川普,又要向他們在中國或香港的大鄉里或朋輩顯示自己屬於「主流社會」,這種情意結,非常詭異,其歧視之感受,如鞋子穿在腳上,是鬆是緊,穿小鞋的人自己才知道。在外面的中國人不明白。</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" color="#000000">早知如此,兩人主演的「他媽的多元宇宙」,垃圾戲一齣,去年卻又囊括獎項,又是什麼偽善的遊戲?</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" color="#000000">不過在亞裔之中,韓裔和日裔背後分別都有一個有尊嚴的文明祖國之源,問題不大。另外一支,其文化血緣相同的祖國,又是新冠病毒、又是戰狼、又是芬太尼,形象低劣,處境當然特別痛苦。</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" color="#000000">關繼威是越南華裔,楊紫瓊則是馬來西亞人,嚴格而論,兩人都不應得到這種待遇。只能說荷里活的這些名利圈中人,傲慢中太無知了。</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit"><font size="4" style="" color="#000000">難怪川普要出來收拾此爛局。</font></div></div><div class="gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-x1vvkbs gmail-xtlvy1s gmail-x126k92a" style="margin:0.5em 0px 0px;font-family:"Segoe UI Historic","Segoe UI",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(5,5,5);font-size:15px"><div dir="auto" style="font-family:inherit">陶傑披藏:<span style="font-family:inherit"><a class="gmail-x1i10hfl gmail-xjbqb8w gmail-x1ejq31n gmail-xd10rxx gmail-x1sy0etr gmail-x17r0tee gmail-x972fbf gmail-xcfux6l gmail-x1qhh985 gmail-xm0m39n gmail-x9f619 gmail-x1ypdohk gmail-xt0psk2 gmail-xe8uvvx gmail-xdj266r gmail-x11i5rnm gmail-xat24cr gmail-x1mh8g0r gmail-xexx8yu gmail-x4uap5 gmail-x18d9i69 gmail-xkhd6sd gmail-x16tdsg8 gmail-x1hl2dhg gmail-xggy1nq gmail-x1a2a7pz gmail-xt0b8zv gmail-x1fey0fg" href="https://patreon.com/tokitchannel?fbclid=IwAR1JW3DjkNJgrtzJ-cKbzE8qFswB_v1HIK5R4fwTY9Y_DWtKH44R0M36IXA" rel="nofollow noreferrer" role="link" tabindex="0" target="_blank" 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NCNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16079153443162336173noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5670268195357247439.post-23699960874144673032024-03-15T00:28:00.000-07:002024-03-15T00:28:01.505-07:00北彦:两会落幕,中共韧性不再,命运全系个人<p> 北彦 VOA 【华北雁塘】20240313</p><p><br /></p><div class="wsw" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 16px; word-break: break-word;"><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">2024年的北京两会终于结束了。虽然如许多人的预期,这次两会无新闻,就像西线无战事一般死寂,但是会前会后都爆出了大新闻,暗示着北京政局在两会前后的风向。<br style="box-sizing: inherit;" /><br style="box-sizing: inherit;" />头一桩是“人大”在开会前一天宣布取消会后的总理记者会,后一桩则发生在“两会”结束后,河北燕郊一起疑似地铁施工引发的天然气管道大爆炸。不过,在“两会”结束后,这些插曲似的爆炸都改变不了北京政局已经陷入的长久死寂。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><strong style="box-sizing: inherit;">“两会”的鸵鸟政策</strong><br style="box-sizing: inherit;" /><br style="box-sizing: inherit;" />这种正在成为新常态的政治“死寂”,在当下中国有多种面相,各界都抱着从未有过的恐慌关注着。在经济界,进入三月,人们已经不再争论是通缩还是通涨,地产价格全面崩塌,人民消费紧缩,投资萎缩,各种信心指数都在负面区间。经济通缩反映的社会各阶层的新共识,就是对前景的悲观和对当下体制的不满,人民在高压下以各种无声方式做出了“不”的选择。<br style="box-sizing: inherit;" /><br style="box-sizing: inherit;" />在政策制定领域,“两会”同样展现了中国政治精英的集体躺平。不仅一周会期内,几乎没有代表、委员因应时局提出针对性的、有力度的改革建议,也未通过热议中的《民营经济促进法》,而且作为经济总管的总理在取消会后记者会后,甚至还取消了会后将在钓鱼台宾馆进行的年度国际企业家会面。中国的政治精英们在危机时刻选择了自欺欺人的鸵鸟政策。