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2014年9月14日星期日

魏京生:中共当局的香港做局(The Scheme for Hong Kong by the Chinese Communist Regime / Wei Jingsheng )

港人在中联办拿着习近平的面具抗议北京抓捕高瑜、浦志强、姚文田等


说起香港的事务,大多数人都把它当做中国以外的事务,包括中共也是这么认为的。他们直接就把港澳事务和台湾事务并列。所以全世界也就只能照规矩办事,把港澳划归成和钓鱼岛、南海诸岛一类的,不管是中共有主权还是声称有主权的、但却并没有直接管辖的中间性质的地带。

愤青们对此不满,要死要活的说我们住有军队,那就是我们的地盘。这是土匪和军阀的说法,不懂法律的表现。美国在日本和很多地方有驻军,哪能说日本是美国的领土?

美国人不是土匪,连这种想法都不会有。可怜中国的愤青,拿着鸡毛当令箭,当了土匪还振振有词。和六四屠杀后的王震一样,当土匪还当得理直气壮。其实他们还不如土匪--土匪私下里还知道丢人。

香港的这种地位,是当年愤青们崇拜的邓小平和同样是愤青们崇拜的撒切尔夫人协商制定的香港基本法决定的模式。愤青们要骂就该骂邓小平丧权辱国,骂得着人家英国人吗?

英国人之所以能迫使邓小平低头,或者说邓小平是个伟大的机会主义者,原因是基本法里没有明说的,香港人民的生存条件和大陆的共产党统治有着根本的不同。香港人民已经习惯于有法制、有人权的,接近于民主的自由环境。

愤青们会扼腕叹息说:假如邓大人当时就不给他们什么自治,他们又能怎么样?可惜邓大人他不像愤青们这么傻,他毕竟还有政客所应有的智商。能怎么样?看看现在就知道会怎么样。邓小平当年如果不让步,情况只会比今天更糟糕。直接的结果就是局面不可收拾。

为什么?因为有个规律叫做人类对生存条件的要求,是只能进、不能退。大陆很多人不能理解,为什么香港人宁死不屈地要自由,难道就不会忍一忍吗?那让你们城里人忍一忍,上山下乡接受农民的再教育,你们为什么就不能忍一忍,到现在几十年了还在喊冤呢?

愤青们连乡下的土农民都不如。我下乡时农民们见着我就说委屈了,委屈了。我问什么委屈了。人家很奇怪的看着我说,让你这个城里人到我们乡下来你肯定过不惯,谁能受这个委屈呀?现在香港人不愿像大陆人一样受委屈,宁死也不屈。就是这个道理。

邓大人的智商足以看到这个常识,而且也懂得忍一忍的道理,才不得已承认了香港人民自治的权利。他的做法是把无法解决的问题留给后人;而且采取了温水煮青蛙的策略——一小步一小步地让群众领袖们屈服,总有一天香港人连死都不知道了。那时候就水到渠成,顺理成章地解决了香港真正回归的问题了。这就和1979年打越南一样,假胜利也是胜利,关键看能不能忽悠老百姓。脸往哪儿搁并不重要。

现在小习能像邓老爷子一样虚晃一枪,打不了就撤吗?或者说香港人民已经被煮熟了,可以闯关斩将地收回治理权了吗?好像香港人民还活着,没被煮熟。他们还有拼死一战的勇气,而且是箭在弦上,有进无退了。小习只有退一步才能避免灾难发生。

还是那句话,学学老邓,脸搁哪儿不重要,重要的是审时度势不翻船。愤青们比较傻,设局的人可并不傻。他们正在偷着乐呢。等着小习硬撑面子不让步,那么以广东人的死硬脾气,非得有一场血案不可。那么小习就必须下台。

现在的大陆人民支持香港人民争自由,不会像香港人民当年支持大陆一样温吞水。当年的港支联是一批从亲中派里反出来的人在领导。当时,他们拒绝对共产党痛下杀手,高喊口号送些帐篷就左右逢源了。当然,他们会有各种硬道理说服老百姓,这是左派的强项。

现在的大陆人民早就恨透了共产党,就恨没机会造反呢。就算有香港人侮辱大陆人的前科,就算有香港人不让大陆人买奶粉的前科,也不如造反的机会重要。因为支持香港人民争自由,就是在争我们大陆人民自己的自由。机不可失,时不再来,造共产党的反才是硬道理。

西方也不是老布什求着邓小平要合作反苏的时代了。奥巴马正在并非虚张声势地重返亚洲,想睡了就给送个枕头,到时候习近平如何摆平这个乱局呢?我觉得习近平没这个本事,只能是未雨绸缪把矛盾解决在萌芽状态之中。

