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2014年9月7日星期日

魏京生:香港民主斗争的前途


前几天和一些智库的朋友吃饭,饭局上谈到了香港最近的政局。香港人民争取基本的民主权利,反对中共操纵的人民代表大会,把大陆的假选举模式硬塞给香港。这是所有人都支持的基本共识。不同意见的争论,产生在对香港人的估计和对共产党的意图的估计上。

美国智库的智囊和台湾的政治家们估计:香港人历来以现实主义著称--在中共以不惜像八九年一样流血镇压的恐吓之下,很快就会退缩,以不了了之为结局。这将使得全世界支持香港人民的朋友陷入尴尬的境地,也将使中国的民主进程事实上倒退。

从新闻里我们看到了:香港民主派的某些大佬,已经发出了退缩的言论。什么从策略上已经失败呀,以退为进呀,等等。这明显是为自己的退缩预做安排找借口,不像一个勇往直前的战士的姿态。

年纪大的人瞻前顾后要考虑的事情太多。共产党又从来就很会利用人们的心理弱点威胁利诱。他们自己的说法叫做做工作,而且经常不着痕迹。我们没证据就不要评论了。正视现实吧。

我和另一些人的看法是:香港人的人权保障和法制都已经退无可退了。大多数香港人民已经产生了危机感,所以运动才会得到这么多人挺身而出的支持。共产党会做少数人的工作,但不可能忽悠几百万人民大众。有骨气的香港人不在少数,年轻的学生们的勇气和决心就是证明。运动也不一定非得要老头子们领导。俗话说,有志不在年高。

老头子们帮助对手散布的恐怖言论里,包括血洗六四在前,抄家黎智英在后。其实违法抄了黎智英的家,正说明香港的法制已经被破坏殆尽了。如果香港人民退让了,你们这些出头的椽子,挑起事端的反中央分子,会因为退缩就被放过吗?

那还真是过去没有发生过的中国梦。刘晓波违心地替中共撒谎,还不是要继续蹲监狱受管制?至今还没有好下场,不得不接受中共监狱的"人性化管理"。香港人民争取应得的民主权利,揭露中共违背诺言,让中共恨得咬牙切齿。一旦中共得手了,会放过你们这些罪魁祸首吗?

大陆的出租车司机听了都会笑。中国的知识精英们真的像美国人估计得那样没出息。好在还有年轻人充当中国的脊梁。他们不在乎血腥的恐吓,不在乎用自己的血肉之躯为香港人阻挡专治恶法的延伸。我敬佩他们。

六四的历史真的会重演吗?我认为不会。香港不是北京,2014年也不是1989年。世界变了,中国也变了,老百姓早就不再把希望寄托在奉旨改革上了。中国的军人也早就为六四的屠杀而深感耻辱了,届时抗命的就不再是徐勤先将军一个人。而中共里也没有了邓小平,也没人想当邓小平。

那为什么中共这次表现得这么强硬呢?有人说是中共的一向表现,这说法不错。但是浅了点儿,没有看到中共激烈的内斗和一贯无耻的手法。所以才会被六四流血的恐吓给吓到了。

据我观察不是这样。这次提前三年挑动香港人民的敏感神经,不像是最高当局的决定。习近平集团上台以来惹出的麻烦够多了。无论内斗还是外斗,都需要全力以赴。哪里有时间和精力在香港提前三年找麻烦呢?

不开辟两条以上的战线,是兵家的基本原则。习近平已经犯忌了,还来开辟第三条战线没事找事。我觉得他要是这么傻,最多当个李鹏,当不了总书记。从他的历史来看,他也不是李鹏那种傻瓜。

那么为什么出了这档子事呢?香港的分析家们又集体脑残了,天天都在分析共产党的内斗,说得天花乱坠、头头是道,唾沫星子乱飞。怎么狼真的来了倒不知道了呢?这次表面的矛盾是共产党和香港人的矛盾,实际上是共产党内部的矛盾。是有人想借刀杀人。

媒体们天天在说:习近平和王岐山如此下狠手整治腐败,在腐败早已普及的中共官场上必然会官逼官反。在没有举兵造反之前,有许多方式可以和平演变地造反。设陷阱让你翻车就是常用的厚黑手法之一。

这次挑起香港事件,绝不是习近平集团的当前要务。在外争国权、内惩贪官的任务中,没有改变基本法和香港人民过不去的空间。这纯粹是节外生枝。但在共产党的专制理论中,又是说得过去,合理合法。经过一番争论后就出事了。