<br style="box-sizing: inherit;" /><br style="box-sizing: inherit;" />这一切发展都像极了1980年代初期的苏联和东欧,人民只能麻醉于酒精,年轻人则寻求一点点摇滚乐和牛仔裤的快乐,在毫无希望的等待中湮没在僵化体<br style="box-sizing: inherit;" /><br style="box-sizing: inherit;" />制中。那时的苏东人民并不知道轰然倒塌的最后时刻究竟什么时候到来。而当下中国则不然,无论是国际社会,还是经历过“前后三十年”阶级斗争和改革开放的人们,都能意识到中国政治的转变,既是根本的,又是难以持续的。这是北京鸵鸟政策的根源,也是结果。</span></p><div data-inline="False" data-owner-ct="Article" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><div class="media-block also-read" style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(58, 121, 183); box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.05) 0px 1px 5px, rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.05) 0px 1px 5px; box-sizing: inherit; clear: none; display: flow-root; margin: 0px 0px 24px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 12px; position: relative;"><a class="img-wrap img-wrap--size-3 also-read__img" href="https://www.voachinese.com/a/china-amends-the-organic-law-of-the-state-council-of-the-prc-20240307/7517874.html" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: block; float: left; position: relative; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation; width: 219.016px;" title="中国修改国务院组织法 分析:习近平大权独揽更甚毛泽东"><span class="thumb thumb16_9" style="background-color: #f6f7f8; background-image: url("../img/image-placeholder.svg"); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat; box-sizing: inherit; contain: content; display: block; height: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding-bottom: 123.188px; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-size: medium;"><img alt="中国领导人习近平在北京人大会堂出席全国人大会议开幕式。(2024年3月4日)" class=" enhanced" data-src="https://gdb.voanews.com/01000000-c0a8-0242-7597-08dc3ec51691_cx0_cy9_cw0_w100_r1.jpg" src="https://gdb.voanews.com/01000000-c0a8-0242-7597-08dc3ec51691_cx0_cy9_cw0_w256_r1.jpg" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; opacity: 1; padding: 0px; transition: opacity 0.5s ease-in-out 0s; width: 219.016px;" /></span></span></a><div class="media-block__content also-read__body also-read__body--h" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0px 234.656px; padding: 0px;"><a href="https://www.voachinese.com/a/china-amends-the-organic-law-of-the-state-council-of-the-prc-20240307/7517874.html" style="box-sizing: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" title="中国修改国务院组织法 分析:习近平大权独揽更甚毛泽东"><span style="color: black;"><span class="also-read__text--label" style="box-sizing: inherit; text-transform: uppercase;">请同时参阅:</span><h4 class="media-block__title media-block__title--size-3 also-read__text p-0" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-weight: normal; line-height: 1.3875; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">中国修改国务院组织法 分析:习近平大权独揽更甚毛泽东</h4></span></a></div></div></div><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><strong style="box-sizing: inherit;">体制“韧性”转僵硬</strong><br style="box-sizing: inherit;" /><br style="box-sizing: inherit;" />首先,最大、最根本的变化,来自中国体制韧性的消失。