班农：人类第四次文明的冲突，美国伟大的第四次转折

作者：Gwynn Guilford  Nikhil Sonnad

译者：陈达飞

原文：What Steve Bannon really wants

译者按：班农，中国读者应该不陌生了，他是特朗普2016年参选美国总统的"总策划"，是特朗普的"军师"，有人称他是"影子总统"。去年8月19号，被特朗普辞退，但今日又回归。本文作者梳理了班农2017年以前的演讲、纪录片等资料，总结了三个关键词：资本主义、民族主义和犹太-基督教价值观。可以看出，班农是一个极端的意识形态狂热者，他宣称，美国正面临人类史上第四次文明的冲突。幸好，他并没有将矛头对准中国，而是伊斯兰价值观。但作者也提到，班农的想法是不断演进的，很明显，他对中国并不友好，这在其在日本的演讲中已经表现出来。

这是美国历史上的第四次大危机……我们经历了革命，我们经历了内战，我们经历了大萧条和第二次世界大战。这是美国历史上最伟大的第四次转折。

我认为，我们正处在一场动摇资本主义根基的危机之中。我相信，我们现在正处于反伊斯兰法西斯的全球战争的初期阶段。

只有当(自由派和媒体)弄错时——不知道我们是谁，我们在做什么，我们才会受益。

——班农

正文

What does Donald Trump want for America?His supporters don't know. His party doesn't know. Even he doesn't know. Ifthere is a political vision underlying Trumpism, however, the person to ask isnot Trump. It's his éminence grise, Stephen K. Bannon, the chief strategist ofthe Trump administration.

唐纳德·特朗普想要把美国带向何处？他的支持者不知道，共和党不知道，连他自己可能也不知道。然而, 如果"特朗普主义" 有一个政治愿景, 该问的人不是特朗普，而是他的首席战略顾问史蒂芬·班农。

Bannon transcended his working-classVirginia roots with a stint in the Navy and a degree from Harvard BusinessSchool, followed by a career as a Goldman Sachs financier. He moved to LosAngeles to invest in media and entertainment for Goldman, before starting hisown investment bank specializing in media. Through a combination of luck (afallen-through deal left him with a stake in a hit show called Seinfeld) and aknack for voicing outrage, Bannon remade himself as a minor luminary within thefar edge of right-wing politics, writing and directing a slew of increasinglyconservative documentaries.

班农摆脱了弗吉尼亚工人家庭出身的身份，（大学毕业后）先是到海军服役，后又到哈佛大学商学院深造，获MBA学位，之后开启了高盛金融家的职业生涯。他搬到洛杉矶，专攻高盛对媒体和娱乐行业的投资。之后，他创办自己的专注于媒体行业的投资银行。通过运气(一场失败的交易让他获得了一部名为《宋飞正传》的热播剧的股份) 和表达愤怒的本领的结合, 班农将自己重塑为极端的右翼政治人物, 创作和导演一系列越来越保守的纪录片。

Bannon's influence reached a new high in2012 when he took over Breitbart News, an online news site, following the deathof creator Andrew Breitbart. While at Breitbart, Bannon ran a popular talkradio call-in show and launched a flame-throwing assault on mainstream Republicans,embracing instead a fringe cast of ultra-conservative figures. Among them wasTrump, a frequent guest of the show. They established a relationship thateventually led Bannon to mastermind Trump's populist romp to the White House,culminating in his taking the administration's most senior position (alongsidethe chief of staff, Reince Priebus).

2012年，班农的影响力达到新高，他在制片人安德鲁•布莱特巴特去世后，接管了在线新闻网站——布莱特巴特新闻网。在布莱特巴特，班农主持了一个广受欢迎的电台访谈节目，并对主流共和党人发起了猛烈抨击，转而拥抱一些被边缘化的极端保守人士，其中就包括特朗普，他是该节目的常客。他们建立了一种关系，最终导致班农将特朗普的民粹主义闹剧带到了白宫，最终他也担任政府最高职位（与幕僚长雷恩斯·普里巴斯并肩作战）。

It's impossible to know for sure whatBannon will do with his newfound power; he honors few interview requestslately, ours included. (The White House did not respond to our request to speakwith Bannon.) But his time as a conservative filmmaker and head of BreitbartNews reveals a grand theory of what America should be. Using the vast amount ofBannon's own publicly available words—from his lectures, interviews, films andmore—we can construct elements of the vision for America he hopes to realize inthe era of Trump.

我们不可能确定班农会用他新获得的权力做什么。他最近很少接受采访，包括我们的。（白宫没有回应我们与班农谈话的请求。）但作为一名保守的电影制作人和布莱特巴特新闻的负责人，他的经历揭示了一个关于美国应该是什么的宏大理论。利用班农自己大量公开可用的讲话——从他的演讲、采访、电影等等——我们可以构建他希望在特朗普时代实现的"美国梦"的元素。

Thethree tenets of Bannonism

班农主义的三大信条

Bannon's political philosophy boils down tothree things that a Western country, and America in particular, needs to besuccessful: Capitalism, nationalism, and "Judeo-Christian values." These areall deeply related, and essential.

可将班农的政治哲学归结为三点：资本主义、民族主义和"犹太-基督教价值观"，这些都是紧密相关的，也是必不可少的。

America, says Bannon, is suffering a"crisis of capitalism." (He uses the word "crisis" a lot—more on that later.)Capitalism used to be all about moderation, an entrepreneurial American spirit,and respect for one's fellow Christian man. In fact, in remarks delivered to theVatican in 2014, Bannon says that this "enlightened capitalism" was the"underlying principle" that allowed the US to escape the "barbarism" of the20th century.

班农说，美国正在经历一场"资本主义危机"（他经常用了"危机"这个词——稍后将进行更详细的讨论)。过去，资本主义都是讲节制，一种创新的美国精神，以及对基督徒同胞的尊重。事实上，在2014年向梵蒂冈发表的讲话中，班农表示，这种"开明的资本主义"是让美国摆脱20世纪"野蛮"的"根本原则"。

Since this enlightened era, things havegradually gotten worse. (Hence the "crisis.") The downward trend began with the1960s and '70s counterculture. "The baby boomers are the most spoiled, mostself-centered, most narcissistic generation the country's ever produced," saysBannon in a 2011 interview.