住香港的中共机构就成了急先锋。据说他们的腐败不是内地官员可比拟的。运动一个政协委员就有几千万的利润,现在整到他们的头上了,他们能不拼了嘛?于是就献计于内地的贪官,在香港把事情搞大了,再把自己控制的军队撒出去,来一场新的六四血案。

这个政治责任就得习近平、王岐山来负。这是和平演变中共领导班子的聪明手段,不过是向坏的方向演变。香港人民退缩了,就证明贪官们的估计是正确的。即使搬不倒习近平,乘胜追击香港民主派也就势所必然了。

如果香港人民坚持不退让,一场血案就可能导致习近平下台。习近平就只能出手摆平局面,即使破坏了分工的原则也在所不惜。而且理由是现成的,基本法明文写着必须有广泛代表性的提名委员会。不修改解释很正常,一场危机可以名正言顺地和平解决。

我认为这才是最可能的结果。鄙视那些临阵逃脱的老头子们,敬佩年轻的闯将们。贪官污吏们前途不妙呀。



聆听魏京生先生的相关录音,请访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2014/WeiJS140904HKdemocracy.mp3

(撰写于2014年9月3日,录音于2014年9月4日。自由亚洲电台播出。)

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The Future of Hong Kong's Struggle for Democracy
-- Wei Jingsheng


A few days ago, I had lunches with friends from some think tanks.  During
the lunches, we talked about the recent political situation in Hong Kong.
People in Hong Kong are struggling for their basic democratic rights,
opposing the People's Congress manipulated by the Chinese Communist regime
that forces the fake election mode of Mainland China on Hong Kong.  This
struggle is the basic consensus that everyone supports.  The arguments
given in different opinions concern the evaluation of the Hong Kong people
and the intention of the Communist regime.

Taiwanese politicians and people in American think tanks make the
following evaluation: the Hong Kong people have always been known for
realism - when they are threatened with a 1989-like bloody crackdown by
the Communist regime, they will soon retreat with an outcome of nothing.
This retreat will make their friends around the world who supported them
fall into an embarrassing situation, and as a matter of fact, will also
result in the democratic process in China going backwards.

From the news we have noticed that some leaders of the democrats in Hong
Kong have already issued comments of retraction.  They claimed something
like the strategies have failed, and take the retreat as progress, etc.
Obviously, these comments are excuses for their pre-made withdrawal
arrangements, and are not like the stance of fearless warriors.

These older people are indecisive with too many things to consider.  In
addition, the Communist regime does very well with threats and inducements
by taking advantage of people's psychological weaknesses.  Using the
regime's own words, they are "doing homework", which they often do without
a trace.  Due to lack of evidence at this moment, let us not comment on
this issue.  Let us just face the reality.

My and other people's views are that the protection of human rights and
the rule of law in Hong Kong have been retreated to a corner with no
further place to go.  Most of the Hong Kong people have a sense of crisis
already, thus this movement is receiving the support of so many people who
come forward.  The Communist regime will "do homework" on a few people,
but it is impossible to fool millions of people.  The Hong Kong people who
have spines are not just a few.  The courage and determination of the
young students is proof.  This movement does not necessarily have to be
led by old men.  As the Chinese proverb says: ambition is not measured by
age.

There are scary remarks spread with the help of these old men, including a
repeat of the June 4 Tiananmen Massacre, as well as about the raid at the
home of Jimmy Chee-Ying Lai.  In fact, the illegal raid of the Lai's home,
exactly illustrates that the legal system in Hong Kong has been totally
destroyed.  If people in Hong Kong make concessions, would the Communist
regime forgive the leaders who stirred up trouble against the central
government, even though they have retreated?

It would really be the "Chinese dream" that has never happened in the
past.  Against his own heart, Liu Xiaobo lied for the Communist regime,
yet he still has to stay in jail without freedom.  Till this day, he has
yet to see a good end, and has to accept "the humane management of the
Chinese prisons" (that he praised of).  Now, people in Hong Kong are
struggling for democratic rights they deserve.  They are exposing the
Communist regime that violated its own promise, and thus are hated by the
Communist regime to the extreme.  Once the Communist regime succeeds, will
they let you the leaders go free?

Taxi drivers in Mainland China will laugh when they hear about this.  The
intellectual elite in China indeed is as unpromising as the Americans
evaluate.  Fortunately, there are still young people serving as the
backbone of China.  These young people are not scared of bloody
intimidation, and they would use their own flesh and blood to stop the
extension of tyrannical draconian laws for the people in Hong Kong.  I
admire them.