换言之,从中共“二十大”到今年“两会”、或者未来不定的“二十大三中全会”,外界更关心的,多集中在中共1970年代末改革开放路线的终结、或者1992年以来市场经济的终结,但是,从2012年以来过去十二年中共政治体制的最大变化,莫过于一个曾经被誉为“韧性”体制(resilient system)的消亡。这远比改开终结或者已经开始的经济大萧条更能说明中共体制目前的鸵鸟政策,也更能昭示中共在不远未来的结局。<br style="box-sizing: inherit;" /><br style="box-sizing: inherit;" />所谓体制韧性,是哥伦比亚大学中国通黎安友教授在2008年北京奥运前提出的概念,算是较早地指出了中共向民主转型道路上难以去除的巨大障碍,即中共的存在本身,尤其在江、胡时期所表现出的强大的学习能力和自适应能力,不仅能够适应融入全球化的进程,而且善于调整自己、巩固政权,渡过同期颜色革命的冲击。<br style="box-sizing: inherit;" /><br style="box-sizing: inherit;" />也部分基于此,美国政界在随后逐渐放弃了对中国的幻觉,一个从1970年代初甚至更早能追溯到乔治.凯南(George Frost Kennan)时代对中国有别于苏联的粉色幻觉。在奥巴马总统任内后期逐渐形成对华强硬共识至今,并且准备不惜任何手段与这个具有强大体制韧性的中共政权进行长期竞争,即一场不宣布的新冷战。<br style="box-sizing: inherit;" /><br style="box-sizing: inherit;" />然而,在今年“两会”上,人们看到的却是这个体制无所作为,唯一做的就是在讲不搞西方式现代化的同时要搞所谓中国特色的现代化,在严重生产过剩、面临总危机爆发的时刻继续强调制造业和空洞的“新质生产力”,后者在与全球化脱钩、被欧美怀疑的情形下几乎只有“自嗨”的价值,而不具任何国家竞争力的意义。<br style="box-sizing: inherit;" /><br style="box-sizing: inherit;" />只要任何熟悉纳粹时代的人都能明白,这些话语和纳粹上台前后“不要共产主义、不要资本主义、只要德国特色”的虚无主义几乎没有任何区别。如果有区别,那么只能说在诸多“既要又要还要”的最高指示下,中共领导人在追求富国强兵的同时似乎完全放弃了纳粹时代追求全面就业、增进社会福利的起码社会目标。</span></p><div data-inline="False" data-owner-ct="Article" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><div class="media-block also-read" style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(58, 121, 183); box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.05) 0px 1px 5px, rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.05) 0px 1px 5px; box-sizing: inherit; clear: none; display: flow-root; margin: 0px 0px 24px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 12px; position: relative;"><a class="img-wrap img-wrap--size-3 also-read__img" href="https://www.voachinese.com/a/china-concluded-its-annual-two-sessions-in-beijing-20240311/7523055.html" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: block; float: left; position: relative; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation; width: 219.016px;" title="中国两会闭幕 分析: “政治橱窗”凸显习近平独裁"><span class="thumb thumb16_9" style="background-color: #f6f7f8; background-image: url("../img/image-placeholder.svg"); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat; box-sizing: inherit; contain: content; display: block; height: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding-bottom: 123.188px; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-size: medium;"><img alt="资料照片: 2024年3月11日习近平出席全国人民代表大会闭幕会议" class=" enhanced" data-src="https://gdb.voanews.com/01000000-c0a8-0242-1401-08dc41d43eee_cx0_cy10_cw0_w100_r1.jpg" src="https://gdb.voanews.com/01000000-c0a8-0242-1401-08dc41d43eee_cx0_cy10_cw0_w256_r1.jpg" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; opacity: 1; padding: 0px; transition: opacity 0.5s ease-in-out 0s; width: 219.016px;" /></span></span></a><div class="media-block__content also-read__body also-read__body--h" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 0px 234.656px; padding: 0px;"><a href="https://www.voachinese.com/a/china-concluded-its-annual-two-sessions-in-beijing-20240311/7523055.html" style="box-sizing: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" title="中国两会闭幕 