从这个开明的时代开始，事情变得越来越糟。(因此出现了"危机")该趋势始于上世纪六、七十年代的反主流文化。班农在2011年的一次采访中说："婴儿潮一代是这个国家有史以来最受宠爱、最以自我为中心、最自恋的一代。"

He takes on this issue in more detail inGeneration Zero, a 2010 documentary he wrote and directed. The film shows oneinterviewee after another laying out how the "capitalist system" was slowlyundermined and destroyed by a generation of wealthy young kids who had theirmaterial needs taken care of by hardworking parents—whose values were shaped bythe hardship of the Great Depression and World War II—only to cast off theAmerican values that had created that wealth in the first place. This shiftgave rise to socialist policies that encouraged dependency on the government,weakening capitalism.

他在2010年的纪录片《零世代》中更详细地阐述了这一问题。这部电影记录了一个又一个的受访者，讲述"资本主义制度"是如何被富有的一代年轻人慢慢破坏和摧毁的，这些年轻人的物质生活依赖于他们勤劳的父母——大萧条和二战的苦难塑造了他们的价值观——只是为了摆脱创造财富的美国价值观。这种转变催生了社会主义政策，鼓励对政府的依赖，削弱了资本主义。

Eventually, this socialist vision succeededin infiltrating the very highest levels of institutional power in America. "Bythe late 1990s, the left had taken over many of the institutions of power,meaning government, media, and academe," says Peter Schweizer, a writeraffiliated with Bannon's Government Accountability Institute, a conservativethink tank, in Generation Zero. "And it was from these places and positions ofpower that they were able to disrupt the system and implement a strategy thatwas designed to ultimately undermine the capitalist system." (As he says"undermine the capitalist system," the film zooms in on the word "Lucifer" inthat now-infamous epigraph from Saul Alinsky.)

最终，这种社会主义的愿景成功地渗入了美国最高层次的权力机构中。彼得•施韦策说："到20世纪90年代末，左派已经接管了许多权力机构，如政府、媒体和学术界。"他是一个隶属于班农政府问责研究所（《零时代》中的一个保守的智囊团）的作家。正是在这些地方和权力部门中，他们才能够破坏这个制度，实施一项旨在最终破坏资本主义制度的战略。(正如他所说的"破坏资本主义制度"，影片将"路西法"一词放大到索尔•阿林斯基那本现已声名狼藉的题词中。)

Underlying all of this is the philosophy ofEdmund Burke, an influential 18th-century Irish political thinker whom Bannonoccasionally references. In Reflections on the Revolution in France, Burkepresents his view that the basis of a successful society should not be abstractnotions like human rights, social justice, or equality. Rather, societies workbest when traditions that have been shown to work are passed from generation togeneration. The baby boomers, Bannon says in a lecture given to the LibertyRestoration Foundation (LRF), failed to live up to that Burkean responsibilityby abandoning the tried-and-true values of their parents (nationalism, modesty,patriarchy, religion) in favor of new abstractions (pluralism, sexuality,egalitarianism, secularism).

这一切的基础是埃德蒙·伯克的哲学，他是18世纪一位有影响力的爱尔兰政治思想家，班农偶尔会提到他。在对法国大革命的反思中，伯克提出了他的观点：一个成功社会的基础不应该是抽象的概念，如人权、社会正义或平等。相反，只有当被实践证明是行之有效的传统代代相传时，社会才能运转得最好。班农在给自由复兴基金会(LRF)的演讲中说，婴儿潮一代没有履行伯克式的责任，他们放弃了父母一辈久经考验的价值观——民族主义、谦逊、父权制、宗教，而选择了新的抽象概念——多元化、性欲、平等主义、世俗主义。

For both Burke and Bannon, failure to passthe torch results in social chaos.

对于伯克和班农来说，（价值观）未能薪火相传，导致了社会混乱。

特朗普就职典礼上的班农

The new liberal order

新自由主义秩序

Once in power, the liberal, secular,global-minded elite overhauled the institutions of democracy and capitalism totighten its grip on power and the ability to enrich itself. The "party ofDavos," as Bannon long ago dubbed this clique, has warped capitalism'sinstitutions, depriving middle classes everywhere of the wealth they deserve.

一旦掌权，自由、世俗、全球化的精英们就会彻底改革民主制度和资本主义制度，以加强对权力的控制，增进自身的财富。班农很久以前就把这个小团体称为"达沃斯党"，它扭曲了资本主义制度，剥夺了世界各地的中产阶级应得的财富。

This pattern of exploitation came to a headin the 2008 global financial and economic crisis. Wall Street—enabled by fellowglobal elites in government—spun profits out of speculation instead ofinvesting their wealth in domestic jobs and businesses. When the resultingbubble finally burst, the immoral government stuck hardworking Americantaxpayers with the bailout bill.

这种剥削模式在2008年的全球金融和经济危机中达到了顶峰。在分布于全球的政府精英们的帮助下，华尔街将利润从投机中剥离出来，而不是将他们投资于国内的工作和企业。当由此产生的泡沫最终破灭时，不道德的政府让辛勤工作的美国纳税人为救助法案买单。

This is the kind of thing that led Bannonto say in that 2011 LRF lecture that there is "socialism for the very wealthy."The rest of the country, he says, is "practical middle-class people." There isalso "socialism for the very poor," he adds. "We've built a welfare state thatis completely and totally unsupportable, and now this is a crisis."

这就是班农在2011年的自由复兴基金会演讲中所说的"富人的社会主义"。他说，这个国家的其他地区是"务实的中产阶级"。他补充到，这也是"为穷人而设的社会主义"。"我们已经建立了一个完全无法支撑的福利国家，现在这是一场危机。"

Bannon wants all of this liberal-sponsored"socialism" to end. He celebrates CNBC host Rick Santelli's famous 2009 tiradeabout "those who carry the water and those who drink the water," which sparkedwhat became the Tea Party, a populist movement focused on tax cuts, fiscalscrimping, and a narrow interpretation of constitutional rights. Channeling thespirit of the Tea Party, Bannon blames Republicans as much as Democrats fortaking part in cronyism and corruption at the expense of middle class families.