如今,中国老百姓已不是当年糊里糊涂任人宰割的老百姓了;国际社会也不是求着中共,任其胡作非为的时代了。有人想当毛泽东,但没人有那个机会了。有人想当邓小平,但历史没把那些条件留下来。而习近平就只能当你的习近平,只能近平不能再平。如果违背历史的潮流那就得下台,连江青挟毛泽东的威望也难免下台。要记住,不是只有薄熙来才觊觎你习近平的那个最高地位。

还要记住,向人民低头并不丢人。像邓小平那样就得后悔一辈子。当年邓小平被人顶着后腰又在私心很重不敢及早下台的心理压力下,一失足成千古恨当了历史的罪人。这是他悔恨但又说不出口的真正原因。不知道小习能不能看懂这步祺。

其实看不懂也不丢人,臭棋篓子占人类的大多数嘛。我倒希望共产党早点儿垮台,又不忍心香港人民流血。好在我不需要选择,是习近平、王岐山在选择。



聆听魏京生先生的相关录音,请访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2014/WeiJS140908HKandChina.mp3

(撰写并录音于2014年9月8日。自由亚洲电台播出。)


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The Scheme for Hong Kong by the Chinese Communist Regime
-- Wei Jingsheng


Speaking of Hong Kong affairs, most people regard them as issues outside
of Mainland China, include the Chinese Communist regime itself.  The
Communist regime directly aligned affairs in Hong Kong and Macao with
Taiwan.  Thus the whole world can only act according to those rules as
well.  They placed Hong Kong and Macao with others such as the Diaoyu
Islands and the islands in the South China Sea -- a zone in the middle
that is not under direct jurisdiction of the Chinese Communist regime,
regardless if it really has sovereignty or just claims so.

The frantic patriotic youths in China would be upset upon hearing this.
They argue that "we have troops there and it is ours."  Their saying so
would be like what bandits and warlords say, without any understanding of
law.  The United States has troops in Japan and many other places.  But
how could anyone claim Japan to be the territory of the USA?

Americans are not bandits, so they do not even have this kind of thought.
But these poor frantic youths in China would treat a feather like an
arrow, to be plausible even though they play the role of bandits.  They
actions remind me of one of the Communist leaders in China, Wang Zhen, who
sounded so righteous and proud to be a bandit, even after the Tiananmen
Massacre in Beijing in 1989.  In fact, they are even less than bandits,
because privately true bandits do know what "shame" is.

This position on Hong Kong was a mode due to the Hong Kong Basic Law
decided in consultation back then between two persons worshiped by these
frantic youths in China: Deng Xiaoping and Mrs. Margaret Thatcher.  If
these frantic youths are so angry with this Basic Law in Hong Kong, then
they should scold on Deng Xiaoping for "giving away sovereignty and
humiliating the country", why did they yell at the Britons?

The reason that the Britons could force Deng to bow, or why Deng could be
a great opportunist, is because of what was not clearly spelled out in the
Basic Law: that the living conditions in Hong Kong were and are
fundamentally different from the conditions of the people in Mainland
China.  People in Hong Kong have become accustomed to a free environment
that has a rule of law, human rights, and is close to being democratic.

The frantic youths will say with pity: if Deng Xiaoping did not give them
so called "autonomy", then what could the people in Hong Kong do?
However, Deng was not as foolish as them, for he did have the IQ that a
politician should have.  What could the people in Hong Kong do?  Look at
now even after 14 years of slow degradation.  If Deng Xiaoping did not
compromise then, the situation would be worse than today.  The direct
result would be a situation out of control.

Why?  Because there is a principle concerning humans' requirements for
their living conditions: they evolve upward, not downward.  Many people in
Mainland China cannot understand why the people of Hong Kong would rather
die for freedom than surrender -- do not people in Hong Kong know
forbearance and tolerance?  We could rebut them by asking if the city
dwellers in the Mainland could tolerate "re-education by the peasants" by
moving to the countryside.  Why do not they know forbearance and
tolerance, yet still claim to be "wrongfully treated" in the past even
only these city dwellers were sent to the countryside several decades ago?

The frantic youths do not have the intelligence of an average peasant in
the countryside in China.  When I was in the countryside, the peasants
told me in an apologetic tone: "Sorry you are wrongfully treated."  I
asked them why.  They said it is because they were concerned that a city
person like me could not get used to the life in the villages and could
not tolerate the hardship.  Now the people in Hong Kong do not want to be
wrongfully treated like people in Mainland China.  They would rather die
than submit themselves, for the same reason.