分析: “政治橱窗”凸显习近平独裁"><span style="color: black;"><span class="also-read__text--label" style="box-sizing: inherit; text-transform: uppercase;">请同时参阅:</span><h4 class="media-block__title media-block__title--size-3 also-read__text p-0" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-weight: normal; line-height: 1.3875; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">中国两会闭幕 分析: “政治橱窗”凸显习近平独裁</h4></span></a></div></div></div><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><strong style="box-sizing: inherit;">一人党的危险</strong><br style="box-sizing: inherit;" /><br style="box-sizing: inherit;" />或许正是在这个意义上,中国各阶层人民才从未像今天那么清醒。他们很容易就看清,这个体制曾经具有的灵活和务实也就是体制韧性的核心,经过十余年的党内清洗和社会清洗已经当然无存。<br style="box-sizing: inherit;" /><br style="box-sizing: inherit;" />以至于,在今年“两会”上,人们看到的是一个人的政治舞台,五千余名政治精英唯唯诺诺、战战兢兢,形同政治僵尸,与中共历史上关键复苏时代所呈现的生动活泼、批评与自我批评、解放思想等善于自我纠错的传统和机制都彻底决裂。这才是决定中共未来政治命运的关键。<br style="box-sizing: inherit;" /><br style="box-sizing: inherit;" />更关键的,这也意味着中共不再是一个集一个庞大精英群体智慧和能力的政党,而是如同芯片竞争中处于的下风,或者苏联1980年代的僵化,不仅国家,而且整个政党都愈来愈紧密地与其领袖个人相连,而不再由列宁主义政党的集体智慧或者哪怕党内残酷斗争结果所产生的政党路线来决定。中共正在加<br style="box-sizing: inherit;" /><br style="box-sizing: inherit;" />速变成一个个人党,也就是普京模式的个人党和私人国家。党内政治精英和九千万党员变成了无足轻重的附属。<br style="box-sizing: inherit;" /><br style="box-sizing: inherit;" />然后,中共未来的气数也就越来越紧密地与领袖个人的意志、健康、智力、和判断相绑定。如此一来,在经过了十余年的权力转型和巩固后,对中共来说,剩下的时间并不多了,能够做出的选项也越来越少。而它所面对的竞争对手,却是从沉睡中苏醒过来的民主世界,就像经过两年俄乌战争后的欧洲,譬如最近法国总统马克龙的政治宣言所显示的无所畏惧。<br style="box-sizing: inherit;" /><br style="box-sizing: inherit;" />只能说,在中国一片死寂的政治气氛中,在“两会”的中共政治精英们的集体鸵鸟症候中,中国的未来全系个人,而世界形势已经逆转。</span></p></div><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><div class="c-author c-author--hlight" style="background: rgb(232, 234, 236); box-sizing: inherit; margin: 16px 0px 0px; padding: 16px;"><div class="media-block" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; position: relative;"><a class="img-wrap img-wrap--xs img-wrap--float img-wrap--t-spac" href="https://www.voachinese.com/author/%E5%8C%97%E5%BD%A6/vmitt" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #3a79b7; display: block; float: left; margin-bottom: 12px; margin-right: 10px; margin-top: 12px; position: relative; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation; width: 105.016px;"><div class="thumb thumb1_1 rounded" style="background-color: white; background-image: url("../img/image-placeholder.svg"); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat; border-radius: 50%; box-sizing: inherit; contain: content; font-size: 0px; height: 0px; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 0px 105.016px; text-align: center;"><img alt="16x9 Image" class="avatar enhanced" data-src="https://gdb.voanews.com/57FEF3AC-E2B3-40B2-9521-0BE0E8D5DD4C_w100_r5.png" src="https://gdb.voanews.com/57FEF3AC-E2B3-40B2-9521-0BE0E8D5DD4C_w144_r5.png" style="background-color: #a1aab4; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; opacity: 1; padding: 