班农希望结束所有由自由主义者倡导的"社会主义"。他为CNBC主持人里克•桑塔利在2009年发表的著名演讲——那些挑水的人和喝水的人而喝彩，他点燃了茶党兴起的火花，这是一场以减税、财政紧缩和对宪法权利的狭隘解释为重点的民粹主义运动。借用茶党精神，班农指责共和党和民主党以牺牲中产阶级家庭为代价，任人唯亲，作风腐败。

In short, in Bannonism, the crisis ofcapitalism has led to socialism and the suffering of the middle class. And ithas made it impossible for the current generation to bequeath a better futureto its successors, to fulfill its Burkean duty.

简而言之，在班农主义中，资本主义危机导致了社会主义和中产阶级的苦难。而且，这也使得现在的一代不可能将更美好的未来留给下一代，也不可能履行其伯克式的职责。

Judeo-Christian values

犹太-基督教的价值观

So what exactly are these traditions thatAmericans are meant to pass along to future generations? In addition to "crisisof capitalism," one of Bannon's favorite terms is "Judeo-Christian values."This is the second element of his theory of America.

那么，美国人应该将哪些传统传承给子孙后代呢?除了"资本主义危机"，班农最喜欢的术语之一是"犹太-基督教价值观"。这是他有关美国理论的第二个元素。

Generation Zero, Bannon's 2010 documentary,has a lot to say about "American values," and a lot of this matches closely theideals of the Tea Party. But since 2013 or 2014, Bannon's casual emphasis onAmerican values has swelled to include a strong religious component. Thesuccessful functioning of America—and Western civilization in general—dependson capitalism, and capitalism depends on the presence of "Judeo-Christianvalues."

班农2010年的纪录片《零世代》中有很多关于"美国价值观"的内容，其中很多都与茶党的理念非常契合。但自2013年或2014年以来，班农对美国价值观的漫不经心的强调已经膨胀，开始包含强烈的宗教成分。美国——乃至整个西方文明——的成功运作依赖于资本主义，而资本主义依赖于"犹太-基督教价值观"的存在。

For Bannon, capitalism was not onlyresponsible for bringing the US out of the war successfully; it also broughtabout the restoration of Europe and the Pax Americana that followed, heexplains in his 2014 speech to the Vatican conference. But capitalism alone isnot enough. Unmoored from a Judeo-Christian moral framework, capitalism can bea force of harm and injustice—exemplified by the US's economic decline.

对班农来说，资本主义不仅成功地将美国从战争中解救出来；这也带来了欧洲的复兴和美国治下的和平，他在2014年对梵蒂冈会议的演讲中如是说。但仅靠资本主义是不够的，如果资本主义没有遵循犹太-基督教的道德框架，它可能变成一种有害和不公正的力量——美国经济衰退就是例证。

To restore the health of America's economyand patch its shredded social fabric, Bannon wants capitalism to be re-anchoredby the Judeo-Christian values he believes made the country great throughout itshistory. This shared morality ensures that businesses invest not just for theirown benefit, but also for the good of native workers and future generations.

为了恢复美国经济的健康，修补破碎的社会结构，班农希望资本主义能够被犹太-基督教的价值观重新锚定，他相信正是这种价值观使这个国家在其历史上保持了伟大。这种共同的道德秩序保证了企业不仅为了自身的利益而投资，也是为了本地的工人和后代的利益。

As in Burke's view, human rights and civilsociety do not come from anything abstract, but from tradition. For Bannon,this tradition is God; nation-states that establish people as the arbiters oftruth and justice will ultimately give way to tyranny. The "ultimate check on the power of the state is God's teaching," saysDuck Dynasty's Phil Robertson in Torchbearer, the 2016 documentary that Bannonco-wrote, directed and produced. The film is full of Robertson offering similaraphorisms about how society falls apart without a religious foundation.

在伯克看来，人权和公民社会并非来自抽象的东西，而是来自传统。对班农而言，这个传统就是上帝；将人民作为真理和正义的仲裁者的民族国家最终将屈服于暴政。"对国家权力的终极制约是上帝的教导，"鸭子王朝的菲尔·罗伯逊在2016年的纪录片《火炬手》中说。这部电影充满了罗伯逊式的警句，讲述了没有宗教基础的社会是如何分崩离析的。

It's important to note that"Judeo-Christian values" does not necessarily seem to require that all citizensbelieve in Christianity. Bannon doesn't appear to want to undo the separationof church and state or freedom of religion enshrined in America's constitution.After all, both of these are traditions that have led America to success in thepast. What he believes is that the founding fathers built the nation based on aset of values that come from the Judeo-Christian tradition.

需要强调的是，"犹太-基督教价值观"并不一定要求所有公民都信仰基督教。班农似乎并不想撤销美国宪法中所规定的政教分离和宗教自由。毕竟，这两个传统在过去都曾引导美国走向成功。他所相信的是，先贤们立国于犹太-基督教传统价值观之上。

In order to make sure the whole country ison board with these values, it must limit or halt the influx of people who donot share them by rallying around nationalism. And it is through this finalingredient—the primacy of the nation-state's values and traditions—that Americacan drive a stake through the heart of the global, secular "establishment."

为了确保整个国家都认同这些价值观，它必须通过凝聚民族主义来限制或阻止那些不认同这些价值观的人的涌入。正是通过这个最后的组成部分——民族国家的价值观和传统的首要地位——美国才能在全球世俗主义"建制派"的核心中占有一席之地。

Nationalism

民族主义

In addition to enriching themselves andencouraging dependency among the poor, global elites also encourage immigrantsto flood the US and drag down wages. Immigrant labor boosts the corporateprofits of globalists and their cronies, who leave it to middle-class nativesto educate, feed, and care for these foreigners. The atheistic, pluralistsocial order that has been allowed to flourish recoils at nationalism and patriotism,viewing them as intolerant and bigoted. Without the moral compass of ourforefathers, the system is so adrift in relativism that it champions the"rights" of police-hating deadbeats, criminal aliens, and potential terroristsover ordinary Americans, turning cities into hotbeds of violence andundermining national security. As one interviewee declares in Border War: TheBattle over Illegal Immigration, another of Bannon's documentaries, "The rightsees [undocumented immigrants] as cheap labor, the left sees this as cheapvotes."

