 |
| 图：姚依林、薄一波、陈云 |
1、什么"十九大"、"习皇帝"，海外议论乃至西方媒体的话语，都跟着中南海起舞，很倒胃口。今日看北京，倘若忘记了一个总背景，则一切都是荒腔走板，即习近平代表了一个"太子党"集团，也就是"六四"屠杀后陈云说的"还是我们自己的子弟接班可靠"。然而即便"子弟"，也是有讲究的，所以习的"宰相"王岐山，是"屠城派"仅次于李鹏的二号人物姚依林之快婿；你再看刘源，前国家主席存活下来的孤胤，为习近平整肃掉两个前军委付主席，可谓反腐功臣，竟然退休了，由此可见，都是"太子党"，却要看你跟"六四"镇压的干系。忘掉了这一点，近乎不懂中国三十年政治。这个集团认为，他们当仁不让是中共政权的合法继承人，虽然这是一种"血统论"的表述，但是这个表述非常准确，道出了今天北京政权的实质，而西方人完全看不懂。所以说，习的执政目标，不管他使用什么语言和词汇，都不仅仅只是"习自己的合法性"、或者"党的存亡"，而是这个"太子党"利益集团的合法性与存亡。"十九大"的人事和政策，也只有循此道，才看得出门径。
2、这个集团认为，江胡两届政权，都属于给他们打工的官僚而已；人们亦可知，江胡也是如此自我定位的，所以他们没有什么"主义""思想""三十年"一类不切实际的奢望，更别提跟毛"并列"了，叫他们俩跟邓小平"并列"也是不敢的。我曾有过一个观察，说后毛时代出现"平庸化"，中共的"统治人格"，不期然地经由邓小平的"猫型"、江泽民的"丑角（滑稽）型"，走到胡锦涛的"平庸（唐氏综合症）型"，是一个蛮好的除魅过程；却冷不丁，横档里杀出一个薄熙来，要当毛泽东传人，颇鄙夷中南海"无魅力"，骂习近平是"刘阿斗"，于是"打工集团"势必要收拾这个"小枭雄"，好为指定的"习阿斗"铺垫登基道路。
3、未曾想，这个"习阿斗"还是要模仿"薄二哥"，难道非如此则不能有别于"打工集团"？习能不能跟毛"并列"，不取决于他自己的欲望，而是要看他驾驭权力和大众（crowd）的魅力——谈到"魅力"，就引入了Max Weber的一套说法，即三种"权威模式"，其中Charisma（个人魅力型统治），是许多学者借来诠释从希特勒、斯大林直到毛泽东等"枭雄"现象的一种流行看法。然而，习有"个人魅力"吗？且不论他只有初中文化水平，迄今为止，他将"通商宽农"读成"通商宽衣"、他的"政治化妆师"为他设计"晒书单"以比附毛泽东"乱翻杂书闲书"的陋习，已成互联网上的笑料；又者，习居然会有"思想"？在"顺口溜"横行的中国，倒是令人想起一个旧句："中国人问蒙古人，贵国没有海洋，为何还要组建海军？"然而"习思想"诞生在"用脚投票"、"用下半身写作"、"思想就像内裤"的一个时代，其实是很般配的。若为习近平计，他何苦要去当"毛二世"？撇下韦伯理论不说，此举非但不能为习家光宗耀祖，反而是将自己降低到了毛新宇那一个层级，离痴呆很近了。
《南华早报》来问我看法，只好顺便跟着说两句唱衰的吧。
Dear Prof蘇曉康,
This is to request your comment on Chinese politics, from Cary Huang, a senior writer with South China Morning Post. You can choose use English or Chinese.
A recent string of references in official Chinese media to "Xi Jinping Thought" suggests that Beijing is preparing to enshrine the president's name alongside Mao Zedong's in the Communist Party charter when the party holds its twice-a-decade congress this autumn. I am writing a lengthy news analysis (full-page for print and bigger story online) on this subject and would like to invite you, an expert in this area, to give your opinion on it.
The question I would like you to give interpretation and comment include:
1. The Party Constitution states: "Communist Party of China takes Marxism-Leninism, Mao Zedong Thought, Deng Xiaoping Theory, the important thought of Three Represents and the Scientific Outlook on Development as its guide to action."
Then what it would mean for "Xi's Thought" to be added to this statement, making Xi paralleling Mao's status?
2. Is it also prepared for Xi to stay on power after 2022, making him a life long leader as Mao?
3. Does it mark China enters into what is called "Xi Jinping's era" as party propagandists called for the advent of a new "30 years", after Mao's 30 years; Deng, Jiang and Hu's 30 years?
4. Is it just for Xi's personal legitimacy, or also for the Party's survival, as the party is trying to rebuild its ideology and theory following the collapse of its orthodoxy ideology?.
5. What consequences and reactions that "XJP Thought" would have brought about, as some said Xh has tried to break up two Dengist principles of rules: "corrective leadership" and "pragmatism", replacing Mao's strongman politics and personality cult and leftism
6. What reactions would be from within the establishment, the general public and the outside world?
7. What it would affect China's future development, a change of Deng's reformist path of development, a revival of Maoist leftism, or some might say the Great Leap Backward of China's ideology?
7. The implications on China's foreign policy.
You can choose to answer any of above questions, or make your own comment on the topic beyond my question.
Best regard
Cary Huang,
A senior writer and columnist with South China Morning Post
A recent string of references in official Chinese media to "Xi Jinping Thought" suggests that Beijing is preparing to enshrine the president's name alongside Mao Zedong's in the Communist Party charter when the party holds its twice-a-decade congress this autumn. I am writing a lengthy news analysis (full-page for print and bigger story online) on this subject and would like to invite you, an expert in this area, to give your opinion on it.
The question I would like you to give interpretation and comment include:
1. The Party Constitution states: "Communist Party of China takes Marxism-Leninism, Mao Zedong Thought, Deng Xiaoping Theory, the important thought of Three Represents and the Scientific Outlook on Development as its guide to action."
Then what it would mean for "Xi's Thought" to be added to this statement, making Xi paralleling Mao's status?
2. Is it also prepared for Xi to stay on power after 2022, making him a life long leader as Mao?
3. Does it mark China enters into what is called "Xi Jinping's era" as party propagandists called for the advent of a new "30 years", after Mao's 30 years; Deng, Jiang and Hu's 30 years?
4. Is it just for Xi's personal legitimacy, or also for the Party's survival, as the party is trying to rebuild its ideology and theory following the collapse of its orthodoxy ideology?.
5. What consequences and reactions that "XJP Thought" would have brought about, as some said Xh has tried to break up two Dengist principles of rules: "corrective leadership" and "pragmatism", replacing Mao's strongman politics and personality cult and leftism
6. What reactions would be from within the establishment, the general public and the outside world?
7. What it would affect China's future development, a change of Deng's reformist path of development, a revival of Maoist leftism, or some might say the Great Leap Backward of China's ideology?
7. The implications on China's foreign policy.
You can choose to answer any of above questions, or make your own comment on the topic beyond my question.
Best regard
Cary Huang,
A senior writer and columnist with South China Morning Post
没有评论:
发表评论