0px; transition: opacity 0.5s ease-in-out 0s; width: 105.016px;" /></div></a><div class="c-author__content" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><h4 class="media-block__title media-block__title--author" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size: 20px; font-weight: normal; line-height: 1.3875; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 12px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.voachinese.com/author/%E5%8C%97%E5%BD%A6/vmitt" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(203, 209, 214); box-sizing: inherit; color: #4d5a67; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;">北彦</a></h4><div class="wsw c-author__wsw" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 16px; word-break: break-word;"><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">中国政治学者,出于安全考量,作者使用笔名发表文章。</p></div></div></div></div></li></ul>吴一舟http://www.blogger.com/profile/04733222055917760641noreply@blogger.com0Beijing, China39.904211 116.40739511.593977163821151 81.251145 68.214444836178842 151.563645tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5670268195357247439.post-21341359289769996462024-03-14T01:08:00.000-07:002024-03-15T01:10:18.539-07:00喻智官:莫言“宣言”——我是犬儒我怕谁?<p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-align: center;">作者:</span><span style="font-family: FangSong; font-size: 15pt; font-weight: 700; text-align: center; white-space-collapse: preserve;">喻智官</span></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-1bca3ead-7fff-6654-c1e1-062e108f8cab"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: FangSong; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: FangSong; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">莫言非“莫言”</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 29.8pt;"><span style="font-family: FangSong; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">莫言获诺贝尔文学奖,给死乞白赖的中国文学扎了一针鸡血,连负责严控文化宣传的中共政治局常委李长春都高调出面祝贺,二零一二年的诺贝尔文学奖颁奖成了中国文学的嘉华年会。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 29.8pt;"><span style="font-family: FangSong; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">中共不会看错人,莫言是值得褒奖的,他历年的表现早已记录在案,有目共睹。二零零九年法兰克福书展上,戴晴等异议作家发言时莫言毫不犹豫地退席;二零一零年,被问及如何看待诺贝尔和平奖得主获刑时,莫言以闭口“莫言”作答;今年受邀抄写《在延安文艺座谈会上的讲话》,莫言慨然应允挥笔抒情。综上所说,莫言党性过硬,经得起考验,是称职的作协副主席。莫言还写过“唱红打黑声势隆,举国翘首望重庆”赞美薄熙来,如果薄熙来哪天翻盘回潮,莫言照样政治正确,更会文运亨通。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 29.8pt;"><span style="font-family: FangSong; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">许多人据此调侃中国的“莫言”得奖了,欣喜若狂的莫言不以为意,开始滔滔不绝地给予回应。他深知用诺贝尔奖(奖励有理想倾向的作品)评比标准衡量,自己一身软肋,处处污垢,就心虚又沾沾自喜地宣称,“诺贝尔文学奖是文学奖,不是政治奖”,自己得奖“是文学的胜利”。可惜,说这话时莫言忘了,十年前另一位华人异议作家得诺贝尔文学奖时,中国政府谴责评委会是“出于别有用心的政治动机”,他所在的中国作协指责颁奖“有其政治目的”,当时他怎么不站出来反驳,“这是文学奖不是政治奖!”更有甚者,莫言还借机为中共的新闻出版管制张目,鼓吹现在的中国“是一个可以自由言说的时代”,并奴性十足地说“绝对自由出不了好作品。”此谓一举两得,既为中共治下的绝对不自由辩护,又通过肯定创作环境嘉许自己作品的价值。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 29.8pt;"><span style="font-family: FangSong; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">谁说他“莫言”,他为主子圆场的话说得十分乖巧,可见,莫言非“莫言”。