除了让自己富裕起来和鼓励穷人彼此依赖，全球主义的精英们还鼓励移民涌入美国，压低工资。移民增加了劳动人数，进而增加了全球主义者及其利益集团的企业利润，他们把这些利润留给本地的中产阶级来教育、养活和照顾这些外国人。这种无神论的、多元的社会秩序，已在民族主义和爱国主义中蓬勃发展，他们视民族主义和爱国主义是狭隘的和偏执的。如果没有我们先辈的道德指南，这个体系就会在相对主义中飘忽不定。他们提倡憎恨警察的游手好闲者、外国犯罪分子、潜在的恐怖分子的"权利"，将其凌驾于普通美国人之上，把城市变成暴力的温床，破坏国家安全。正如一位受访者在《边境战争:非法移民之战》中所说，"右派认为(非法移民)是廉价的劳动力，而左派则认为这是廉价的选票。"

Theideologist. (AP/Gerald Herbert)

Mired in near-zero growth and financialchaos, the European Union epitomizes the catastrophic fate of a globalistsystem governed by elites who are not accountable to the citizens that electedthem.

陷入零增长和金融混乱的欧盟，是一个由精英统治的全球主义体系的灾难性命运的缩影，这些精英不向选举他们的公民负责。

"[P]eople, particularly in certaincountries, want to see the sovereignty for their country, they want to seenationalism for their country," Bannon says in the Vatican speech. "They don'tbelieve in this kind of pan-European Union or they don't believe in thecentralized government in the United States."

班农在梵蒂冈的讲话中说："人们，尤其是某些国家的人，希望看到自己国家的主权，希望看到自己国家的民族主义。""他们不相信这种泛欧联盟，也不相信美国的集权政府。"

Nationalism, then, is the mechanism throughwhich Judeo-Christian traditions and values become part of society. That'sbecause nationalism is fully inclusive, in the sense that it invites people ofdifferent backgrounds to unite under a common "American" sense of self. Itdissolves minority identities—leading to the emphasis on "colorblindness" of"all lives matter" and opposition to affirmative action. This shared set ofJudeo-Christian, nationalist values prevents minorities from claiming specialrights. For instance, Generation Zero blames the 2007 housing collapse on"black victimization" that undermined capitalism and encouraged dependency onthe government. At the same time, Torchbearer celebrates Dr. Martin Luther KingJr. as a paragon of traditional American morality because his view of humanrights was based in Christianity.

民族主义是一种促进犹太-基督教传统和价值观融入社会的机制。这是因为民族主义是完全包容的，它接纳不同背景的人在共同的"美国"共同意识下团结起来。它消除了少数民族的身份——导致了强调"所有生命都重要"的"色盲症"和对平权行动的反对。这种共同的犹太-基督教、民族主义价值观阻止少数民族获得特殊权利。例如，"零年代"将2007年的房地产崩盘归咎于"黑人受害者"，这削弱了资本主义，鼓励了对政府的依赖。与此同时，火炬手将马丁·路德·金博士誉为美国传统道德的典范，因为他对人权的看法是基于基督教。

The liberal elite's pervasive emphasis onpluralism and minority rights—and its financial and political support of thesegroups—constrains shared American-ness. This erosion of Judeo-Christiannationalism weakens the country. Again, this applies not just to America, butalso to other Western countries. As Bannon declares at a 2016 South CarolinaTea Party convention, the "swells, the investment bankers, the guys from theEU" are the "same guys who have allowed the complete collapse of theJudeo-Christian West in Europe."

自由派精英对多元主义和少数民族权利的普遍强调，以及对这些群体的财政和政治支持，限制了美国人的民族认同感。这种对犹太-基督教民族主义的侵蚀削弱了这个国家。同样，这不仅适用于美国，也适用于其他西方国家。正如班农在2016年南卡罗莱纳茶党大会上所宣称的那样，正是那些"膨胀的投资银行家和那些来自欧盟的家伙"，让西欧的犹太-基督教彻底崩溃。

People who do not sign off on this set ofshared values should not be welcome in the US. This logic forms the basis ofBannon's opposition to immigrants, whose lack of democratic "DNA," he believes,will harm society.

在美国，不赞同这一共同价值观的人不应该受到欢迎。这种逻辑构成了班农反对移民的基础，他认为，移民缺乏民主的"DNA"，会危害社会。

"These are not Jeffersonian democrats,"Bannon said last year, referring to immigrants heading from Muslim majoritycountries to Europe, USA Today reported. "These are not people with thousandsof years of democracy in their DNA coming up here." That rationale mightjustify closing the borders to immigrants from Latin America, even though theyare usually devout Catholics.

班农在2016年说："这些不是杰斐逊派的民主党人"。他指的是从穆斯林占多数的国家移民到欧洲的移民。"这些来到这里的人，没有几千年民主的基因。这样的理由可能会让他们有关闭拉丁美洲移民的通道，即使这些移民通常都是虔诚的天主教徒，

A theory of generations

代际理论

The crisis of capitalism and theundermining of the Judeo-Christian West that Bannon proclaims in his Vatican lectureis not an isolated event. It is, in his view, one of a repeated cycle of crisesthat occurs periodically, each of which inevitably culminates in war andconflict on a grand scale.

班农在梵蒂冈的演讲中宣称，资本主义的危机和西方犹太-基督教传统的破坏不是孤立的事件。在他看来，这是周期性反复发生的循环危机之一，每一次危机都不可避免地在大规模的战争和冲突中达到高潮。

"This is the fourth great crisis inAmerican history," he says in the speech to the LRF. "We had the revolution, wehad the Civil War, we had the Great Depression and World War II. This is thegreat Fourth Turning in American history."

他在对自由复兴基金会的讲话中说，"这是美国历史上的第四次大危机……我们经历了革命，我们经历了内战，我们经历了大萧条和第二次世界大战。这是美国历史上最伟大的第四次转折。"

What he is getting at here is based on thework of Neil Howe and William Strauss, two amateur historians who in the 1990spresented a "generational theory" of American history. The theory viewsAmerican history through the lens of repeated cycles lasting roughly 80 years,about the length of a single lifetime. Within each 80-year cycle, say Howe andStrauss, are four "turnings"—periods of around 20 years that are characterizedby a particular mood. These four moods are the "high," "awakening,""unraveling," and, finally, "crisis."