Will the history of the June 4 Tiananmen Massacre be repeated?  I do not
think so.  Hong Kong is not Beijing.  2014 is not 1989.  The world has
changed.  China has changed.  The Chinese people have long since ceased
their hopes for reform according to the instruction of the central
government.  Chinese military personnel have long been deeply ashamed of
that June 4 massacre.  Should a massacre be ordered, the disobedience
would not be limited to only one person as was the case with General Xu
Qinxian in 1989.  Further, there is no Deng Xiaoping in the Communist
regime anymore, and no one wants to be Deng Xiaoping either.

So why is the Communist regime behaving in such a hardliner way this time?
 Some people say that it is consistent with the typical behavior of the
Communist regime.  This statement is correct, but not in depth.  Some
people do not see the fierce infighting within the Communist regime and
its consistent shameless tactics, thus they are scared when they are
threatened with the bloodshed of the June 4 Massacre in 1989.

According to my observation, it is not so.  This time, it does not look
like a decision of the highest authority in Beijing to move three years
ahead to provoke the sensitive nerve of the Hong Kong people.  Since Xi
Jinping took over power, his clique has stirred up more than enough
trouble.  Regardless whether infighting or outfighting, they have to go
all out.  Where do they have the time and energy to move three years ahead
to look for trouble in Hong Kong?

"Do not open more than two fronts" is a basic principle of the military.
Xi Jinping had already violated this taboo, yet now opens the third front
from nothing?  I think that he would not have become the Secretary-General
of the Communist Party, but to the most become Premier Li Peng, if he was
that foolish.  Examing Xi's history, he is not the kind of fool Li Peng
was.

So why is there this matter in Hong Kong now?  The analysts in Hong Kong
seem to have collective brain damage.  They were analyzing the infighting
of the Communist Party every day with such a hype that seemed to be clear
and logical with spittle flying around.  Yet, when the wolf really
arrived, they seem to not quite know about it?  On the surface, the
conflict in Hong Kong this time is the conflict between the Communist
regime and people in Hong Kong.  Yet in reality, it is due to the internal
fighting within the Communist Party.  Someone is trying to kill his own
enemy with other people's swords.

The media has been saying every day that the tough handling of
anti-corruption by Xi Jinping and Wang Qishan will cause the rebellion of
the corrupted Chinese officials.  But before a rebellion involves the
military, there are still many ways to rebel sneakily.  Setting a trap to
flip the wagon is one of the commonly used conspiracy techniques.

This provoking incident in Hong Kong is by no means a current priority for
the Xi Jinping clique.  As Xi is trying to fight outwards against foreign
countries and meanwhile punishing officials inside China, there is no room
to change the Basic Law and make trouble with people in Hong Kong.  Such
action is purely raising obstacles for nothing.  Yet, in the authoritarian
Communist theory, it is plausible, reasonable and legitimate.  After some
controversy, the accident in Hong Kong happened.

The Communist organizations in Hong Kong have become the vanguard for this
incident.  It has been said that their corruption level is far beyond what
the corrupted officials on the Mainland could be compared with.  Just to
get the title as a member of the Political Consultative Committee would
result in tens of millions of profits.  Now the anti-corruption movement
is targeted at them.  Of course they would put up a fight.  Thus they
offer their advice to the corrupted officials on the Mainland to stir up
the issue in Hong Kong, then to spread out the military they control to
prepare for a new bloodshed like the June 4 Tiananmen Massacre in 1989.

Xi Jinping and Wang Qishan would have to take the political responsibility
for this.  It is a clever means to have a "peaceful evolution" of the
Communist leadership towards a bad direction.  When people in Hong Kong
retreat, it proves that the estimation of these corrupt officials is
correct.  Even if they cannot over power Xi Jinping, carrying on the fight
against the democrats in Hong Kong will become the inevitable.

If people in Hong Kong persist without compromise, a massacre could lead
the stepping down of Xi Jinping.  So Xi Jinping has to come forward to
settle the situation, even though at the expense of destroying the
principle of divided duties within the Communist regime.  Further, there
is the readily available reasoning: the Basic Law expressly stating a
nominating committee that must be broadly representative.  It is very
normal not to modify the interpretation.  Thus a crisis could have a
justifiable peaceful settlement.

I think this is the most likely outcome.  I despise the old men who
escaped like chickens and admire these young people who are path breakers.
 The futures of the corrupt officials are not promising.


To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2014/WeiJS140904HKdemocracy.mp3

(Written on September 3 and recorded on September 4, 2014.  Broadcasted by
Radio Free Asia.)

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