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: FangSong; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">在颁奖礼中继续为中共代言</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 29.8pt;"><span style="font-family: FangSong; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">莫言这样言说并不意外,十年前,他在接受凤凰台记者的采访时就坦言,“我走上文学动机不纯,想写本书卖了,能一天三顿都吃饺子,没想到过要替人民说话。”如今他当上作协副主席,是党给了他能天天吃饺子的厚禄,他理当为党说话。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 29.8pt;"><span style="font-family: FangSong; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">也许在得意之际忘了形,莫言不慎失言,漏出一句出格话:“希望刘晓波早日出狱”。有人善意地对此过度解读,以为过去莫言为吃体制饭,不得已说了违心话,做了违心事,如今得诺奖了,不在乎政府的压力,将在颁奖典礼及未来籍自己的独特身份勇敢发声了。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 29.8pt;"><span style="font-family: FangSong; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">然而,人们高估了莫言的良知,殷殷的期待落了空。莫言在颁奖活动中的表现毫不含糊地昭示“你们看错了人!”他还是那个作协副主席,还要保持自己的原有本色,秉持自己的坚定立场,不辱维护党国利益的使命。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 29.8pt;"><span style="font-family: FangSong; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">在回答记者的各种提问和演讲中,莫言有备而来侃侃而谈。为撇清得到中共高层赞扬带来的负面影响,他强调,诺贝尔文学奖是给个人的荣誉,不是颁给中国文学,更不是颁给一个国家。话音未落,他在答谢词中又承认,“如果没有三十多年来中国社会的巨大发展与进步,如果没有改革开放,也不会有我这样一个作家。”这话正好合上李长春的调子,“莫言获得诺贝尔文学奖,既是中国文学繁荣进步的体现,也是我国综合国力和国际影响力不断提升的体现。”面对中国是否有言论自由问题,莫言说,“你去看看中国的网站,你就会知道中国有没有言论自由,”他假装不知有人仅因几篇网文被判重刑,还说中国的新闻出版审查是必要的,好比出国“申请签证”和“坐飞机安检”,故意把为包括被检者在内的旅客安全和为党国安全的新闻出版审查混为一谈。莫言还自欺欺人地说,不知道有作家受刑,忘了上月刚说过“希望刘晓波尽早出狱”,再以作家也会因行窃和杀人坐牢为例,顾左右而言他地否定中国作家因言羁縻的现实。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 29.8pt;"><span style="font-family: FangSong; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">莫言偷换概念强词夺理,听上去十分“机巧高妙”,却不过是耳熟能详的外交部发言人的辞令,他更像在大庭广众表演的政客,而不是在文学典礼上领奖的作家。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: FangSong; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">“我是犬儒我怕谁?”</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 29.8pt;"><span style="font-family: FangSong; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">对此,有人讥讽莫言在斯德哥尔摩展示斯德哥尔摩综合征,这话说对了一部分,斯德哥尔摩综合征患者是受虐者对施虐者习惯性地依赖盲从,但莫言的问题还不这么单纯。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 29.8pt;"><span style="font-family: FangSong; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">当记者再提身在囹圄的和平奖得主时,莫言断然回绝,“我从来都喜欢独来独往。当别人胁迫我要干一件事情的时候,我是从来不干的。我该说话了,我自然会说话,别人逼着我表态的时候,我是不会表态的。”不知就里的外国人听了,这话说得牛气冲天,莫言是个多么特立独行的人!但明辨真伪的中国人没这么好蒙,无论他如何拿乔掩饰,不过暴露他的犬儒、乡愿本相。因为包括这番话在内,他在颁奖活动中的所有言说,恰恰是在掌握他仕途名利的中共有形无形的胁迫——说得好听点是训诫和教诲——下说出的,而他大胆拒绝不受“胁迫”无惧得罪的,都是对他的利益纤毫无损的无权无势之辈。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 29.8pt;"><span style="font-family: FangSong; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">莫言这话,好比受赵太爷欺压的“下人”请阿Q评理,阿Q盛气凌人地冲“下人”说“你有什么资格逼我表态?你愈逼我,我愈不说!”阿Q自身也是赵太爷的奴才,哪怕戴上桂冠披上燕尾服,外观道貌岸然了,但怯懦的内心并无改变,听到赵太爷的名字腿就软了,哪里能挺直腰杆为“下人”说话。但他毕竟是“华夏第一人”了,面子总是要的,不敢对赵太爷说三道四,还不敢训斥“下人”吗?所以就有了“不听别人胁迫”的气势。当然,事与愿违,他说得愈大义凛然,他的懦夫形象凸显得愈鲜明。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 29.8pt;"><span style="font-family: FangSong; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">从某种程度上说,莫言确实不受“胁迫”,因为他总是事先就揣摩好“上意”,所以,他主动抄写“讲话”。