班农在这里的讲话是以尼尔·豪和威廉·施特劳斯两位业余历史学家的理论为基础的，他们在20世纪90年代提出了美国历史的"代际理论"。这个理论通过一个重复周期来观察美国历史，这个周期大约持续80年，大约是一个人一生的长度。豪和施特劳斯说，在每一个80年的周期内，有四个"旋转"期——大约20年的周期，以一种特定的情绪为特征。这四种情绪分别是"高潮"、"觉醒"、"瓦解"，最后是"危机"。

The theory is too vague to be proven wrong,and has not been taken seriously by most professional historians. But it issuperficially compelling, and plots out to some degree how America's historyhas unfolded since its founding.

这个理论太过模糊，不可能被证明是错误的，也没有被大多数专业的历史学家所重视。但从表面上来看，它是令人信服的，在某种程度上描绘了美国建国以来的历史。

It's also clear how the generational theoryfits with Bannon's view that the slow erosion of Judeo-Christian values hasbeen bad for the country. The most recent cycle, according to Howe and Strauss,went from the "high" of the postwar era—a time of which Bannon is particularlyfond—to an "awakening" of activism in the '60s, followed by an "unraveling" ofinstitutions and shared values thanks to the individualism brought on by thepreceding "awakening." That brings us to the current crisis, the great "FourthTurning," following the American Revolution, Civil War, and the GreatDepression/World War II.

很明显，代际理论与班农的观点相符，班农认为，对犹太-基督教价值观的缓慢侵蚀对国家不利。根据豪爽和施特劳斯的说法，最近的一个周期是从战后的"高潮"时期开始的——在这个时期，班农特别喜欢60年代"觉醒"的激进主义，接着就是制度和共同的价值观"瓦解"，这是由于之前的"觉醒"带来的个人主义价值观。现在，来到了当前的危机——继美国革命、内战、大萧条/第二次世界大战之后的大"第四次转折"。

How to solve the crisis:Large-scale conflict

如何解决危机:大规模冲突

"Turnings" feature very heavily inGeneration Zero. "Turnings are like the seasons—every turning is necessary,"says historian David Kaiser in the documentary, over stock footage of clocksticking, suns rising, and butterflies emerging. "Cities are founded, citiescollapse. States rise, states fall," he continues.

在《零时代》中，"转折"有重要意义。历史学家大卫·凯瑟在纪录片《时钟滴答作响、太阳升起、蝴蝶飞舞》中说："换季就像季节一样——每一个转折都是必要的，……，城市，从建立到崩溃。国家，从崛起到衰落。

What exactly is the current crisis?Bannon's view on it has evolved. In 2010, he appears to have regarded it as theresult of the debt racked up in the 2000s and the 2008 financial crisis.

当前的危机到底是什么? 2010年，他似乎将其视为本世纪头十年积累的债务和2008年金融危机的结果。但班农的看法是不断演化的。

"This accumulated debt at all levels of oursociety poses an immediate existential threat to America," he says in a 2010speech in New York City. "Now unlike the manufactured crises of global warmingand healthcare, this is a true crisis. This crisis threatens the verysovereignty of our country."

他在2010年纽约的一次演讲中说："我们社会各阶层累积的债务对美国构成了迫在眉睫的生存威胁。"与全球变暖和医疗保健等人为制造的危机不同，这是一场真正的危机。这场危机威胁到我国的主权。

And in the 2011 LRF lecture, when Bannondeclares the US faces the "fourth great crisis in American history," he stillseems to suggest that it consists largely of the global financial crisis thatbegan in 2008.

在2011年的自由复兴基金会的演讲中，班农宣布美国将面临"美国历史上的第四次大危机"，他似乎仍在暗示，这场危机主要是始于2008年的全球金融危机。

But there's more to it than that. Comparingthe current crisis to events like the Revolutionary War and World War II,Bannon appears to believe that the US is heading inevitably toward violentconflict. This interpretation is backed up by other statements from and aboutBannon. David Kaiser, the historian interviewed in Generation Zero and also aproponent of the Strauss-Howe theory, recently recounted his conversation withBannon, including Bannon's militaristic interpretation of the theory, in Time:

但远不止如此。把当前的危机与革命战争和第二次世界大战相提并论，班农似乎认为美国正不可避免地走向暴力冲突。这种解释也得到了有关班农的其他声明的支持。比如，在《零时代》中接受采访的历史学家大卫·凯瑟，他同时也是施特劳斯-豪理论的支持者，最近讲述了他与班农的谈话，包括班农对该理论的军国主义解读。

A second, Bannon had clearly thought a longtime both about the domestic potential and the foreign policy implications ofStrauss and Howe. More than once during our interview, he pointed out that eachof the three preceding crises had involved a great war, and those conflicts hadincreased in scope from the American Revolution through the Civil War to theSecond World War. He expected a new and even bigger war as part of the currentcrisis, and he did not seem at all fazed by the prospect.

第二，班农显然对施特劳斯-豪理论在内政和外交上的影响考虑了很长时间。在我们的采访中，他不止一次地指出，之前的三次危机都涉及一场大战，这些冲突的范围从美国独立战争到美国内战再到第二次世界大战。他预计，作为当前危机的一部分，一场新的、甚至更大的战争将会爆发。

Let's follow the logic of this generationaltheory for a second: If a "high" only comes after a "crisis," and if a "crisis"must necessarily be an increasingly large-scale war, Bannon is left searchingfor a major, existence-level enemy. Does the "Party of Davos" alone qualify?Who else could this war be fought against?

让我们来看看这个代际理论的逻辑：如果一个"高潮"只出现在"危机"之后，如果"危机"必然是一场大规模的战争，班农就会寻找一个主要的、已经存在的敌人。仅仅是"达沃斯论坛"就够格吗?这场战争还能与谁作战?