The IQ of Deng Xiaoping was high enough to recognize this common sense, as
well as he knew the need of forbearance.  Thus Deng had to acknowledge the
autonomy rights of people in Hong Kong.  His approach was to leave the
unsolvable problem to the future generations.  More, Deng Xiaoping took
the strategy of boiling frogs from the warm water -- by taking small steps
to make the leaders of the masses surrender.  One day when the death comes
to the door, the people in Hong Kong would not realize it.  By then, where
the water reached it will be a ditch, the issue of Hong Kong's true return
to China would be solved naturally.  This critical thinking is just like
when Communist China started the Sino-Vietnam war in 1979.  A false
victory is still a victory, for the key is that if the people in China are
fooled.  Where to put his face is not so important.

Now will Xi Jinping be able to achieve what Deng Xiaoping did -- to
withdraw when it is difficult to continue?  Or are the people of Hong Kong
already like the cooked frogs, for the Communist China to easily recover
the governance rights?  It seems to me that people in Hong Kong are still
alive, and are yet to be fully cooked.  They still have the courage to
fight to their death.  They are ready to go without a way to turn around.
Only if Xi Jinping takes a step back, could he avoid a disaster.

Again, Xi should learn from Deng that where to put his face is not so
important.  What is important is to evaluate the situation correctly
without capsizing the ship.  These frantic youths are relatively foolish,
but not so the people who set up the scheme.  They are smiling behind the
scenes.  They are waiting for Xi Jinping to not budge to save his face,
thus to produce a bloody event due to the stubbornness of the Cantonese
people.  That result would force Xi Jinping to step down.

Nowadays, the people of Mainland China support people in Hong Kong in
their fight for freedom, not in the same lukewarm way as people in Hong
Kong supported people in the Mainland back in 1989.  At that time, the
Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements in China
was under the leadership of people who rebelled from the pro-China faction
in the British colony.  They refused to put out the strongest action
against the Communist Party.  They were able to make both sides happy by
shouting some slogans and sending some tents (to Tiananmen Square).  Of
course, they had various ways to convince the people, which is the
strength of the people on the left side.

Now the people in the Mainland have long hated the Communist Party and are
worried about a lack of opportunities to revolt.  Even though there has
been a history of people in Hong Kong insulting people in the Mainland,
even though there were times when people in Hong Kong would not allow
people from the Mainland to buy baby milk for their children, these past
slights are still not as important as the opportunities to revolt, because
to support people in Hong Kong in the fight for their freedom is to fight
for freedom of our Mainlanders.  Now or never, the most important is to
revolt against the Communist dictatorship.

The West is not in the era of President George H. W. Bush, when Bush
needed the cooperation of Deng Xiaoping against the former Soviet Union.
President Obama's returning to Asia policy is not just a bluff.  A pillow
will be delivered when one is getting sleepy.  By then, how will Xi
Jinping settle this mess?  I think that Xi does not have this ability,
thus all he can do is to take the precaution of solving this conflict at
its budding stage.

Today, the Chinese people are not the muddled people who let the others
slaughter at their wish back then.  The international community is not as
it was that it has to please Communist China and let it do anything it
wants.  There is still someone who wants to be Mao Zedong, but he does not
have that opportunity.  There is still someone wants to be Deng Xiaoping,
but history does not keep those favorable conditions for him.  So Xi
Jinping could only be Xi Jinping -- as the meaning of "Jinping", to have
peace in a short and close range only.  When you are against the current
of history, you will have to step down -- even Jiang Qing, who had the
prestige of Mao Zedong, could not avoid that fate.  One should remember:
Bo Xilai is not the only person who covets Xi's highest position.

One also should remember: it is not a shame to bow to the people.  If one
acted like Deng Xiaoping in 1989, one will have to regret it for rest of
his life.  Back then in 1989, Deng had the psychic pressure of being
pushed from behind, yet was unwilling to yield power due to extreme
selfishness.  He became a forever sinner in the history due to that one
strike of wrong.  This is the true reason for his regret, yet he was
unwilling to say it.  I am wondering if Xi Jinping understands this part
of the chess game.

In fact, it is not a shame if Xi does not understand.  Most people do not
really know about chess.  I do hope that the collapse of the Communist
regime arrives earlier, but do not want to see the bloodshed of the people
in Hong Kong.  Fortunately, I am not the one to choose.  It is Xi Jinping
and Wang Qishan who must make the choice now.


To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2014/WeiJS140908HKandChina.mp3

(Written and recorded on September 8, 2014.  Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

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