得诺奖后莫言非但不反躬自省,还坚称“绝不后悔抄毛著”,因为他根本不屑介意“下意”,还泰然回敬草民的批评说,看到“包括在网络上很多对我的议论和批评,我也感到很生气。后来我渐渐感觉到,大家关注议论批评的这个人,跟我本人没有什么关系。很多人在用他们丰富的想象力塑造着另一个莫言。所以我是跟大家一起来围观大家对莫言的批评与表扬。”</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 29.8pt;"><span style="font-family: FangSong; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">好一副“我是犬儒我怕谁”的嘴脸!</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 29.8pt;"><span style="font-family: FangSong; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">事实上,莫言并非无视批评,而是耿耿于怀。他在答谢词中迂回隐晦地编了三个故事回击。第一个故事是:“当众人都哭时,应该允许有的人不哭,”言下之意,我就是一个面对灾难不哭的人;第二个故事是:有时过于敏感较真做“英勇的斗士”是错的;第三个故事的“寓言”更深,出现多种解读:或是群起攻击我的人不定哪天遭天罚;或是民主不过是多数人的暴政等等,总之,是不是好话,你们自己去理解吧!</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 29.8pt;"><span style="font-family: FangSong; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">丧失良知的莫言,不用诺奖赋予的勇气去直面权贵,反而杀个回马枪奚落质疑者,话里有话地透出骄横狂妄——我犬儒了这么多年不是照样得奖?为什么要顺从你们的意见改变自己?尤其是那些令我难堪的异见人士,让我站在你们一边——没门!</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: FangSong; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">中国作家进入歌德人格时代</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 29.8pt;"><span style="font-family: FangSong; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">其实,莫言早在三年前就表明了这样的立场,他在法兰克福书展的演讲中引述歌德和贝多芬的故事说,“有一次,歌德和贝多芬在路上并肩行走。突然,对面来了国王的仪仗。贝多芬昂首挺胸,从国王的仪仗队面前挺身而过。歌德退到路边,摘下帽子,在仪仗队面前恭敬肃立。”莫言评说,“像贝多芬那样做也许并不困难,但像歌德那样,退到路边摘下帽子,尊重世俗,对着国王的仪仗恭恭敬敬地行礼反而需要巨大的勇气。”</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 29.8pt;"><span style="font-family: FangSong; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">好一个自圆其说的奇谈怪论!坚守自尊不媚王权“并不困难”,向国王卑躬屈膝倒“需要巨大的勇气”!如此赞誉弄臣美化犬儒的论调,除了侏儒人格谁说得出?在暴政面前犬儒卑怯情有可原,虽然怒其不争,尚可哀其不幸,但犬儒卑怯还要为犬儒卑怯写颂词,就使犬儒变成了犬奴,卑怯滑向了卑鄙。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 29.8pt;"><span style="font-family: FangSong; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">可悲的是,莫言的表白代表了中国主流作家的心态,也反映了当下中国知识精英整体犬儒化的生态。有趣的是,有自恃和莫言旗鼓相当的作家,在名曰“祝贺”实为不服时,自夸说“莫言应该得奖,但中国至少还有十个作家够格。” 这话说的不错,无论和莫言比作品水准还是思想境界,中国的主流作家半斤八两。他们的写作共性是,“形而上”地揣摩诺贝尔奖评委的好恶,在形式上迎合西方读者的口味,同时,“形而下”地瞄准商业市场,俯就大众读者的低级趣味,还要把持一个原则,所书内容绝不跨越中宣部的禁域,这是主流作家的“一个中心,两个基本点”。所幸中国永远不缺供他们发挥的素材,于是,西方现代派技巧+“没原因”的中国人的苦难+“没来由”的乡村愚昧组装成的三合一作品源源不断。</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 29.8pt;"><span style="font-family: FangSong; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">如今,这样书写的莫言成功了,应了鲁迅近百年前的“预言”: 瑞典诺奖评委“因为黄色脸皮人,格外优待从宽(授奖),反足以长中国人的虚荣心,以为真可与别国大作家比肩了,结果将很坏。”今日更“坏”到鲁迅无法想象的地步。中共托庇莫言受奖,自满之情溢于言表,“中国崛起”终于赢得了西方的认同接受;主流作家暗下兴奋,既然不避讳御用犬儒也可以成为世界级“大作家”,他们为什么不继续莫言的道路,尽兴享受歌德人格风靡的时代?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">原载香港《争鸣》2013年1月号</span></p><div><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 15pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></div></span>吴一舟http://www.blogger.com/profile/04733222055917760641noreply@blogger.com1China35.86166 104.1953977.5514261638211551 69.039147 64.171893836178839 139.351647