In the 2014 Vatican lecture, Bannon goesfurther. "I think we are in a crisis of the underpinnings of capitalism, and ontop of that we're now, I believe, at the beginning stages of a global waragainst Islamic fascism," he says. Bannon adds: "Thismay be a little more militant than others…I believe you should take a very,very, very aggressive stance against radical Islam…. See what's happening, andyou will see we're in a war of immense proportions."

在2014年的梵蒂冈演讲中，班农走得更远。他说："我认为，我们正处在一场动摇资本主义根基的危机之中。我相信，我们现在正处于反伊斯兰法西斯的全球战争的初期阶段。"班农补充到："这可能是比其他人激进了一些…我觉得你应该采取一个非常,非常,非常积极的姿态反对激进的伊斯兰....看看正在发生的事情，你会发现我们正处于一场规模巨大的战争中。"

Bannon's "global war againstIslamic fascism"

班农的"全球反伊斯兰法西斯战争"

The fourth great civilizational showdown—a"global existential war," as Bannon describes it in July 2016—pits the"Judeo-Christian West" against "Islamic fascism"—especially ISIL. But thethreat isn't necessarily limited to ISIL.

人类第四次文明的冲突——班农在2016年7月将其描述为"全球生存战争"——将"犹太-基督教西方"与"伊斯兰法西斯主义"——尤其是与伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国联系在一起。但这种威胁并不一定仅限于伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国。

Bannon's remarks and his affiliations withanti-Muslim activists like Pamela Geller and Robert Spencer leave theimpression that the enemy might well be Islam in general. As Breitbart notes in2014, the "erudite Bannon" entertains the argument that Islam's "war" againstChristianity "originated almost from [Islam's] inception." He endorses the viewthat, in the lead-up to World War II, Islam was a "much darker" force facingEurope than fascism. Other ideas he has supported include: a US nonprofitfocused on promoting a favorable image of Muslims is a terrorist front; theIslamic Society of Boston mosque was behind the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing;and Muslim-Americans are trying to supplant the US constitution with Shariahlaw.

班农的言论以及他与帕梅拉•盖勒和罗伯特•斯宾塞等反穆斯林活动人士的关系，给人的印象是，总的来说，敌人很可能是伊斯兰。正如布莱特巴特在2014年指出的，"博学的班农"认为，伊斯兰教对基督教的"战争"几乎源自(伊斯兰教的)开端。他支持这样一种观点，即在第二次世界大战之前，伊斯兰是一股比法西斯主义更为黑暗的力量。他支持的其他想法包括：一家美国非营利组织专注于宣传穆斯林的良好形象，这是一个恐怖主义阵线；波士顿清真寺伊斯兰协会是2013年波士顿马拉松爆炸案的幕后主使；穆斯林美国人正试图用伊斯兰教法取代美国宪法。

Because Islam is rooted in anti-Christianviolence, goes the logic, the only way to ensure that Muslims in America don'tpose a terrorist threat is to make sure they honor the US constitution as therule of law and accept Judeo-Christian values.

按照这种逻辑，因为伊斯兰教植根于反基督教的暴力活动，确保美国的穆斯林不会构成恐怖主义威胁的唯一途径，是确保他们遵守美国宪法，视其其为法治，并接受犹太-基督教的价值观。

"Darkness,Darth Vader, and Dick Cheney"

"黑暗，达斯·维德，迪克·切尼"

There are a few loose ends in Bannon'sthinking—comments that seem consequential, but are vague or don't fit clearlyinto any bigger vision.

班农的想法中有些地方含混不清——这些评论看起来很重要，但很模糊，或者不符合任何更大的愿景。

Consider, for example, his statement that"darkness is good," which he told Michael Wolff of Hollywood Reporter. "DickCheney. Darth Vader. Satan. That's power," he continued. Or the statement,reported by the Daily Beast, that Bannon views himself as a "Leninist" whowants to "bring everything crashing down, and destroy all of today'sestablishment."

比如，想想他对《好莱坞报道》的迈克尔沃尔夫说的话——黑暗是美好的。他继续说："迪克·切尼、达斯·维达和撒旦，象征着权力"。再比如，据《每日野兽》报道称，班农将自己视为"列宁主义者"，希望"把一切都搞垮，毁掉今天的体制"。

The constant repetition of the phrase"Judeo-Christian values" should convince us that Bannon does not worship Satan."Darkness is good" appears to suggest that the perception of being dark isgood. The quote continues, "It only helps us when [liberals and the media] getit wrong. When they're blind to who we are and what we're doing." Thus if theperception of him as a Darth Vader-like figure makes it easier for him tocreate his enlightened capitalist utopia, so be it.

不断被重复的"犹太-基督教价值观"应该使我们相信班农不崇拜撒旦。"黑暗是好的"似乎暗示着黑暗的感觉是好的。他继续说："只有当(自由派和媒体)弄错时——不知道我们是谁，我们在做什么，我们才会受益。"因此，如果认为他是达斯·瓦德尔那样的人物，会让他更容易创造出开明的资本主义乌托邦，那就顺其自然吧。

As for the Leninist remark, it seems prettyconsistent with what we know of Bannon thus far: The conservative Burke himselfthought that throwing out leaders was justified when "necessary" to restore theold values.

至于列宁主义的言论，似乎与我们迄今对班农的了解相当一致：保守的伯克认为，在"必要"时，驱逐领导人是正当的，以恢复旧的价值观。

Then again, this delight in being a "dark"oppositional force pairs nicely with his ferocious hatred of the"establishment." In particular, Bannon's diatribes against the media brim withspite toward journalists' arrogance, superiority, and naivety.

再一次，这是一种"黑暗"的对立力量，与他对"权势集团"的强烈仇恨很好地结合在一起。尤其是班农对媒体的谩骂，充满了对记者的傲慢、优越感和怨恨。

On Breitbart radio in early November, he praisedthe "insight and savvy" of its callers and website commenters, while rantingabout a "smug, smirking" New York Times reporter who suggested that Trump rallyattendees in Mississippi didn't know who Nigel Farage, a right-wing populistleader in the UK, was. "120% of the people" at the rally knew of Farage, who is"kind of a cult hero in this global populist movement," said Bannon. Morerecently, he told the New York Times (paywall) that the media "should beembarrassed and humiliated and keep its mouth shut and just listen for awhile." He added: "I want you to quote this. The media here is the oppositionparty. They don't understand this country. They still do not understand whyDonald Trump is the president of the United States."

11月初，特朗普在布莱特巴特电台上赞扬了其致电者和网站评论者的"洞察力和悟性"，同时对《纽约时报》一位"沾沾自喜、装腔作势"的记者表示，特朗普在密西西比州集会的参与者并不知道英国右翼民粹主义领导人奈杰尔•法拉奇是谁。集会上"120%的人"知道法拉奇，"在这场全球民粹主义运动中，他是一个狂热的英雄，"班农说。最近，他对《纽约时报》(paywall)表示，媒体"应该感到尴尬和羞辱，闭上嘴，静静地听一会儿。"他补充说:"我希望你能引用这句话。"这里的媒体是反对党。他们不了解这个国家。他们仍然不明白为什么唐纳德·特朗普是美国总统。

Some of his hatred of the elite seemsrooted in his experiences living and working among the elite. He frequentlyreferences his Harvard and Goldman Sachs pedigrees. However, when he describeshis time as an elite, it's as an "outsider"—a term he used in the early days todescribe the populist movement he represented—passing among the privileged anddeciphering their nefariousness for ordinary middle-class Americans. Forexample, in his 2014 Vatican speech, he says: I could see this when I worked atGoldman Sachs — there are people in New York that feel closer to people inLondon and in Berlin than they do to people in Kansas and in Colorado, and theyhave more of this elite mentality that they're going to dictate to everybodyhow the world's going to be run. I will tell you that the working men and womenof Europe and Asia and the United States and Latin America don't believe that.They believe they know what's best for how they will comport their lives.

他对精英阶层的一些仇恨似乎源于他在精英阶层中生活和工作的经历。他经常提到自己的哈佛和高盛血统。然而，当他将那时的自己描述为精英阶层时，那是"局外人"——他在早期用这个词来形容他所代表的民粹主义运动——在美国中产阶级的特权阶层中传递着他们的邪恶。例如，在2014年的梵蒂冈演讲中，他说：我在高盛工作时就能看到这一点——在纽约，有些人感觉与伦敦和柏林的人更亲近，而不是堪萨斯和科罗拉多的人，他们有更多的精英情结，会告诉人们世界将如何运转。我要告诉你们，欧洲、亚洲、美国和拉丁美洲的劳动人民不相信这一点。他们相信他们知道什么是最合意的生活。

But this cosmic avenger role Bannon seemsto claim as voice-giver to the "forgotten" middle-classes hints at a deeperrelish of conflict. A fascination with warfare and violence emerges in, forinstance, his frequent allusion to the glory of the amphibious invasion atNormandy, or his taking the time out of his duties as Breitbart's CEO to pen anobituary for Vo Nguyen Giap, a Vietnamese general who led a war forindependence that Bannon described as "one of the bloodiest and hardest foughtby all combatants." In particular, the aesthetic of his documentaries can benauseatingly violent. (There are at least six separate shots of fallingguillotines, as well as lingering footage of nuclear radiation victims, massburials from Nazi gas chambers, and various ISIL atrocities.)

但扮演着宇宙复仇者的角色的班农似乎声称是"被遗忘的"中产阶级的代言人，这暗示着一种更深层次的冲突。例如，对战争和暴力的迷恋在他经常提到的诺曼底登陆的荣耀中显现出来, 或者是他从布赖特巴特的首席执行官的职务中抽出时间，为越南将军Vo Nguyen Giap撰写讣告，他领导了一场独立战争，班农将其描述为"所有战斗中最血腥和最艰难的战斗之一"。特别地，他的纪录片美学是一种令人作呕的暴力。（至少有六张断头台坠落的照片，还有残留的核辐射受害者画面，纳粹毒气室的大规模埋葬，以及伊斯兰国的各种暴行。）

What all this means for theTrump presidency

这一切对特朗普总统来说意味着什么？

Even before he took charge of Trump'scampaign, in Aug. 2016, Bannon's philosophies pervaded its rhetoric. If therewas any question about the role his views would play in the Trumpadministration, the last two weeks have made it clear: The president'sleadership hangs from the scaffolding of Bannon's worldview.

甚至在2016年8月特朗普竞选之前，班农的哲学就已经渗透到他的言辞中。如果有人质疑他的观点在特朗普政府中会起到什么作用，过去两周已经表明：奥巴马的领导地位悬于班农世界观的脚手架之上。

Trump's inaugural address was basically atelepromptered Bannon rant. Where inaugural speeches typically crackle withforward-looking optimism, Trump's was freighted with anti-elite resentment. Hedescribed a Bannonistic vision in which the "wealth of our middle class hasbeen ripped from their homes and then redistributed all across the world." The"forgotten men and women of our country."

特朗普的就职演说基本上是班农式的。一般的就职演说总是带着高瞻远瞩的乐观精神，而特朗普的就职演说却充满了反精英的愤恨。他描述了一种老生常谈的观点："我们中产阶级的财富被自己的同胞夺走，然后在世界各地重新分配。" "我们国家被遗忘的男人和女人"。

White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannonlistens at right as President Donald Trump speaks during a meeting on cybersecurity in the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington, Tuesday, Jan.31, 2017.

Commander-in-chief and Chief Strategist

Trump heaped blame on the "establishment,"which "protected itself" but not American citizens from financial ruin. "Andwhile they celebrated in our nation's capital, there was little to celebratefor struggling families all across our land," Trump continued. "We've madeother countries rich, while the wealth, strength and confidence of our countryhas dissipated over the horizon."

特朗普把责任推给了"建制派"，他们"保护了自己"，却没有保护美国公民不受金融崩溃的影响。特朗普继续说："虽然他们在我们国家的首都庆祝，但全国各地苦苦挣扎的家庭却没什么可庆祝的。""我们让其他国家变得富有，而我们国家的财富、力量和信心已经消失殆尽。"

"America first" is Bannon's economicnationalism in slogan form. Trump's vow to "unite the civilized world againstradical Islamic terrorism, which we will eradicate from the face of the Earth"was a mellowed-out version of the West's battle against "Islamic fascists."

"美国第一"是班农经济民族主义的口号。特朗普发誓要"团结文明世界反对激进的伊斯兰恐怖主义，我们将从地球上根除这种恐怖主义"，这是西方对抗"伊斯兰法西斯主义"战争的成熟版本。

There's more. Trump's remarks that the "Bibletells us how good and pleasant it is when God's people live together in unity,"that "most importantly, we will be protected by God," and that children fromboth Detroit and Nebraska are "infused with the breath of life by the samealmighty creator".

除此之外，特朗普还说到："圣经告诉我们，当神的子民团结一致地生活在一起时，是多么的美好和愉快啊!""最重要的是,我们会受到上帝的保护，"来自底特律和内布拉斯加州的孩子们都被"同一个万能的造物主注入了生命的气息"。

Within days of the inauguration came thedizzying spurt of executive actions—written by Bannon and Stephen Miller, aWhite House policy advisor—many of which contained "extravagant claims notusually found in executive orders," says Andrew Rudalevige, governmentprofessor at Bowdoin College.

就职典礼几天后，白宫政策顾问班农和斯蒂芬•米勒撰写的令人眼花缭乱的行政令迅速涌现出来，其中很多都包含了"一些通常在行政命令中找不到的夸张言论"，鲍登学院的政府教授安德鲁•卢达勒维格说。

Bannon's philosophy toward Islam seemslikely to have influenced the order, "Protecting the Nation from ForeignTerrorist Entry into the United States." Recalling that line about howimmigrants are not "Jeffersonian democrats," the document prescribes ensuringthe allegiance to America's "founding principles" and the US constitution ofanyone admitted to the country, including tourists. Trump also implied in a TVinterview with the Christian Broadcast Network that he wanted to prioritizeChristians refugees over Muslims, accusing the US government of favoring Muslimrefugees over Christians in the past (a claim for which there's no evidence).Some argue (fairly convincingly) that Trump's ban risks lending credence toISIL recruitment propaganda claiming that the US is leading the West in a waron all of Islam.

班农对待伊斯兰的哲学似乎影响了这个秩序，即"保护美国，不让外国恐怖分子进入美国"。这份文件回顾了有关移民如何不是"杰斐逊式的民主党人"的那句话，规定要确保美国的"建国原则"和美国宪法得到包括游客在内的所有美国人的拥护。特朗普还在接受基督教广播公司的电视采访时暗示，他希望将基督徒难民置于穆斯林之上，并指责美国政府过去偏爱穆斯林难民，而非基督徒(这一说法没有证据)。一些人(相当有说服力地)辩称，特朗普的禁令可能会让ISIL的招募宣传变得可信，他们声称，美国正在领导西方发动一场针对整个伊斯兰世界的战争。

Another of the new administration'sfocuses—the danger posed by Mexicans flooding over the border—is also a centraltheme of Bannon's vision of America. Trump's executive action declares that"many" unauthorized immigrants "present a significant threat to nationalsecurity and public safety," though criminology and immigration experts saymost evidence suggests immigrants in general commit crimes at a lower rate thannative-born citizens. "Sanctuary" cities—those that voluntarily cooperate withimmigration enforcement only on deporting unauthorized immigrants convicted ofviolent or serious crimes—are also critiqued in Bannonist terms: They have"caused immeasurable harm to the American people and to the very fabric of ourRepublic." In other words, they do not share America's values.

新一届政府的另一个关注点——墨西哥人涌入边境带来的危险——也是班农"美国梦"的核心主题。特朗普的行政行动宣称，"许多未经授权的移民"对国家安全和公共安全构成了重大威胁，"尽管犯罪学和移民专家表示，多数证据表明，总体而言，移民犯罪的比例低于本土出生的公民。"庇护所"城市——那些自愿与移民执法部门合作，只在驱逐被判犯有暴力或严重罪行的非法移民方面进行合作的城市——也受到讽刺：他们"对美国人民和我们共和国的结构造成了不可估量的伤害"。换句话说，他们不认同美国的价值观。

Finally, Trump's withdrawal of the US fromthe Trans-Pacific Partnership, a multilateral trade deal supported by whatwould count as the "elite," includes a special shout-out to "the Americanworker," the classic Bannon theme.

最后，特朗普将美国从《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(Trans-Pacific Partnership，简称tpp)中撤出，这是一项多边贸易协定，得到了所谓"精英"的支持。

Bannonism begins?

班农主义的诞生？

Bannon savors the power of symbolism. Thatsymbolic power infused Trump's campaign, and now, apparently, hisadministration's rhetoric. After all, as Andrew Breitbart made clear when hefamously dubbed him the "Leni Riefenstahl of the Tea Party," Bannon is a masterpropagandist. He's also a master opportunist, going by his fitful shifts incareer. So it's possible that the narrative flowing through Trump's inauguraladdress and executive actions is simply what Bannon has calibrated over time torouse maximum populist fervor—and that it doesn't reflect plans to upendAmerica.

班农带有象征主义的力量。这种象征性的力量注入了特朗普的竞选活动，现在显然也注入了特朗普政府的言论中。毕竟，正如安德鲁•布莱巴特所言，他把自己戏称为茶党的"莱尼•里芬斯塔尔"。班农是一位出色的宣传家，他也是一个机会主义者，他的职业生涯断断续续。因此，贯穿特朗普就职演说和行政行动的，很有可能只是班农为激起最强烈的民粹主义热情所做的调整——而这并不反映颠覆美国的计划。

There's also, however, the possibility thatBannon is steering Trump toward the "enlightened capitalist," Judeo-Christian,nationalistic vision that he has come to believe America needs.

然而，班农也有可能将特朗普转向"开明的资本主义者"，这是一种犹太-基督教的民族主义观点，他已经开始相信这是美国需要的。

Which it is, we can't know, of course: OnlyBannon knows what Bannon really wants. What we do know for sure, though, isthat a man who has staked out a deep desire for a violent resurgence of"Western civilization" now has the power to fulfill it.

我们当然不知道，只有班农知道班农真正想要什么。然而，我们可以肯定的是，一个曾对"西方文明"暴力复兴抱有强烈愿望的人，现在有能力实现这一愿望。

—— 一瓣

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